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ENB
Enbridge Inc.
Earnings
ENB | Earnings Review
2. Liquids -12.1% YoY (-C$318M) on absent PY litigation settlement, Line 9 toll resets, lower market access — Mainline itself ran at record 3.2 mmbpd apportioned all year.
3. Cone Wind sanctioned (300 MW, US$0.7B) for Meta data centers — Meta partnership now >1 GW across Clearfork + Easter + Cone; hyperscaler PPA TAM crystallizes.
4. MLO Phase 2 open seasons launched — Flanagan South 200 kbpd + Southern Access Extension 50 kbpd; pre-FID milestone for ~250 kbpd of WCSB egress by 2028.
5. FY26 guidance REAFFIRMED (C$20.2-20.8B EBITDA, C$5.70-6.10 DCF/sh); 5% post-2026 algorithm intact; backlog raised to C$40B with new C$50B unsanctioned framing.
6. Leverage stalled at 5.0x — top of 4.5-5.0x band after C$2B + US$2B note issuance; deleveraging trajectory reversed from Q2'25 low of 4.7x.
7. Mgmt contrarianism: Reaffirmed 5% post-2026 CAGR vs Street ~3-4% — 100-200 bps gap, backed by 20-year guidance achievement streak. Nvidia-style "Street doesn't believe."
| Metric (C$M) | Q1'24 | Q2'24 | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquids Pipelines | 2,460 | 2,456 | 2,343 | 2,395 | 2,621 | 2,336 | 2,307 | 2,446 | 2,303 |
| YoY % | - | - | - | - | +6.5% | -4.9% | -1.5% | +2.1% | -12.1% |
| Gas Transmission | 1,274 | 1,082 | 1,154 | 1,272 | 1,439 | 1,384 | 1,262 | 1,312 | 1,518 |
| YoY % | - | - | - | - | +13.0% | +27.9% | +9.4% | +3.1% | +5.5% |
| Gas Distribution | 765 | 567 | 522 | 1,015 | 1,600 | 840 | 560 | 1,139 | 1,709 |
| YoY % | - | - | - | - | +109.2% | +48.1% | +7.3% | +12.2% | +6.8% |
| Renewable Power | 279 | 147 | 86 | 308 | 241 | 120 | 100 | 211 | 202 |
| YoY % | - | - | - | - | -13.6% | -18.4% | +16.3% | -31.5% | -16.2% |
| Adj EBITDA (Consol) | 4,954 | 4,335 | 4,201 | 5,130 | 5,828 | 4,644 | 4,267 | 5,213 | 5,810 |
| EBITDA YoY % | - | - | - | - | +17.6% | +7.1% | +1.6% | +1.6% | -0.3% |
| DCF (C$M) | 3,463 | 2,858 | 2,596 | 3,074 | 3,777 | 2,903 | 2,566 | 3,208 | 3,851 |
| DCF YoY % | - | - | - | - | +9.1% | +1.6% | -1.2% | +4.4% | +2.0% |
| DCF / share (C$) | 1.63 | 1.34 | 1.19 | 1.41 | 1.73 | 1.33 | 1.18 | 1.47 | 1.76 |
| Adj EPS (C$) | 0.92 | 0.58 | 0.55 | 0.75 | 1.03 | 0.65 | 0.46 | 0.88 | 0.98 |
| Revenue (C$M) | 11,038 | 11,336 | 14,882 | 16,217 | 18,502 | 14,876 | 14,639 | 17,177 | 22,357 |
| Acceleration / Deceleration (bps QoQ) | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consolidated EBITDA YoY % | +17.6% | +7.1% | +1.6% | +1.6% | -0.3% |
| EBITDA Accel (bps QoQ) | — | -1,051 | -556 | +5 | -193 |
| Adj EPS YoY % | +12.0% | +12.1% | -16.4% | +17.3% | -4.9% |
| EPS Accel (bps QoQ) | — | +11 | -2,843 | +3,370 | -2,219 |
| DCF/share YoY % | +6.1% | -0.7% | -0.8% | +4.3% | +1.7% |
| Metric (C$M) | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | 5yr CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquids Pipelines EBITDA | 7,731 | 8,908 | 9,543 | 9,654 | 9,710 | +5.9% |
| Gas Transmission EBITDA | 3,850 | 4,417 | 4,398 | 4,782 | 5,397 | +8.8% |
| Gas Distribution EBITDA | 1,853 | 1,856 | 1,873 | 2,869 | 4,139 | +22.2%* |
| Renewable Power EBITDA | 496 | 522 | 531 | 820 | 672 | +7.9% |
| Consolidated Adj EBITDA | 14,001 | 15,531 | 16,454 | 18,620 | 19,952 | +9.3% |
| EBITDA YoY % | — | +10.9% | +5.9% | +13.2% | +7.2% | — |
| DCF (total) | 10,041 | 10,983 | 11,267 | 11,991 | 12,454 | +5.5% |
| DCF / share (C$) | 4.96 | 5.42 | 5.48 | 5.56 | 5.71 | +3.6% |
| Adj EPS (C$) | 2.74 | 2.81 | 2.79 | 2.80 | 3.02 | +2.5% |
| Total Operating Revenue | 47,071 | 53,309 | 43,649 | 53,473 | 65,194 | +6.7% |
*Gas Distribution 5yr CAGR distorted by 2024 US gas utility acquisitions; organic Gas Distribution growth closer to ~5-6%. The 5-yr picture: headline +9.3% EBITDA CAGR is acquisition-boosted; DCF/share at +3.6% and Adj EPS at +2.5% reveal the true per-share economics — and explain why Q1'26's stall is the moment organic growth has to prove itself.
Trajectory verdict: DECELERATING TO STALLING. EBITDA growth has decelerated cleanly through the post-Dominion acquisition comp window — Q1'25 +17.6% → Q3-Q4'25 +1.6% → Q1'26 -0.3% (first non-growth quarter in this cycle). Q1'26 is mechanically depressed by Liquids -12.1% YoY (PY litigation comp absence -C$318M), absent Renewable Fox Squirrel ITC, and a C$0.07 FX headwind; underlying organic EBITDA still tracks ~3-5% with Gas Tx +5.5% and Gas Dist +6.8% holding the line. The flip in the EBITDA-vs-DCF dynamic is the positive surprise: DCF/share (+1.7%) now OUTPERFORMING EBITDA after share count normalized post-2024 equity raise. Management's reaffirmed +3% FY26 / +5% post-2026 algorithm now requires acceleration in H2'26 and 2027 as Liquids PY-comp eases, US Gas Utility rate cases (Utah, NC, Ohio re-file) phase in, and MLO Phase 2 contributions begin layering.
| Metric | Consensus | Actual | Variance | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adj EPS (USD) | $0.69 (Insider Monkey) | $0.72 | +$0.03 / +4.3% | BEAT |
| Adj EPS (CAD) | ~C$0.95 implied | C$0.98 | +C$0.03 / +3.2% | BEAT |
| Headline Revenue | ~C$13.3B (Street) | C$16.3B | +C$3.0B / +22.6% | BEAT (large) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | ~C$5,850M (guide run-rate) | C$5,810M | -C$40M / -0.7% | IN-LINE |
| DCF | ~C$3,700M (internal est.) | C$3,851M | +C$151M / +4.1% | BEAT |
| DCF / share | ~C$1.70 | C$1.76 | +C$0.06 / +3.5% | BEAT |
| Beat/Miss Heatmap | Q2'24 | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | MISS | BEAT+ | BEAT+ | BEAT+ | BEAT+ | BEAT | BEAT+ | BEAT+ |
| Adj EBITDA | MISS | BEAT | BEAT | BEAT+ | BEAT | IN-LINE | BEAT | IN-LINE |
| Adj EPS | MISS | BEAT | MISS | BEAT+ | BEAT | MISS | BEAT | BEAT |
Pattern: Consistent Beater — Moderating. L8Q beat rates: Revenue 87.5%, EBITDA 62.5% (87.5% incl. in-line), EPS 62.5%. L4Q rates higher: Revenue 100%, EPS 75%. Surprise magnitudes have compressed from the 8-11% range during the H1'25 US Gas Utility integration to a normalized 1-4% range as the Street caught up. Q1'26 (+3.2% EPS, +4.1% DCF, +22.6% headline revenue) extends ENB's 20-year streak of meeting/exceeding annual EBITDA/DCF guidance — putting year 21 on track. EBITDA narrowly missed consensus by 0.7% (-C$40M) but is fully within the FY26 C$20.2-20.8B guidance range. Variance drivers per CFO Pat Murray: Liquids weakness (absent PY litigation settlement, lower Line 9 tolls, lower market access pipeline) and C$0.07 FX headwind, offset by Gas Tx contracting strength and Utah/NC rate case wins.
| Metric | Prior Guide Mid | New Guide (Range) | Consensus | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY26 Adj EBITDA (C$B) | 20.5 (+3% YoY) | 20.2-20.8 (mid 20.5) — REAFFIRMED | ~20.5 (Street ~3% growth) | Reaffirm, not raise — strong Q1 banked as cushion vs flowing through |
| FY26 DCF/share (C$) | 5.90 (+3.3% YoY) | 5.70-6.10 (mid 5.90) — REAFFIRMED | ~5.90 (Street aligned) | In line; Q1'26 DCF/sh C$1.76 puts ~30% of annual already in the books |
| Post-2026 CAGR (EBITDA/DCF-sh/EPS) | ~5% | ~5% — REAFFIRMED through 2030 | ~3-4% (Street more conservative) | Management 100-200 bps above Street — anchored by C$40B backlog + C$50B unsanctioned pipeline |
| Secured capital backlog (C$B) | ~39 (YE'25) | ~40 (+C$1B QoQ) | n/a | RAISED — Cone + Tres Palacios + Vector + Dawn Hub sanctioned |
| Unsanctioned pipeline (C$B) | Not framed explicitly | ~50 — NEW DISCLOSURE | n/a | First explicit framing — supports the 5% post-2026 algorithm structurally |
| Annual investment capacity (C$B) | 10-11 | 10-11 (reaffirmed) | n/a | Self-funded; equity raise risk capped |
| Mainline volumes (mmbpd) | Apportioned guide | 3.2 mmbpd record Q1; apportioned all 12 months | n/a | ABOVE expectation |
| Capital return to shareholders | n/a | C$40-45B over next 5 years | n/a | Anchors the 5%+ dividend yield story |
| Debt / EBITDA target | 4.5-5.0x | 5.0x current — top of range | n/a | Deleveraging trajectory stalled after Q1'26 C$2B + US$2B notes |
| Catalyst | Timing | Consensus / Watch | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLO Phase 2 FID | Late 2026 / early 2027 | Q1'26 open seasons (Flanagan South 200 kbpd + SAX 50 kbpd) launched. Street expects FID by YE'26 — adds ~250 kbpd at brownfield economics on an asset apportioned all year | Largest controllable catalyst — defends premium multiple, frames 2028+ Liquids growth |
| Data Center / Hyperscaler Gas FIDs | Rolling 2026-2027 | 50+ opportunities, up to 10 Bcf/d aggregate. Eiger Express upsized 2.5→3.7 Bcf/d Q1'26. Street has ~C$3-5B incremental Gas Tx FIDs in 2026 numbers — mgmt's pipeline implies multiples higher | ONLY genuine upside-vs-consensus catalyst — long-tenor IG hyperscaler contracts support re-rating |
| Line 5 Tunnel — EGLE Permit | Fall 2026 (public comment May 19-June 30; hearing June 18) | May 19, 2026 EGLE preliminary endorsement to REISSUE NPDES permit. Combined with March 2026 Michigan SC ruling + April 2026 US SC denial of Michigan immunity + Feb 2026 Army Corps Final EIS — legal/permitting wall collapsing | Largest binary event. Approval removes multi-year overhang on ~540 kbpd light crude/NGL throughput |
| MLO Phase 1 in-service | Late 2027 | +150 kbpd add; US$1.4B capex; fully contracted CTS framework | Already de-risked — "in the numbers" for sell-side |
| Ohio PUCO rate case decision | New rates 2027 (filed Dec 31, 2025) | Prior case: PUCO granted -C$26.3M reduction vs +C$211M request. New filing requests ~8.8% / C$7.60/month residential hike. Street wary | Real downside risk if PUCO repeats 2023 disappointment |
| Cone Wind / Meta in-service | 2027 | US$0.7B, 300 MW, 100% Meta PPA. Partnership now >1 GW | In 2027 Renewables EBITDA build — modeled |
| Q2 2026 earnings | ~Aug 1, 2026 | Watch: MLO open-season subscription, data center FID cadence, Liquids segment trajectory, Line 5 update | Critical for FY26 H2 ramp confirmation |
| 2027 guidance / Investor Day | December 2026 | Consensus expects ~5-7% DCF/share growth + 3% dividend hike. Backlog now C$40B; Street probes C$50B unsanctioned pace of conversion | Where the 5% post-2026 algorithm gets stress-tested |
| Fed / BoC rate cuts | 2H 2026 - 2027 | ~C$14B 2026-2027 maturity wall (C$5B 2026, C$9B 2027). Every 100 bps lower compresses incremental interest expense by ~C$140M and adds ~C$0.10-0.15 to DCF/share | Re-rates yield bucket; reduces refi drag on DCF/sh |
| Tres Palacios / Vector / Dawn Hub in-service | 2028-2030 | Q1'26 sanctions add ~US$0.6B+ in storage/transmission capacity | Long-duration but visible 2029+ EBITDA |
| Analyst | Topic / Question | Mgmt Response | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Burwell (Jefferies) | Investment capacity bumped to C$10-11B but 5% post-2026 guide unchanged — reconcile? | Street consensus closer to 3%; ENB "very confident" in 5%. Every $1 EBITDA creates $4-5 debt capacity. WCSB stronger, US utility rate base up to ~10% (vs 8% at acquisition), Power capex likely to EXCEED Investor Day on Meta/MAG7 deals | Well Answered |
| Sam Burwell (Jefferies) | Framework: WCSB growth fills TMX first, then incremental clears via Mainline? | Yes "roughly right." Mainline apportioned 9 of 12 months, double-digit in Jan/Feb 2026. Venezuela 400-500 kbpd is "supplement not replacement." MLO2 solves 2028 egress | Well Answered |
| Rob Hope (Scotiabank) | Does MLO3 require Venezuela clarity, or does Canadian crude find a Gulf home regardless? | MLO3 contingent FIRST on Canadian policy enabling more WCSB production — "production growth first, pipeline second." 400 kbpd Gulf Coast underutilized; re-exports "inevitable" | Well Answered (policy caveat) |
| Theresa Chen (Barclays) | MLO2/3 marginal all-in tariff economics vs Venezuelan rerouting / Mainline ROE renegotiation? | Tariffs "cost informed" — expansions optimize underutilized assets, therefore "inherently efficient" and "in the money." MLO2 reaches full Gulf Coast path. NO specific tariff numbers; sidestepped ROE renegotiation | Deflected |
| Aaron MacNeil (TD Cowen) | Has Mainline demand surprised to the upside? | Canadian supply has "surprised the consensus view to the upside a little bit." Driven by upstream optimizations ("re-rating their kit") + producer consolidation | Well Answered |
| Aaron MacNeil (TD Cowen) | Gas Transmission growth significantly above 5% corporate avg — sustainable? | Multi-year runway: undersupply of pipeline capacity, data center / power demand, Gulf Coast LNG export doubling. Specific expansions: Vector into Wisconsin, Texas LNG1, Algonquin (large), SESH/Sabal Trail. Storage "voracious" | Well Answered (Akman's debut) |
| Maurice Choy (RBC) | 2025 projects ~11% ROCE, 2026 ~10%. Do C$10-20B next 24 months sustain that band? | Returns "probably going to average UP" through time. Renewables mid-teens, GTM strong, Liquids next 3-4 years "some of our strongest," utilities balancing. Risk-adjusted returns also lifting (utility ROEs / equity thickness up in recent rate cases) | Well Answered |
| Manav Gupta (UBS) | Light sweet crude growth — reverse a cross-border light line to feed DAPL (~250 kbpd)? | Confirmed — MLO2 handles light crude path. Reverse a S-to-N line to N-to-S, connecting to DAPL underutilized capacity (ENB owns portion). Light to Patoka and back to Chicago/PADD II. "Few embedded win-wins" | Well Answered |
Q&A pattern (Q4'25 as proxy): ~90% well answered, low deflection rate. Strongest on Mainline apportionment dynamics, Gas Transmission roadmap (Akman's first call), light crude DAPL reversal mechanics, and renewable safe-harbor positioning. Weakest on MLO tariff competitiveness (Gruending sidestepped the spot rate / ROE renegotiation framing) and MLO3 commitment timeline (explicitly contingent on Canadian federal policy). Likely Q1'26 Q&A topics not directly sourceable: (1) Liquids -12% — one-time or run-rate reset? (2) Cone Wind / Meta deal economics — IRR vs mid-teens target? (3) MLO Phase 2 shipper commitments / take-or-pay coverage; (4) Ohio rate case timing and ROE ask; (5) Leverage at 5.0x — does the band widen or capital recycling step up? (6) Line 5 tunnel timeline post-EGLE preliminary endorsement; (7) DCF growth gap — how does H2'26 ramp to hit C$5.70-6.10 from soft Q1?
| # | Topic | Tension | Severity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liquids tone vs Q1'26 reality | Q3-Q4'25: "maximum allowable returns" + record Mainline volumes; Q1'26 Liquids EBITDA -12.1% YoY (-C$318M) on litigation comp absence, Line 9 tolls, market access. Mainline ran at RECORD 3.2 mmbpd yet segment posted biggest decline. Explainable but jarring | MATERIAL |
| 2 | 5% post-2026 target vs Q1'26 run-rate | 5% target reaffirmed in every quarter, but Q1'26 actuals are -0.3% EBITDA / -4.9% EPS / +2% DCF/sh. 2026 disclosed as soft, but the gap puts heavy onus on H2'26 + 2027 acceleration. Mathematically possible but creates a "show-me" story | MATERIAL |
| 3 | Leverage trajectory stalled | 5.0x → 4.7x → 4.8x through 2025; back to 5.0x in Q1'26 (top of range) after C$2B + US$2B note issuance. Within range but directional improvement story reversed | MINOR |
| 4 | Data center narrative vs -16% Renewable EBITDA | Cone Wind / Meta sanction is real, but Q1'26 Renewable Power -16.2% YoY on absent Fox Squirrel ITC. Narrative volume outpaces near-term P&L impact (project COD 2027-28) | MINOR |
| 5 | 5% growth vs ~3% dividend growth | Long-acknowledged structural gap. Pat Murray: dividend tracks DCF/sh growth (~3%); headline 5% framing implies more. Already flagged in March deep dive | MINOR |
No SEVERE contradictions found. ENB's 20-year guidance streak credibility holds — narrative is remarkably consistent across all 7 quarters reviewed; no walked-back guidance, no abandoned promises, no undisclosed surprises. The two MATERIAL items (Liquids tone vs result; 5% target vs run-rate) are not credibility breaches but are the items most worth PM-level pressure-testing. If H2'26 and 2027 do not show acceleration, the 5% post-2026 narrative starts to look ambitious. If Liquids does not normalize as litigation/toll comps work through, the segment's underlying growth rate may be lower than the optimistic Q3'25 framing implied.
| Company / Sector | Relationship | Context | Read-Through |
|---|---|---|---|
| META | Customer — hyperscaler PPA | Cone Wind 300 MW, 100% PPA, US$0.7B. Partnership >1 GW across Clearfork + Easter + Cone | Strongest single-quarter validation of hyperscaler renewables PPA TAM. +ve for VST, CEG, TLN, NEE, AES, BEP |
| NEXT / Rio Grande LNG | Customer — feedgas offtake | Bay Runner advancing; Eiger Express upsized to 3.7 Bcf/d | +ve LNG developers (LNG, NEXT, VG) + Haynesville producers (EXE, EQT, AR, RRC) |
| CNQ, SU, CVE, IMO, MEG | Mainline shippers (heavy oil) | Mainline apportioned all 12 months at 3.2 mmbpd | WCS-WTI diff tightens as new egress comes on; producers can run flat-out |
| KMI, WMB, OKE, EPD, ET | Midstream peers — gas takeaway | LNG feedgas exceeding design; data center gas pipeline opportunity 10 Bcf/d | +ve — Permian/Haynesville-to-Gulf trunklines (Transco, Permian Highway, Gulf Run) |
| TRP, PBA, SOBO | Canadian midstream peers | WCSB egress thesis; Mainline apportioned | Mixed — Keystone (590 kbpd) only viable alt to Mainline; SOBO toll/utilization supportive but ENB's MLO2 captures incremental growth slot |
| VST, CEG, TLN | IPP — gas/nuclear | Meta >1 GW PPA validates hyperscaler PPA TAM | +ve — same demand thesis at higher capacity factors |
| NEE, AES, BEP | Renewables developers | Cone Wind / Meta sets benchmark for hyperscaler renewables PPA | Mixed — TAM validation; ENB now a credible third-party hyperscaler developer at scale |
| MPC, VLO, PSX, DK | Refiners — USGC | Gray Oak >1 mmbpd to USGC; Ingleside dock expansion | +ve refiners w/ USGC access; -ve for inland refiners as Permian barrels leave |
| NJR, SR, ATO, DUK, SO | Gas utilities / regulated utilities | Utah/NC rate case wins; Ohio refile; data center load | +ve — supportive regulatory reads across; data center industrial load |
| RUN, NOVA | ITC-dependent renewables operators | Fox Squirrel Solar ITC absent in Q1'26 drove Renewables -16% | -ve — confirms ITC-driven earnings are lumpy and create post-construction air pockets |