Financial Trends -- 6.5/10
Enbridge delivers steady, utility-like financial growth with limited volatility. Consolidated
Adjusted EBITDA has compounded at ~9% annually over five years (2021-2025), though the organic
growth rate (ex-acquisitions) is closer to 4-5%. DCF/share growth has been more modest at ~3.5%
CAGR due to rising share count and higher financing costs from the US gas utility acquisitions.
The 31-year dividend growth streak is intact at ~3% annual increases. The score reflects consistent
but unspectacular per-share growth, offset by strong visibility from contracted/regulated cash flows
and a deepening
C$19,952M Adjusted EBITDA base.
Weight: 25%
2025 Adj. EBITDA Growth
+7.2%
C$19,952M | 5yr CAGR ~9% | Organic ~4-5%
2025 DCF/Share
C$5.71
+2.7% YoY | 5yr CAGR ~3.5% | Lags EBITDA growth
2025 Dividend/Share
C$3.77
+3.0% YoY | 31 consecutive years | ~66% payout
Debt/EBITDA
5.3x
vs 4.5-5.0x target | Elevated post-acquisition
Annual Financial Summary (CAD M, Calendar Year-End)
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | 14,001M | 15,531M | 16,454M | 18,620M | 19,952M |
| EBITDA YoY | — | +10.9% | +5.9% | +13.2% | +7.2% |
| Total DCF | 10,041M | 10,983M | 11,267M | 11,991M | 12,454M |
| DCF YoY | — | +9.4% | +2.6% | +6.4% | +3.9% |
| DCF/Share (C$) | C$4.96 | C$5.42 | C$5.48 | C$5.56 | C$5.71 |
| DCF/Share YoY | — | +9.3% | +1.1% | +1.5% | +2.7% |
| Dividend/Share | C$3.34 | C$3.44 | C$3.55 | C$3.66 | C$3.77 |
| Div YoY | — | +3.0% | +3.2% | +3.1% | +3.0% |
| Total Debt | 75,640M | 80,980M | 81,199M | 101,672M | 105,024M |
| Debt/EBITDA | 5.4x | 5.2x | 4.9x | 5.5x | 5.3x |
| Diluted Shares | 2,025M | 2,029M | 2,058M | 2,158M | 2,186M |
| Shares YoY | — | +0.2% | +1.4% | +4.9% | +1.3% |
Note: Enbridge reports under US GAAP in CAD. Calendar year-end (December 31).
All figures in millions of CAD except per-share data and ratios.
Total Debt = LT Debt + Current portion LT Debt + short-term borrowings. 2024 jump reflects ~C$19B US gas utility acquisition debt.
Consolidated EBITDA grew 9% CAGR but DCF/share lagged at ~3.5% -- the central tension for ENB.
Adjusted EBITDA reached
C$19,952M in 2025, up 7.2% YoY, but
DCF/share grew only 2.7% to
C$5.71. The gap reflects higher
financing costs and a diluted share count that rose 8% from
2,025M (2021) to
2,186M (2025) due to the equity raise
for the US gas utility acquisition. Total debt rose to
C$105,024M, keeping leverage at 5.3x
vs the 4.5-5.0x target range.
Segment Adjusted EBITDA (CAD M)
Gas Distribution drove the growth story in 2024-2025, but the organic picture is more muted.
Gas Distribution EBITDA surged from
C$1,873M (2023) to
C$4,139M (2025), a 22% CAGR driven
almost entirely by US gas utility acquisitions closing in 2024. Organic gas distribution growth
was closer to 5-6%. Liquids Pipelines, the largest segment at
C$9,710M, grew at a steady 5.9% CAGR.
Gas Transmission accelerated to
C$5,397M (+12.9% YoY), benefiting from
data center demand tailwinds. Renewable Power declined 18% YoY to
C$672M after a strong 2024.
Quarterly EBITDA and DCF/Share Trend
Quarterly EBITDA growth decelerated sharply as acquisition comps lapped.
Q1 2025 EBITDA of
C$5,828M grew 17.6% YoY (first full
quarter of US gas utilities), but by Q3/Q4 2025 growth collapsed to just 1.6%. DCF/share
showed a similar pattern: +6.1% in Q1 before turning slightly negative in Q2 (-0.7%) and
Q3 (-0.8%), recovering to +4.3% in Q4 at
C$1.47. The organic run-rate
growth is roughly 4-5% EBITDA and 2-3% DCF/share.
Acceleration / Deceleration Analysis
| Signal | Detail | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| EBITDA Growth | +13.2% (2024, acquisition-boosted) to +7.2% (2025); Q3/Q4 at +1.6% as comps lapped | Decelerating |
| DCF/Share Growth | +1.1% (2023) to +1.5% (2024) to +2.7% (2025); slow but improving | Slowly Improving |
| Dividend Growth | ~3% annually for 31 consecutive years; C$3.88 declared for 2026 (+2.9%) | Stable |
| Leverage | 5.3x vs 4.5-5.0x target; rose sharply with 2024 acquisition; deleveraging via EBITDA growth | Elevated |
| Share Count | +4.9% in 2024 (equity raise) to +1.3% in 2025; stabilized at ~2,186M | Stabilizing |
| Gas Transmission | +12.9% YoY in 2025 to C$5,397M; data center demand tailwind; 8.8% 5yr CAGR | Accelerating |
| Liquids Pipelines | +0.6% YoY in 2025; growth stalling after +1.2% in 2024; MLO expansions needed | Flattening |
| Growth Backlog | C$39B secured through 2033; C$14B sanctioned in 2025; C$10-20B more expected | Expanding |
2026 Guidance
| Metric | 2025 Actual | 2026 Guidance | Implied Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | C$19,952M | C$20.2B - C$20.8B | ~+3% |
| DCF/Share | C$5.71 | C$5.70 - C$6.10 | ~+3.3% |
| Dividend/Share | C$3.77 | C$3.88 | +2.9% |
| Medium-term EBITDA CAGR | ~5% through end of decade | — | |
| Secured Growth Backlog | C$39B through 2033 | — | |
| Annual Investment Capacity | C$10B - C$11B | — | |
Penalty / Modifier Assessment
| Factor | Impact | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| DCF/share lags EBITDA growth | -0.5 | Per-share metric grew just +2.7% vs 7.2% EBITDA in 2025. |
| Leverage above target | -0.5 | 5.3x vs 4.5-5.0x target; deleveraging path is credible but slow. |
| Acquisition distortion | -0.5 | Hard to assess organic trends with 2024 US utility acquisition in the mix. |
| Quarterly deceleration (EBITDA) | -0.5 | Q3/Q4 2025 YoY growth collapsed to ~1.6% as acquisition comps lapped. |
| Growth backlog visibility | +0.5 | C$39B secured backlog through 2033 is unusually strong for the sector. |
| 20-year guidance track record | +0.5 | 20 consecutive years meeting or exceeding EBITDA/DCF guidance. |
Net penalty: -0.5 points
Score Derivation
| Component | Assessment | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
| EBITDA growth (5yr ~9% CAGR) | Solid for a regulated utility; organic ~4-5% | +2.0 |
| DCF/share growth (~2-3% recent) | Below-average, trails EBITDA due to dilution and financing | +1.0 |
| Dividend growth (3% x 31 years) | Reliable but unexciting; ~66% payout ratio | +1.0 |
| Segment diversification | Gas Tx +13%, Gas Dist growing fast post-acquisition | +1.0 |
| Forward visibility | C$39B backlog, 20yr guidance track record; best-in-class | +1.0 |
| Quarterly momentum | Q1 2025 strong, H2 decelerated as comps lapped | +0.5 |
| Leverage trajectory | Elevated but improving via EBITDA growth | +0.5 |
| Penalty modifiers (net) | See above | -0.5 |
| Total | 6.5 |
Final Score: 6.5 / 10. Enbridge delivers consistent,
utility-like financial growth with best-in-class visibility from a C$39B secured backlog and a
20-year track record of meeting guidance. The score is held back by the persistent gap between
consolidated EBITDA growth (~7%) and per-share DCF growth (~3%), elevated leverage at 5.3x, and
acquisition-distorted trends that make the organic picture hard to parse. A score above 7 would
require DCF/share growth accelerating to 4-5% and leverage trending toward the 4.5-5.0x target.
Transcript Context (Q3 2024 - Q4 2025 Earnings Calls)
US Gas Utility Integration (Q4 2025): First full year of operations complete.
Ohio rate case somewhat disappointing but allowed ROE maintained at 9.8%; new rate case filed
end-2025 with refreshed costs. Utah and North Carolina settlements supportive. Rate base growth
now tracking ~10% (up from initial ~8% target). Gas Distribution EBITDA grew from
C$2,869M (2024) to
C$4,139M (2025).
Mainline Volumes (Q4 2025): Apportioned 9 of 12 months in 2025; averaged 3.1
mmbpd. January and February 2026 in double-digit apportionment. MLO1 (150 kbpd, USD $1.4B,
in service late 2027) sanctioned. MLO2 (~250 kbpd, ~2028) actively commercializing. MLO3 in
early development. Management confident WCSB production growth will continue to support expansion.
Data Center Demand (Q3 & Q4 2025): Advancing over 50 potential data center gas
connection opportunities requiring up to 10 Bcf/day. Storage demand described as "voracious."
Up to 5 Bcf/day of power generation demand growth expected at utilities. Gas Transmission sees
"fantastic opportunities" across the country for "many years." Partnership with Meta and MAG 7
companies for 1+ GW of renewable power to support data center operations.
Dividend / Growth Outlook (Q4 2025): "Very confident in getting to the 5% number"
for medium-term EBITDA growth. Street consensus was at ~3%, management sees upside. $14B of
projects sanctioned in 2025; another $10B-$20B expected over next 24 months. Returns improving
-- 2025 organic projects averaged ~11% ROCE. 31 consecutive years of dividend growth extended.
Key Risks to Score
Upside: 2026 EBITDA guidance looks conservative given
cold weather start and high mainline apportionment. If DCF/share can accelerate to 4-5% growth,
score moves to 7.0+.
Downside: Tariff/trade policy disruption affecting Canadian
crude flows; slower-than-expected leverage reduction; Ohio rate case disappointment; renewable ITC
policy risk from US political changes.
Daloopa and Enbridge Inc. earnings call transcripts (Q3 2024 - Q4 2025)