Financial Trends -- 6/10
Mixed. Revenue and EBITDA growing mid-single-digit on a regulated/contracted base. 20 consecutive
years meeting guidance. 31-year dividend streak. But FCF is declining sharply: $9.5B (2023) to
$5.9B (2024) to $3.3B (2025) as capex re-accelerates (+42% YoY in Q1'26) against softening OCF
(-23% YoY Q1'26). Q1'26 FCF turned negative (-$97M). Share count roughly stable.
Weight: 25%
Revenue/EBITDA Growing
Mid-single-digit
Regulated/contracted base
FCF Declining Sharply
$9.5B to $3.3B
Capex re-accelerating
Q1'26 FCF Negative
-$97M
OCF down, capex up
Dividend Streak
31 years
Durable | Stable
Cash Flow and Capital Spending Trend
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q1'26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Growing | Growing | Growing | Mid-single-digit |
| EBITDA | C$16,454M | C$18,620M | C$19,952M | Expanding |
| Free Cash Flow | $9.5B | $5.9B | $3.3B | -$97M |
| FCF YoY | — | -38% | -44% | Negative |
| Capex | Moderate | Rising | Re-accelerating toward ~$9B | +42% YoY |
| OCF | Healthy | Stable | Stable | -23% YoY |
| Dividend/Share | C$3.55 | C$3.66 | C$3.77 | C$3.88 (2026) |
| Share Count | 2,058M | 2,158M | 2,186M | Roughly stable |
| Guidance Track Record | 20 consecutive years meeting or exceeding guidance | |||
Key Narrative
FCF is the central problem. Revenue continues to grow on a
regulated/contracted base and EBITDA is expanding, but free cash flow has fallen sharply over three
years -- from $9.5B (2023) to $5.9B (2024) to $3.3B (2025). The driver: capex is re-accelerating
toward ~$9B for growth projects while operating cash flow has softened. In Q1'26 the squeeze became
acute -- capex surged +42% YoY while OCF fell -23% YoY, pushing quarterly FCF negative at -$97M.
The durability case remains intact. 31 consecutive years of
dividend growth. 20 consecutive years meeting or exceeding EBITDA/DCF guidance. The regulated and
contracted revenue base limits downside volatility, and the C$39B secured growth backlog provides
visibility through 2033. Share count is roughly stable after the 2024 equity raise for US gas
utility acquisitions.
The tension: growth capex is depressing near-term FCF to fund
long-duration returns. Management is spending aggressively into gas transmission (data center
demand), mainline optimization expansions, and utility rate base growth. If these projects deliver
their targeted ~11% ROCE, FCF recovers as they enter service. If execution slips or returns disappoint,
the dividend payout ratio stretches further and leverage stays elevated at 5.3x vs the 4.5-5.0x target.
Acceleration / Deceleration Analysis
| Signal | Detail | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue/EBITDA | Mid-single-digit growth on regulated/contracted base; EBITDA expanding | Steady |
| Free Cash Flow | $9.5B (2023) to $5.9B (2024) to $3.3B (2025); Q1'26 negative at -$97M | Declining Sharply |
| Capex | Re-accelerating toward ~$9B; Q1'26 +42% YoY on growth projects | Accelerating |
| Operating Cash Flow | Q1'26 OCF fell -23% YoY; seasonal but directionally concerning | Softening |
| Dividend Growth | ~3% annually for 31 consecutive years; C$3.88 declared for 2026 | Stable |
| Share Count | Roughly stable at ~2,186M after 2024 equity raise | Stable |
| Guidance Track Record | 20 consecutive years meeting or exceeding; best-in-class visibility | Durable |
Score Derivation
| Component | Assessment | Contribution |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue/EBITDA growth | Mid-single-digit on regulated/contracted base; steady | +2.0 |
| FCF trajectory | Sharp decline from $9.5B to $3.3B over 3 years; Q1'26 negative | -1.0 |
| Dividend durability | 31-year streak, ~3% annual growth, stable payout | +1.5 |
| Guidance track record | 20 consecutive years meeting guidance; best-in-class | +1.5 |
| Capex re-acceleration | +42% YoY Q1'26; growth projects consuming FCF near-term | -1.0 |
| OCF softening | -23% YoY in Q1'26; seasonal but watch for persistence | -0.5 |
| Growth backlog visibility | C$39B secured through 2033; supports future FCF recovery | +0.5 |
| Share count stability | Roughly stable after 2024 equity raise; no further dilution | +0.0 |
| Total | 6.0 |
Final Score: 6 / 10. Revenue and EBITDA continue to grow on
Enbridge's regulated/contracted base, supported by a 20-year guidance track record and 31-year dividend
streak. The score is held back by sharply declining FCF ($9.5B to $3.3B over three years), capex
re-accelerating +42% YoY in Q1'26, and OCF softening -23% YoY -- pushing Q1'26 FCF negative at -$97M.
A higher score requires FCF stabilization as growth projects enter service and capex intensity peaks.
Daloopa, FYE December 31