Built by Claude Fable

DOCN | Management Quality: 8/10

NYSE: DOCN  | 
Dimension score
8/10
Weight
20%
of composite
Composite
4.0/10
Gate-capped from 4.30
Price
$98.72
FMP quote 2026-10-16

Data note. Daloopa is not connected in this session (see company_resolver.json), so no daloopa.com/src citations are possible. Actuals come from FMP /stable quarterly income, cash flow and balance sheet statements (pulled 2026-10-16, SEC-derived) and from management's own reported figures in the subsequent earnings calls (transcripts/ folder, FMP). Insider data is from FMP /stable/insider-trading and SEC Form 4 filings. Every number below should be re-tied to Daloopa once the connector is re-authorized.

Leadership. CEO Paddy Srinivasan (started Feb 2024; replaced Yancey Spruill under the succession plan announced 2023-08-24) and CFO Matt Steinfort (since Jan 2023, ex-Zayo CFO, BusinessWire) appear on all 8 calls, FY2024Q3 through FY2026Q2. The CEO change is about 2.7 years old, just outside the 2-year red-flag window. Below the CEO/CFO level there was a new CPTO (Vinay Kumar, first Form 4 Jan 2026) and IR changed hands (Melanie Strate to Radu Patrichi in 2026). So the current pairing has roughly 2.7 years of guidance history together, not 3+.

Promise tracking (promises made 4+ quarters ago, scored against reported actuals)

Promise (Source)TimeframeActual ResultHit/Miss
FY24 revenue $775M to $777M (Q3'24 call)FY2024$780.6M (sum of FMP quarterly rev 184.7/192.5/198.5/204.9)Hit (beat)
Q4'24 revenue $199M to $201M (Q3'24)Q4 2024$204.9M (FMP)Hit (beat)
FY24 adj. EBITDA margin 40% to 41% (Q3'24)FY202442% (Q4'24 call)Hit (beat)
FY24 adj. FCF margin 15% to 17% (Q3'24)FY202417% (Q4'24 call)Hit
Enter 2025 with low to mid-teens baseline growth (Q3'24)FY2025FY25 revenue $901M, +15.4% YoYHit
FY25 revenue $870M to $890M (Q4'24)FY2025$901M (Q4'25 call; FMP quarters sum $901.4M)Hit (beat top end)
Q1'25 revenue $207M to $209M (Q4'24)Q1 2025$210.7M (FMP)Hit (beat)
FY25 adj. EBITDA margin 38% to 40% (Q4'24)FY202542% ($375M) (Q4'25 call)Hit (beat)
FY25 non-GAAP EPS $1.85 to $1.95 (Q1'25)FY2025$2.12 (Q4'25 call)Hit (beat)
FY25 adj. FCF margin 16% to 18% (Q4'24)FY202519% ($168M) (Q4'25 call)Hit (beat)
Q1'25 FCF dips, "quickly return to higher margins in Q2" (Q4'24)Q2 2025Q2'25 adj. FCF $57M, 26% of revenueHit
Customer expansion neutral to slightly positive in 2025 (NDR above 100%) (Q4'24)FY2025Total NDR held at 99% through Q2/Q3'25Miss
NDR to stay in a similar range for the rest of 2025 (Q1'25)FY202599% in Q2'25 and Q3'25Hit
Refinance 2026 convert before it goes current at YE25 (Q4'24)by Dec 2025Done Q3'25: $625M 2030 convert plus $380M Term Loan A, most 2026 notes repurchasedHit
Q2'25 revenue $215.5M to $217.5M; EBITDA margin 38% to 40% (Q1'25)Q2 2025$218.7M; 41%Hit (beat)
Q3'25 revenue $226M to $227M (Q2'25)Q3 2025$229.6M (FMP; $230M per call)Hit (beat)
FY25 adj. FCF margin raised to 17% to 19% (Q2'25)FY202519%Hit
2027 revenue growth target of 18% to 20% (Investor Day Apr 2025, reiterated Q3'25 for 2026)FY2026H1'26 growth 22% and 29%; FY26 guide now about 30.5%Hit (tracking well ahead)
2026 adj. EBITDA margin "high 30s to 40%" (Q3'25)FY2026Current FY26 guide about 39%; H1'26 41% / 40%Hit (tracking)
2026 adj. FCF margin "mid to high teens" (Q3'25); 18% to 20% unlevered (Q4'25)FY2026FY26 guide reset to 9% to 12% (Q1'26), now 11% to 13%, after about $100M of startup costs for added 2027 capacityMiss

Hit rate: 18 of 20 = 90%. Revenue guidance was beaten in all 8 quarters reviewed (Q3'24 to Q2'26). Q1'26 came in at $257.9M against a $249M to $250M guide, and Q2'26 at $281.2M against $272M to $274M.

Guidance revision pattern (raises vs cuts)

GuideInitialRevisionsOutcome
FY24 revenueFeb 2024 guide (pre-window, not verified from local transcripts)Raised to $775M to $777M (Q3'24)$780.6M, beat
FY25 revenue$870M to $890M (Q4'24)Held (Q1'25), raised to $888M to $892M (Q2'25), raised to $896M to $897M (Q3'25)$901M, beat
FY25 EPS$1.85 to $1.95Raised to $2.05 to $2.10 (Q2'25), $2.00 to $2.05 after refinancing cost (Q3'25)$2.12, beat
FY26 revenue growth18% to 20% (Q3'25 prelim)19% to 23% (Q4'25), 25% to 27% / $1.13B to $1.145B (Q1'26), about 30.5% / $1.17B to $1.18B (Q2'26)Raised 3 times
FY26 EPS$0.75 to $1.00 (Q4'25)$1.10+ (Q1'26), about $1.40 (Q2'26)Raised 2 times
FY26 adj. FCF margin18% to 20% unlevered (Q4'25)9% to 12% adjusted (Q1'26), raised to 11% to 13% (Q2'26)Cut, then partly restored
2027 revenue growth18% to 20% (Investor Day 2025)30% (Q4'25), 50%+ / >$1.7B (Q1'26), reaffirmed 50%+ (Q2'26)Raised 2 times

The pattern is beat-and-raise. The one exception is the FY26 FCF margin. Management moved from an unlevered to an adjusted basis and chose to pull forward about $100M of startup costs for 60MW of 2027 capacity after the $888M equity raise. On their numbers, excluding those costs, FY26 would be 18% to 21%, above the prior guide. That reset was driven by an investment decision, not by the business underperforming. It is still a lower headline number, and it should be watched.

Red-flag checklist

Red flagStatusEvidence
CEO/CFO change in last 2 yearsNoCEO since Feb 2024 (~2.7 yrs), CFO since Jan 2023
Guidance withdrawn or substantially loweredNo (watch)No revenue, EBITDA or EPS cut. The FY26 FCF margin reset (18% to 20% unlevered to 9% to 12% adjusted) came with a basis change and discretionary 2027 capex, so it is not counted, but it is the nearest miss
Restatement / material weaknessNo (in window)A tax-accounting material weakness in the FY2023 10-K was remediated as of 12/31/2024 per the FY2024 10-K (SEC). No restatement found
Insider selling >$10M in 12 months, no buyingYes (-1)Oct 2025 to Sep 2026 (FMP insider feed): officers and directors sold ~$17.0M (Steinfort $7.7M, Jenson $3.0M, Srinivasan $2.9M, Barrett $2.2M, others $1.2M), mostly under 10b5-1 plans and after RSU vests. Access Industries (affiliate of a 10% owner) sold ~$557M in May 2026. Zero open-market buys
Revenue up, FCF down 3+ quartersNo (watch)FMP GAAP FCF: Q2'25 $59.2M, Q3'25 $57.3M, Q4'25 -$108.1M, Q1'26 $2.2M, Q2'26 $63.5M. FCF fell for two quarters, then rebounded. TTM GAAP FCF is ~$15M on a heavy capex ramp
Failed / value-destroying M&ANoNo material M&A in window. Pre-window Paperspace (2023) underpins the AI platform; AI customer ARR is $234M, +212%
Debt growing faster than revenue 3+ quartersNoFMP total debt: $1.76B (Q2'25), $1.59B, $0.73B, $0.90B, $1.50B (Q2'26). Two quarters of increase. $472M of 2030 converts were equitized in Jul 2026, and pro forma net leverage is 0.7x per the Q2'26 call

Red flags counted: 1.

Scoring math

Assessment. This is a credible, conservative-guiding team. Revenue beat the guide in all 8 quarters reviewed. FY25 revenue guidance was raised three times and FY26 three times so far. The 2027 growth target set at the April 2025 Investor Day (18% to 20%) was reached in 2026, and the outlook is now 50%+. Promise delivery is 90%. The misses are NDR, which management promised would turn into a tailwind in 2025 but held at 99%, and the FY26 FCF margin reset, which management chose in order to pre-fund 2027 capacity. Leadership has been stable under Srinivasan and Steinfort. The CEO's tenure is just under three years, so the 3+ year standard for a 10 is not met. The one red flag is insider selling with no buying: about $17M from officers and directors, mostly scheduled 10b5-1 sales, plus about $557M from the Access Industries holder. The things to watch are capital intensity and the move from self-funded growth to equity, converts and equipment financing (diluted shares went from about 94M to 127M over two years). If management keeps beating while GAAP FCF recovers from near zero TTM, the score holds. If the FY26 FCF guide slips again, that would be a second red flag.


Data sourced from FMP (SEC-derived statements, quote, estimates) and DigitalOcean earnings call transcripts FY2024Q3 to FY2026Q2. Daloopa not connected for this run; figures not yet re-tied. Prepared 2026-10-16.