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CORZ
Core Scientific
Earnings
CORZ | Earnings Review
Core Scientific, Inc. | 2026 Q1 reported May 6, 2026 BMO | Analysis date: May 7, 2026 | Daloopa company_id None
Revenue
$115.2M (+45% YoY)
Mixed: beat ~$111M avg Street, missed Zacks $120M; Q1'26 = inflection point; colocation ($77.5M) overtook self-mining ($30.1M) for first time
Adj EBITDA
+$4.4M (FLIPPED POSITIVE)
vs -$42.7M Q4'25 / -$2.4M Q3'25; first quarter colocation gross profit covers SG&A; margin 4%
GAAP / Adj EPS
-$1.06 / -$0.10
GAAP miss vs -$0.02 cons (driven by $266.5M PP&E impairment + $30.8M warrant MTM); clean -$0.10 vs -$0.07
Capital Structure
$3.3B PROJECT BOND CLOSED
7.75% rate, ~$2.9B net; secured by CoreWeave cash flows; liquidity $1.04B (+$830M QoQ); funds ~1 GW dev capacity
First call after CoreWeave merger termination — and a clean inflection on every operational metric. CORZ's Q1'26 print marks: (1) colocation overtaking self-mining ($77.5M vs $30.1M) for the first time; (2) Adj EBITDA flipping positive at $4.4M after 3 straight negative quarters; (3) $3.3B project bond closed at 7.75% (secured by CoreWeave cash flows, ~$2.9B net) the morning of the print — removes the principal capital constraint on the next 1+ GW of HPC dev. Total revenue $115.2M (+45% YoY) — first growth print since bankruptcy emergence Q1'24. Headline beats vs Street: revenue mixed (beat avg $111M, missed Zacks $120M); Adj EBITDA flipped positive vs ~breakeven Street; GAAP EPS -$1.06 missed -$0.02 cons but driven entirely by $266.5M legacy-mining PP&E impairment + $30.8M non-cash warrant/CVR MTM (clean EPS -$0.10 vs -$0.07). Operational drivers: CoreWeave colocation 243 MW billing (~$350M annualized), 350 MW energized; on track for 450 MW billing by end of summer 2026; 590 MW (full CoreWeave contract) by early 2027. Margin upgrade: cash gross margin target raised from 75-80% to 80-85% on CoreWeave contract (mgmt cites 2 years of cost experience). HPC backlog ~$10.2B over 12 years; pipeline expanded to 4.5 GW with Pecos and Muskogee both being scaled to ~1.5 GW gross. BTC mining wind-down accelerating: only 1-2 mining sites left by YE 2026; ~1,900 BTC sold for $175M in January 2026; self-mining revenue down 73% from Q2'24 peak. FY26 capex: ~$2.0B (~$700M for Hunt County + Polaris/Muskogee acquisitions, balance for ~1 GW new dev capacity); first explicit FY number. SG&A baseline ~$30M/quarter cash. CoreWeave merger context: Shareholders rejected the $9B all-stock deal Oct 30, 2025 (203M Against vs 21M For; ISS recommended Against — Two Seas killed it on valuation); commercial hosting contract survived. CORZ used Q1 to validate standalone path. Tone: most confident call since merger termination; capital structure narrative validated by bond close. Conspicuous Q&A absence: No analyst directly probed merger termination, strategic alternatives, or CoreWeave 590 MW lease security — Street pivoted entirely to forward growth narrative. Key open risk: hyperscaler exclusivity at Pecos/Muskogee EXPIRED in the quarter (no second anchor signed); 3 hyperscalers re-engaged immediately but contract signing still pending — gating event for re-rate. Watch: (1) second-anchor hyperscaler signing (comp benchmarks: IREN/MSFT $9.7B/200MW, CIFR/AWS $9.3B/300MW, WULF $12.8B); (2) Capex pace vs 2027 RFS dates; (3) BTM gas-power monetization at OK sites; (4) Potential renewed take-private bid (BTIG upgraded to Buy post-termination).
Key Metrics Trends
| Metric | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin self-mining revenue ($M) | $111M | $68M | $80M | $67M | $62M | $57M | $42M | $30M |
| Bitcoin self-mining revenue ($M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | -43.6% | -15.7% | -47.2% | -55.2% |
| Hosted mining revenue ($M) | $25M | $17M | $6M | $4M | $6M | $9M | $6M | $8M |
| Hosted mining revenue ($M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | -77.4% | -48.5% | -3.1% | +100.0% |
| Colocation / HPC revenue ($M) | $6M | $10M | $8M | $9M | $11M | $15M | $31M | $78M |
| Colocation / HPC revenue ($M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | +92.7% | +45.6% | +268.2% | +801.2% |
| Total revenue ($M) | $141M | $95M | $95M | $80M | $79M | $81M | $80M | $115M |
| Total revenue ($M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | -44.3% | -15.0% | -15.9% | +44.9% |
| Adj EBITDA ($M) | $46M | $10M | $13M | $-6M | $22M | $-2M | $-43M | $4M |
| Adj EBITDA ($M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | -53.3% | -123.8% | -421.1% | -172.1% |
| Adj EBITDA margin % | 33.0% | 11.0% | 14.0% | -8.0% | 27.0% | -3.0% | -54.0% | 4.0% |
| Adj EBITDA margin % YoY chg (bps) | - | - | - | - | -600 | -1400 | -6800 | +1200 |
| CoreWeave MW billing (period-end) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.5 | 24.5 | 50.0 | 100.0 | 200.0 | 243.0 |
| CoreWeave MW billing (period-end) YoY % | - | - | - | - | - | - | +1112.1% | +891.8% |
| Cash & equivalents ($M) | $0M | $253M | $836M | $780M | $581M | $453M | $311M | $1.0B |
| Cash & equivalents ($M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | - | +79.1% | -62.8% | +28.8% |
_Trajectory: deep J-curve, inflecting in Q1'26. Revenue peaked at $179M in Q1'24 (post-bankruptcy sugar-high), troughed at ~$79M for four straight quarters (Q1-Q4'25), and re-inflected to $115M (+45% YoY) in Q1'26 — driven entirely by CoreWeave colo billing scaling from $31M → $77M QoQ. Adj EBITDA went negative 3 of last 5 quarters (Q1/Q3/Q4'25) and just flipped back to +$4.4M in Q1'26 — first quarter where colocation covers operating costs. Self-mining is being deliberately wound down: revenue from $150M (Q1'24) → $30M (Q1'26); BTC produced down ~75% YoY in 2025; mgmt expects only 1-2 mining sites left by YE'26. Inflection points: Jan-2024 bankruptcy emergence; Q2-2024 CoreWeave deal (HPC revenue starts); Apr-2024 BTC halving; 2025 CoreWeave merger overhang (frozen hyperscaler dialogue); Oct-2025 shareholders reject merger; 2026Q1 — first growth quarter post-merger termination + $3.3B project bond at 7.75% closes 5/6/26. Verdict: Inflection real on operational metrics; sustainability depends on second anchor hyperscaler signing (Pecos/Muskogee exclusivity expired without renewal — 3 re-engaged but unsigned)._
Beat/Miss
Guidance
Catalysts
Street Q&A
Contradictions
Read-Throughs
This Quarter vs Consensus
| Metric | Consensus | Actual | Variance | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Avg ~$111M / Zacks $120M | $115.2M | Mixed | Above avg, below Zacks; +45% YoY |
| Adj EBITDA | ~Breakeven | +$4.4M | FLIP POSITIVE | First quarter colocation covers SG&A |
| GAAP EPS | -$0.02 | -$1.06 | -$1.04 MISS | Driven by $266.5M PP&E impairment + $30.8M warrant MTM (non-cash) |
| Adj / Clean EPS | -$0.07 | -$0.10 | -$0.03 small miss | Clean EPS smaller miss |
| Colocation revenue | — | $77.5M | +801% YoY | Beat — step-function ramp |
| Self-mining revenue | — | $30.1M | -55% YoY | Wind-down per plan |
| CoreWeave MW billing | ~200 MW (start of Q1) | 243 MW exiting Q1 | +43 MW | Beat — on track for 450 MW by summer |
| Capex | — | $389M | ~3x prior trend | Investing into ~$2B FY guide |
| Cash & liquidity | — | $1.04B | +$830M QoQ | Bond proceeds + BTC monetization |
| L4Q EPS beat rate | — | 0/4 | — | Mining wind-down + accounting noise |
| L4Q Adj EBITDA beat rate | — | Mixed | — | Q1'26 the inflection |
Pattern: Q1'26 is THE inflection quarter; prior 4 were trough. EPS missed 4 quarters straight on faster mining wind-down + warrant MTM noise. Q1'26 is first quarter of: (1) colocation > self-mining; (2) positive Adj EBITDA in 4 quarters; (3) revenue growth post-bankruptcy. Mgmt framing: CFO Jim Nygaard called Q1 an "inflection point" — colocation now covers opex; CoreWeave cash GP target raised 75-80% → 80-85%; 243 MW billable ($350M annualized); on track for 590 MW by early 2027. CoreWeave merger termination context: Shareholders rejected $9B all-stock deal Oct 30, 2025 (203M Against vs 21M For; ISS recommended Against; Two Seas killed on valuation). Commercial hosting contract survived. CORZ used Q1 to validate standalone path: closed $3.3B project bond at 7.75% same day; ~$2B 2026 capex; Hunt County + Polaris/Muskogee acquisitions; pipeline expanded toward 4.5 GW. Hyperscaler exclusivity at Pecos/Muskogee EXPIRED in the quarter but 3 hyperscalers immediately re-engaged — flagged as the key open risk to monitor.
Guidance Deep Dive
| Metric | Prior (Q4'25) | New (Q1'26) | Mid / Implied | vs Prior | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CoreWeave cash gross margin | 75-80% | 80-85% | 82.5% | +500 bps | Real upgrade — 2 yrs cost experience |
| FY26 Capex | n/a (no explicit number) | ~$2.0B | $2.0B | First explicit guide | ~$700M Hunt+Polaris + ~1 GW dev |
| CoreWeave MW billing | 200 MW (Q4'25 exit) | 243 MW (Q1'26) | — | On track | 450 MW by end of summer; 590 MW early 2027 |
| Annualized GAAP colo revenue | — | ~$350M (243 MW) | — | — | Implied $700M+ by YE26 at full pace |
| SG&A baseline | — | ~$30M/Q cash | $120M FY | New anchor | Disciplined cost base |
| $3.3B project bond | — | Closed 5/6/26 @ 7.75% | $2.9B net | Capital constraint removed | Secured by CoreWeave cash flows |
| HPC contracted backlog | $10.2B over 12 yrs | $10.2B + bond | — | Validated | Bond market validates CoreWeave contract |
| Pipeline (gross MW) | 1.5 GW leasable | 4.5 GW gross | — | Materially expanded | Pecos 1.5 GW + Muskogee ~1 GW post-Polaris + others |
| BTC mining footprint | — | 1-2 sites by YE 2026 | — | Wind-down accelerating | Most BTC monetized |
| CoreWeave % of contracted revenue | 100% | 100% (still) | <50% by 2028 (silent) | Goalpost gone silent | Diversification target effectively unachievable |
| Hunt County (TX) acquisition | — | Closed Q1'26 | 285 MW | — | MW-purchase M&A pivot |
| Polaris/Muskogee acquisition | — | 440 MW (~$700M combined w/ Hunt) | — | — | Speed-to-market via M&A |
Tone: most confident call since merger termination. Capital structure narrative validated by bond close. CoreWeave margin target raised. Pipeline materially expanded. Risk: CORZ now investing ~$2B capex AHEAD of contracts ("first data hall to RFS" guardrail). If second-tenant signings slip past 2027 RFS dates, uncommitted capacity risk grows. CoreWeave still 100% of contracted revenue — diversification target (formerly "<50% by 2028") has gone silent. Hyperscaler exclusivity at Pecos/Muskogee expired without conversion (mgmt spun positively as "3 hyperscalers immediately re-engaged" but it's been 7+ months without a signing). Power, not capital or land, is the constraint: behind-the-meter (BTM) gas-fired generation now mainstream at ~12-14 month lead times and grid-cost-parity to tenants. Oklahoma BTM legislation explicitly cited as bullish for OK siting competitiveness vs Texas. BTC mining wind-down to 1-2 sites by YE 2026 — bearish read for pure-play miners (RIOT, MARA, BITF), bullish for HPC pivoters.
Upcoming Catalysts
| # | Catalyst | Timing | What to Watch | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Second-anchor hyperscaler contract | Pending — exclusivity expired Q1'26 | 3 hyperscalers re-engaged at Pecos/Muskogee; comp benchmarks: IREN/MSFT $9.7B/200MW, CIFR/AWS $9.3B/300MW, WULF $12.8B | #1 re-rate event — 7+ months without signing |
| 2 | CoreWeave 590 MW full delivery | Early 2027 | 243 MW billing today → 450 MW by summer → 590 MW early '27; ~$725M/yr annualized at full | Locks in $10.2B backlog over 12 years |
| 3 | $3.3B project bond closed | 5/6/26 (today) | 7.75% rate, ~$2.9B net; secured by CoreWeave cash flows; funds ~1 GW dev | Capital constraint removed |
| 4 | FY26 capex execution (~$2.0B) | Through FY26 | First-data-hall-to-RFS guardrail; speculative vs contracted ratio | Investing ahead of contracts |
| 5 | Pecos 1.5 GW expansion | Multi-year | Power capacity build-out; behind-the-meter (BTM) gas commissioning | Largest single-site asset |
| 6 | Muskogee ~1 GW post-Polaris | Multi-year | OK BTM legislation tailwind; integration of 440 MW Polaris | OK as siting alternative to TX |
| 7 | Hunt County TX (285 MW closed) | Multi-year | Greenfield development cadence; ~$700M combined w/ Polaris | MW-purchase M&A wedge |
| 8 | BTC mining wind-down to 1-2 sites by YE 2026 | Through FY26 | Exit pace; remaining hash rate; BTC monetization | NEGATIVE for pure-play miners |
| 9 | Oklahoma BTM legislation | FY26-FY27 | OK siting competitiveness vs Texas; lead times ~12-14 months | Structural tailwind |
| 10 | Strategic alternatives / take-private bid | FY26-FY27 | Two Seas killed CoreWeave deal on valuation; renewed bid plausible post-bond close | BTIG upgraded to Buy post-termination |
| 11 | Hyperscaler 2026 capex $660-725B (+77% YoY) | FY26 | MSFT $80B Azure backlog gated by power; US shortfall 11+ GW today | Macro tailwind |
| 12 | Cash gross margin upgrade 75-80% → 80-85% | Through FY26 | Validation in Q2/Q3 prints | Real upgrade |
| 13 | Auburn AL — 30 MW Tier 3 inference | FY26 | Niche site; original framing as 'major development' walked back | Smaller than expected |
| 14 | BTC price (current ~$82K spot 5/6/26) | Ongoing | Halving impact on self-mining; legacy thesis fading | Increasingly irrelevant |
| 15 | Power capacity / grid constraints | Multi-year | ERCOT (TX), TVA (TN), OK utility commission | Power IS the moat |
| 16 | Q2'26 print | Aug 2026 | MW ramp confirmation; second-anchor signing; capex pace | Confirms inflection durability |
Street Q&A
| # | Analyst (Firm) | Topic | Mgmt Response | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Multiple analysts (Cantor, Needham, Oppenheimer, Compass Point, Canaccord, Macquarie, Craig-Hallum, Ladenburg, B. Riley, KBW) | Q1 print + bond close + margin upgrade | Sullivan/Brown/Nygaard: $3.3B bond at 7.75% closes today; 243 MW billing; CoreWeave cash GM raised 75-80% → 80-85%; FY26 capex ~$2.0B. | Well Answered — quantified |
| 2 | Multiple analysts | Pecos/Muskogee hyperscaler exclusivity expiration | Sullivan: "3 hyperscalers immediately re-engaged" but DEFLECTED on why exclusivity expired and would not commit to contract signing timing. "Hard to determine the exact reasons." | Hard deflection — biggest open risk |
| 3 | Multiple analysts | Pipeline expansion to 4.5 GW | Sullivan: Pecos to 1.5 GW gross (was 200 MW leasable); Muskogee to ~1 GW post-Polaris; Hunt 285 MW; standardized greenfield design. | Well Answered — site-by-site |
| 4 | Multiple analysts | Capital structure / financing | Bond closed today @ 7.75%; ~$2.9B net to corporate; funds non-CoreWeave dev. Liquidity $1.04B (+$830M QoQ). | Well Answered |
| 5 | Multiple analysts | BTC self-mining wind-down | Sullivan: 1-2 sites by YE 2026; ~1,900 BTC sold for $175M January 2026; mining "in runoff." | Well Answered — explicit timeline |
| 6 | Multiple analysts | Brownfield vs greenfield strategy | Brown: brownfield conversions explicitly called out as harder than expected; go-forward greenfield-only with standardized design. | Well Answered — candid |
| 7 | Multiple analysts | Behind-the-meter (BTM) gas power | Sullivan: ~12-14 month lead times added; blended cost "not materially different" from grid; OK BTM legislation tailwind. | Well Answered — quantified lead time |
| 8 | Multiple analysts | CoreWeave contract security post-merger termination | Mgmt deflected indirectly — no analyst directly probed; merger break did not disrupt commercial contract. | Conspicuous absence |
| 9 | (Not asked) | Strategic alternatives / take-private bid | Not pressed by Street. BTIG separately upgraded to Buy post-termination. | Blind spot |
| 10 | (Not asked) | Two Seas / merger termination details | Not directly probed. Sullivan validated standalone path implicitly through bond close + capex pace. | Blind spot |
Contradictions
| # | Topic | Severity | Statement A | Statement B | Why it's a tension |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CoreWeave <50% by 2028 diversification target | High — silent goalpost | Q4'24 / Q1'25: "Customer concentration target: CoreWeave <50% by 2028" (repeated verbatim) | Q4'25 / Q1'26: NO MENTION of <50% by 2028 target | With still 0% diversification as of May 2026, the target is effectively unachievable but never formally retracted. Material messaging tension. |
| 2 | BTC mining strategy | Medium — strategic pivot | Q4'24 / Q1'25: Block 3nm ASIC purchase as "exciting fleet refresh"; BTC holdings as "hedge to retain upside" | Q4'25 / Q1'26: Mining "in runoff"; BTC monetized (~1,900 sold for $175M); only 1-2 sites by YE 2026 | Strategic pivot from BTC self-mining to HPC-only happened over 2025; not formally announced as pivot. |
| 3 | Pipeline / enterprise narrative | Medium — channel disappeared | Q1'25: 50-100 MW enterprise channel as "significant growth factor" | Q4'25 / Q1'26: Enterprise channel disappeared; investment-grade guarantees declared mandatory | Neocloud counterparty confidence retracted in Q4'25. |
| 4 | 250 MW by YE 2025 target | Low-Medium — definition shift | Q4'24: "250 MW billable by YE 2025" | YE 2025 actual: 213 MW energized; metric redefined from 'billable' to 'energized' mid-stream | Missed target; metric redefinition obscures miss. |
| 5 | Pre-merger CoreWeave framing | Medium — admitted ex-post | Q1'25: Merger as purely accretive; no concentration concern | Q4'25 / Q1'26: Mgmt admitted merger period FROZE hyperscaler engagement; merger termination unfreezes pipeline | Admitted ex-post that merger had real customer-engagement cost. |
| 6 | Capital-light narrative | Medium — narrative reversal | Q1'25: "Capital-light balance sheet" framing | Q1'26: $3.3B project bond at 7.75%; liquidity fell $830M → $530M before bond; total debt now ~$2.06B | Capital-light narrative ended; CORZ now levered to fund growth. Justified by contracted CoreWeave cash flows. |
| 7 | Auburn AL framing | Low — scope reduction | Q4'24: Auburn as "potentially major development" | Q4'25: Auburn = 30 MW Tier 3 niche inference site | Material scope reduction. |
| 8 | 590 MW by early 2027 | None — consistent | All 4 calls: 590 MW CoreWeave by early 2027 | — | Consistent across all 4 calls. |
| 9 | Cash gross margin target | None — positive revision | Q1'26: 75-80% → 80-85% | — | Positively revised with more visibility — not a contradiction. |
Indirect Read-Throughs
| Name | Relationship | What CORZ signaled | Read-through |
|---|---|---|---|
| CoreWeave (CRWV) | Major customer + ex-merger partner | Cash GM target raised 75-80% → 80-85%; schedule on track; bond market validated CRWV cash flows; merger terminated but commercial relationship intact | POSITIVE — execution validation |
| IREN (Iris Energy) | Bitcoin miner pivoting to HPC peer | Comp benchmark: IREN/MSFT $9.7B / 200 MW deal — sets pricing reference for CORZ second-anchor signing | POSITIVE — comp benchmark |
| Cipher Mining (CIFR) | Bitcoin miner pivoting to HPC peer | Comp benchmark: CIFR/AWS $9.3B / 300 MW deal | POSITIVE — comp benchmark |
| TeraWulf (WULF) | Bitcoin miner pivoting to HPC peer | Comp benchmark: WULF $12.8B in AI contracts; bond-market template validated | POSITIVE |
| Riot Platforms (RIOT) / Marathon Digital (MARA) / Bitfarms (BITF) | Pure-play BTC mining peers | CORZ exiting BTC mining entirely by YE 2026 (1-2 sites left); 1,900 BTC sold for $175M Jan 2026 | NEGATIVE — sector consolidation; HPC pivot is the future |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | Hyperscaler — re-engaged at Pecos/Muskogee | MSFT $80B Azure backlog gated by power; one of 3 hyperscalers re-engaged after exclusivity expired | POSITIVE for CORZ if signed; reflects MSFT power scarcity |
| Google (GOOGL) / AWS (AMZN) / Meta (META) / Oracle (ORCL) | Hyperscalers (general) | 2026 capex $660-725B (+77% YoY); US power shortfall 11+ GW today | POSITIVE — demand backdrop |
| NVIDIA (NVDA) / AMD | GPU suppliers | Not directly named; CORZ is power infrastructure for GPUs | NEUTRAL — adjacent |
| Equinix (EQIX) / Digital Realty (DLR) | Data center REITs | Not directly named; CORZ competes on speed-to-market for hyperscaler AI capacity | MIXED — different products (CORZ = greenfield AI capacity, EQIX/DLR = retail/wholesale colo) |
| Texas grid (ERCOT) / Oklahoma utility commission | Power suppliers | OK BTM legislation cited; OK siting now competitive vs TX; ERCOT rules favor BTM | POSITIVE for OK; competitive for TX |
| Tennessee (TVA) | Power supplier (Marble NC area) | Not directly named | Neutral |
| BlackRock (BLK) / Fidelity / Bitcoin ETFs | BTC ETF / spot players | BTC monetization happened in January 2026 at favorable prices | Indirect |
| Polaris (acquired) | M&A target | 440 MW Muskogee acquisition; integration plan | Strategic — speed-to-market |
| Hunt County TX (acquired) | M&A target | 285 MW; ~$700M combined with Polaris | Strategic — MW-purchase M&A wedge |
| Two Seas (activist) | Killed CoreWeave merger | Not directly named on call; killed deal on valuation | Potential renewed take-private bid |
| BTIG (sell-side) | Sell-side analyst | Upgraded CORZ to Buy post-termination | POSITIVE sentiment |
Data sourced from Daloopa. Document search is currently in beta; transcript and filing snippets may vary.