Financial Trends -- 3/10
CORZ financial trends score a weak 3/10. Revenue declined -38% YoY ($515M to $319M) as Bitcoin mining
revenue collapsed post-halving. The colocation (AI/HPC) pivot is real -- growing +168% YoY to $65.4M --
but remains far too small to offset mining decline. Free cash flow is deeply negative, the company is
liquidating BTC holdings and issuing dilutive convertible debt to fund operations. Dilution is severe
at +24% YoY share growth. Gross margin is a thin 17.1%, operating margin is -55.3%, and adjusted EBITDA
swings between slightly positive and negative. The financial profile is that of a pre-revenue
infrastructure buildout, not a proven business. Quality gates all fail: negative FCF, post-bankruptcy
(Jan 2024), no oligopoly position.
Weight: 25%
FY2025 Revenue
$319M
-38% YoY | mining collapse
TTM EPS
-$0.88
Net loss -$280.7M (non-cash distorted)
Gross Margin
17.1%
Thin | Op margin -55.3%
Q3 2025 FCF
-$112.7M
OCF $131.8M less capex -$244.5M
Revenue Trajectory (Annual, USD M) -- Calendar FY
Revenue declined -38% YoY -- mining collapse overwhelms colocation ramp.
Self-mining revenue fell -44% ($409M to $229M) from the Bitcoin halving impact and
hosted mining collapsed -71% ($82M to $24M). Colocation grew +168% ($24.4M to $65.4M) but
at only $65M it cannot offset a ~$238M decline in mining. The company guides to ~$360M
annualized colocation revenue entering 2026, implying a massive step-up -- this is
execution-dependent and not yet proven.
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue ($M) | $515M | $319M |
| YoY Growth | — | -38% |
| Colocation (AI/HPC) | $24.4M | $65.4M |
| Colo YoY | — | 168% |
| Self-Mining | $409M | $229M |
| Mining YoY | — | -44% |
| Hosted Mining | $82M | $24M |
| Hosted YoY | — | -71% |
FY2025 colocation guided to ~$360M annualized run-rate entering 2026. Mining revenue highly sensitive to BTC price and halving cycle. Data from CORZ 10-K/10-Q filings.
Quarterly Revenue (FY2025) and Colocation Ramp
Total quarterly revenue was essentially flat through FY2025 (~$79-81M/quarter) while colocation tripled in Q4.
Colocation ramped from ~$10M/quarter to $31.3M in Q4, but mining revenue declined faster
than colocation grew. Q4 colocation was 39.2% of total revenue vs ~12-15% in Q1-Q3 --
the mix shift is accelerating but total revenue has not inflected upward yet.
| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue ($M) | $79.5M | $78.6M | $81.1M | $79.8M |
| Colocation ($M) | $10M | $12M | $12M | $31.3M |
| Colo % of Total | 12.6% | 15.3% | 14.8% | 39.2% |
Q4 colocation of $31.3M disclosed in filings. Q1-Q3 colocation estimated from full-year total of $65.4M. Data from CORZ 10-K/10-Q filings.
Profitability: Deep Losses Persist
Gross margin is a thin 17.1% and operating margin is deeply negative at -55.3%.
TTM net income of -$280.7M is heavily distorted by non-cash mark-to-market on warrants/CVRs.
Adjusted EBITDA swings between slightly positive ($21.5M in Q2) and negative (-$6.1M in Q1,
-$2.4M in Q3). Q4 2025 reported net income of $216M appears to be a reversal of prior non-cash
charges, not operational profitability. There is no consistent earnings power here.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 17.1% |
| Operating Margin | -55.3% |
| TTM Net Income | -$280.7M |
| TTM EBITDA | -$107.4M |
| TTM EPS | -$0.88 |
TTM net income distorted by non-cash mark-to-market on warrants/CVRs. Q4 2025 net income of $216M is a non-cash reversal. Data from CORZ 10-K/10-Q filings.
Free Cash Flow: Deeply Negative (Heavy Capex Phase)
FCF is deeply negative -- Q3 2025 alone was -$112.7M despite $131.8M in operating cash flow.
Capex of -$244.5M in Q3 reflects the massive AI data center buildout. CoreWeave funds ~80%
of capex ($196.4M of $244.5M in Q3), but CORZ still bleeds cash on its own portion. The
nine months ended Sept 2025 showed operating cash flow of $125.2M, driven largely by $323.8M
in deferred revenue (advance payments from CoreWeave). The company is selling Bitcoin to fund
operations -- sold 1,900 BTC ($175M) in Jan 2026 and plans to monetize substantially all
remaining holdings. Penalty: -2 for negative FCF.
| Cash Flow Item | Q3 2025 | 9M 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $131.8M | $125.2M |
| Capex | -$244.5M | — |
| Free Cash Flow | -$112.7M | — |
| CoreWeave Capex Reimbursement | $196.4M | — |
| Deferred Revenue (CoreWeave) | — | $323.8M |
CoreWeave funds ~80% of capex. CORZ sold 1,900 BTC ($175M) in Jan 2026 to fund operations. Plans to monetize substantially all remaining BTC. Data from CORZ 10-K/10-Q filings.
Balance Sheet: Leveraged with Convertible Overhang
$1.16B in convertible debt with significant dilution overhang. Altman Z-Score of -1.8 is in the distress zone.
Cash of $311M plus ~$222M in BTC at year-end 2025 provides some buffer, but net debt is
~$630M. Current ratio of 1.15 is tight. Piotroski F-Score of 3 signals fundamental weakness.
The convertible notes at 0-3% interest are cheap financing, but the conversion prices ($5.83,
$11.00, $22.49) create massive dilution overhang with the stock at $16.23.
| Balance Sheet | Value |
|---|---|
| Cash | $311M |
| BTC Holdings (YE 2025) | $222M |
| Total Debt (Converts) | $1,160M |
| Net Debt (ex BTC) | $630M |
| Current Ratio | 1.15x |
| Altman Z-Score | -1.8 |
| Piotroski F-Score | 3 |
Convertible notes at 0-3% coupon. Mandatory conversion of secured notes at $5.83. BTC being liquidated to fund operations. Data from CORZ 10-K/10-Q filings.
Dilution: Severe (+24% YoY Share Growth)
Shares outstanding grew +24.3% YoY -- severe dilution from convertible debt conversions.
Multiple convertible note offerings in 2024: $400M at $11 conversion, $550M at $22.49 conversion,
plus mandatory conversion of secured notes at $5.83. Fully diluted share count of ~501M vs
basic ~315M represents a 59% dilution overhang. Total convertible debt exceeds $1B with
significant further dilution risk. Penalty: -1 for severe dilution.
| Dilution Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| YoY Share Growth | +24.3% |
| Basic Shares Outstanding | ~315M |
| Fully Diluted Shares | ~501M |
| Dilution Overhang | ~186M shares (59%) |
| Convert: $400M @ $11.00 | In the money at $16.23 |
| Convert: $550M @ $22.49 | Out of the money |
| Convert: Secured @ $5.83 | Mandatory -- already converted |
$400M convert is in the money at current price of $16.23. Mandatory secured note conversions drove bulk of +24% dilution. Data from CORZ 10-K/10-Q filings.
Forward Estimates and Valuation Context
Forward P/E
118x
Consensus expects thin profitability
Forward P/S
7.88x
Implies ~$650M revenue
5Y Rev CAGR (Analyst)
54%
Ambitious -- execution-dependent
Guided Colo Run-Rate
~$360M
Annualized entering 2026
Forward P/E of 118x and P/S of 7.88x price in massive growth that has not yet materialized.
Analyst consensus forecasts a 54% revenue CAGR over 5 years, driven entirely by the colocation
pivot. The ~$360M guided colocation run-rate entering 2026 implies a 5.5x increase from FY2025
levels of $65M. This would be transformative if achieved, but it depends on CoreWeave contract
execution (single-customer concentration risk with a $10B+ contract) and successful data center
buildout in a capital-constrained environment.
Forward P/E and P/S based on consensus as of March 2026. 5Y CAGR is analyst consensus -- heavily dependent on colocation ramp. Data from CORZ filings and analyst estimates.
Key Financial Signals
Positive Signals
1. Colocation growing +168% YoY -- real AI/HPC demand, not just a narrative
2. Q4 colocation of $31.3M -- meaningful acceleration, ~$125M annualized
3. Guided ~$360M colo run-rate -- would represent transformative revenue mix shift
4. Cheap convertible financing -- 0-3% coupon on $1.16B in debt
5. CoreWeave funds ~80% of capex -- reduces cash burn on buildout
2. Q4 colocation of $31.3M -- meaningful acceleration, ~$125M annualized
3. Guided ~$360M colo run-rate -- would represent transformative revenue mix shift
4. Cheap convertible financing -- 0-3% coupon on $1.16B in debt
5. CoreWeave funds ~80% of capex -- reduces cash burn on buildout
Negative / Concerning Signals
1. Revenue -38% YoY -- mining collapse overwhelms colocation growth
2. Deeply negative FCF -- cannot self-fund; relies on CoreWeave, converts, BTC sales
3. Severe dilution (+24% YoY) -- fully diluted shares 59% above basic count
4. Post-bankruptcy (Jan 2024) -- less than 3 years since emergence
5. Altman Z-Score -1.8 -- firmly in distress zone
6. Single-customer concentration -- CoreWeave is the colocation pivot
7. Liquidating BTC to fund ops -- selling substantially all holdings
8. Adj EBITDA swings +/- -- no consistent earnings power
2. Deeply negative FCF -- cannot self-fund; relies on CoreWeave, converts, BTC sales
3. Severe dilution (+24% YoY) -- fully diluted shares 59% above basic count
4. Post-bankruptcy (Jan 2024) -- less than 3 years since emergence
5. Altman Z-Score -1.8 -- firmly in distress zone
6. Single-customer concentration -- CoreWeave is the colocation pivot
7. Liquidating BTC to fund ops -- selling substantially all holdings
8. Adj EBITDA swings +/- -- no consistent earnings power
Score Penalty Modifiers
| Modifier | Impact | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Negative FCF (heavy capex phase) | -2.0 | Cannot self-fund; relies on CoreWeave reimbursement, converts, BTC liquidation |
| Severe dilution (+24% YoY) | -1.0 | Multiple convertible offerings; fully diluted 501M vs basic 315M |
| Post-bankruptcy (Jan 2024) | Cap 4.0-5.5 | Quality gate: less than 3 years since emergence -- max score capped |
| No oligopoly position | Cap | Quality gate: no durable competitive moat in mining or colocation |
| Colocation growth (+168%) | +0.5 | Real AI/HPC demand; Q4 acceleration to $31.3M |
| CoreWeave capex reimbursement | +0.5 | ~80% of capex funded by customer -- reduces self-funded cash burn |
Base score penalized by -2 (negative FCF) and -1 (dilution). Quality gates (negative FCF, post-bankruptcy, no oligopoly) cap max score at 4.0-5.5. Final: 3.0/10. Data from CORZ filings and dim_1 scoring framework.