CBOE | Earnings Review — Q2 2026

Cboe printed a soft double beat and a second consecutive upward revision to full-year organic growth, while absolute levels set another record. Net revenue reached $731.6M (+24.6% YoY vs $587.3M), beating FMP consensus $718.6M by +1.8%. Adj. diluted EPS $3.56 (+44.7% YoY vs $2.46) beat $3.48 by +2.3%. Adj. operating EBITDA $528.4M at 72.2% margin (~+710 bps YoY vs prior-year adj. EBITDA margin). Options net revenue $473.9M (+29.9% YoY) remains the tempo-setter; Data Vantage $177.8M (+14.6% YoY).

Trajectory: Mildly decelerating off the Q1'26 peak (NR YoY +29.0% → +24.6%; adj. EPS +48.0% → +44.7%) — a modest cool-off, not a regime change. Both remain far above the mid-single to low-double-digit 2024 run-rate. L4Q EPS beat rate 100% (L12Q 67%); beat magnitude improved vs prior year but compressed vs Q1's +10.8% peak as estimates caught up into the print.

New guidance: Organic total NR growth raised to mid-to-high teens (from low-double-digit to mid-teens); Data Vantage organic to low teens; adj. opex reaffirmed $838–$853M (embeds ~$11M Australia reduction); CapEx raised to $98–$108M; D&A lowered to $54–$58M; tax unchanged 27.5–29.5%. New organic mid (~16.5%) roughly matches FMP ~17% 2026E; H1 run-rate (+26.7% NR YoY) still runs ahead of full-year organic.

Tone: Constructive upgrade — Q1 was the cost/realignment call; Q2 is the demand/reinvestment call. Product Q&A dense and quantified (perps complementary; KPI $0 in 2026 guide; PDT retail data). Explicit conservatism on unproven product revenue.

Contradictions: Six found — highest is same-call FX wind-down language vs Global FX as strongest growth segment (+38% YoY in Q1). Opening 2026 organic/DV guides were narratively over-conservative and raised twice.

Catalysts into Q3/Q4: (1) SEC KPI contracts target late Sep/early Oct ($0 in 2026 guide); (2) Australia Q3 close; (3) durability of raised mid-to-high-teens organic NR on index options / Data Vantage. Street still prices prediction markets as 2027+ optionality.

Primary KPI lens: net revenue (total revenues less cost of revenues). Segment drivers = segment net revenue. Headline profitability = adj. operating EBITDA margin and adj. diluted EPS.

Consolidated quarterly

| Metric | Q3'23 | Q4'23 | Q1'24 | Q2'24 | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Q2'26 | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | Net revenue ($M) | 480.5 | 499.0 | 502.1 | 513.8 | 532.0 | 524.5 | 565.2 | 587.3 | 605.5 | 671.1 | 728.9 | 731.6 | | Net revenue YoY% | +8.6% | +9.2% | +6.5% | +10.0% | +10.7% | +5.1% | +12.6% | +14.3% | +13.8% | +28.0% | +29.0% | +24.6% | | Adj. diluted EPS ($) | 2.06 | 2.06 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2.22 | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.46 | 2.67 | 3.06 | 3.70 | 3.56 | | Adj. EPS YoY% | +18.4% | +14.4% | +13.2% | +20.8% | +7.8% | +1.9% | +16.3% | +14.4% | +20.3% | +45.7% | +48.0% | +44.7% | | Adj. EBITDA mgn % (of NR) | 66.7 | 64.3 | 67.2 | 66.3 | 64.3 | 63.2 | 67.9 | 65.1 | 68.6 | 69.2 | 74.7 | 72.6 | | Adj. op. EBITDA mgn % | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 67.5 | 69.2 | 74.2 | 72.2 |

Segment net revenue (selected)

| Metric | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Q2'26 | Q2 YoY | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | Options NR ($M) | 320.9 | 324.3 | 352.4 | 364.8 | 380.8 | 433.1 | 467.6 | 473.9 | +29.9% | | Data & Access NR ($M) | 142.5 | 145.9 | 149.4 | 155.1 | 158.9 | 159.5 | 177.8 | 177.8 | +14.6% | | NA Equities NR ($M) | 98.0 | 94.9 | 94.6 | 98.4 | 103.5 | 110.7 | 111.2 | 114.7 | +16.6% | | Europe & APAC NR ($M) | 55.6 | 56.2 | 64.1 | 70.4 | 69.1 | 69.9 | 84.9 | 84.8 | +20.5% | | Global FX NR ($M) | 20.0 | 19.4 | 21.3 | 23.6 | 22.5 | 23.7 | 29.4 | 27.6 | +16.9% | | Futures NR ($M) | 38.0 | 30.2 | 32.8 | 30.1 | 29.6 | 33.7 | 35.8 | 30.6 | +1.7% |

YoY growth chart (trajectory)

Verdict — mildly decelerating off peak, still multi-year accelerated. Options re-accelerated from high-single-digit YoY through most of 2024 to +30–34% in Q4'25–Q1'26, then still-strong +29.9% in Q2'26. Data & Access stepped up to +14.6% / +19.0% in H1'26. Adj. EBITDA margin expanded +430 to +750 bps YoY for four straight quarters. Futures remains the laggard (+1.7%).

Annual (5 years)

| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | Net revenue ($M) | 1,476.1 | 1,741.7 | 1,918.0 | 2,072.4 | 2,429.1 | | Net revenue YoY% | — | +18.0% | +10.1% | +8.1% | +17.2% | | Adj. diluted EPS ($) | 6.05 | 6.93 | 7.80 | 8.61 | 10.67 | | Adj. EPS YoY% | — | +14.5% | +12.6% | +10.4% | +23.9% | | Adj. EBITDA mgn % | 66.9 | 65.2 | 64.9 | 65.2 | 67.7 |

Annual NR grew ~+13% CAGR FY21–FY25; re-accelerated to +17.2% in FY25 after decelerating through FY24.

This quarter vs consensus

| Metric | Consensus | Actual | Variance | Status | |---|---:|---:|---:|---| | Adj. diluted EPS | $3.48 (FMP) | $3.56 | +$0.08 / +2.3% | BEAT | | Net revenue | $718.6M (FMP) | $731.6 | +$13.0M / +1.8% | BEAT | | Adj. op. EBITDA margin | n/a | 72.2% | +640 bp YoY (PR) | — |

EPS beat/miss heatmap

Full L12Q adj. EPS scorecard

| Quarter | Adj. EPS actual | Consensus | Surprise % | Status | |---|---:|---:|---:|---| | 2023Q3 | $2.06 | 1.90 | +8.4% | BEAT | | 2023Q4 | $2.06 | 2.07 | −0.5% | MISS | | 2024Q1 | $2.15 | 2.08 | +3.4% | BEAT | | 2024Q2 | $2.15 | 2.15 | 0.0% | INLINE | | 2024Q3 | $2.22 | 2.24 | −0.9% | MISS | | 2024Q4 | $2.10 | 2.13 | −1.4% | MISS | | 2025Q1 | $2.50 | 2.36 | +5.9% | BEAT | | 2025Q2 | $2.46 | 2.42 | +1.7% | BEAT | | 2025Q3 | $2.67 | 2.53 | +5.5% | BEAT | | 2025Q4 | $3.06 | 2.94 | +4.1% | BEAT | | 2026Q1 | $3.70 | 3.34 | +10.8% | BEAT | | 2026Q2 | $3.56 | 3.48 | +2.3% | BEAT |

| Window | EPS beats | Rate | Avg surprise | |---|---:|---:|---:| | L4Q (2025Q3–2026Q2) | 4 / 4 | 100% | +5.7% | | L12Q (2023Q3–2026Q2) | 8 / 12 | 67% | +3.3% | | Prior L4Q (2024Q3–2025Q2) | 2 / 4 | 50% | +1.3% |

Pattern: Consistent beater recently (6/6 EPS beats); Mixed over L12Q. Magnitude improved YoY (L4Q avg +5.7% vs prior +1.3%) but compressed this print after Q1 peak — street catch-up, not disappointment (guidance was raised).

Management variance narrative: Index options volume/RPC mix (Options ADV +26%, index ADV +32%, RPC +6%); broad NR growth; retail/PDT tailwind; opex discipline (adj. opex only +2% YoY).

CBOE does not issue quarterly EPS/revenue dollar guidance or formal margin guidance. Full-year 2026 guide = organic net-revenue growth (total + Data Vantage), adj. opex, D&A, tax, CapEx.

New 2026 guide (Q2 print)

| Metric | New guide (Q2) | vs prior (Q1) | Notes | |---|---|---|---| | Organic total NR growth | Mid to high teens | Raised from low DD–mid teens | No absolute $ NR guide | | Data Vantage organic NR | Low teens | Raised from low double-digit | — | | Adj. operating expenses | $838–$853M | Reaffirmed | Embeds ~$11M Australia reduction | | D&A (ex acquired intangibles) | $54–$58M | Lowered from $56–$60M | — | | Adj. tax rate | 27.5%–29.5% | Reaffirmed | — | | CapEx | $98–$108M | Raised from $73–$83M | Clearing infra / hardware | | Adj. diluted EPS | Not guided | — | Street 2026E $13.85 (FMP) |

Guidance evolution waterfall

Bridge table (company metrics)

| Metric | Prior mid | New low | New high | New mid | Consensus (FMP) | vs Prior | vs Cons. | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|---| | Organic total NR growth (%) | ~12.5 | ~15 | ~18 | ~16.5 | ~17.1 | +~4pp | ~inline | | Data Vantage organic NR (%) | ~11 | ~12 | ~14 | ~13 | n/a | +~2pp | n/a | | Adj. opex ($M) | 845.5 | 838 | 853 | 845.5 | n/a | 0 | n/a | | CapEx ($M) | 78 | 98 | 108 | 103 | n/a | +$25 | n/a | | D&A ex AI amort. ($M) | 58 | 54 | 58 | 56 | n/a | −$2 | n/a | | Adj. tax rate (%) | 28.5 | 27.5 | 29.5 | 28.5 | n/a | 0 | n/a | | Net revenue ($M, illust.) | ~2,733 | ~2,794 | ~2,866 | ~2,830 | 2,845 | +~$97 | ~inline | | Adj. diluted EPS ($) | Not guided | — | — | — | 13.85 | n/a | Street only |

Vs run-rate: H1 NR +26.7% YoY and Q2 +24.6% still above the new FY organic band → guide remains achievable with H2 deceleration, not stretched. FY2025 NR base $2,429.1M. Data Vantage H1 already runs above prior low-DD full-year organic.

FY+1 (FY2027) — street only

| Metric | Company guide | FMP consensus | |---|---|---| | Revenue | Not guided | $2.96B (~+4.1% vs 2026E) | | EPS | Not guided | $14.73 (~+6.4% vs 2026E) |

Street embeds a steep post-2026 growth step-down. If mid/high-teens organic and low-teens Data Vantage prove durable, 2027 street looks conservative — volume/vol mean-reversion remains the swing factor.

Tone: Q1 vs Q2

| Dimension | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Delta | |---|---|---|---| | Growth confidence | Raised total organic to low-DD–mid teens | Further raise mid–high teens | More bullish | | Expense posture | Large opex cut to $838–853 | Reaffirm; candid on incentive/RTO pressure | Stable guide | | CapEx | Held $73–83 | +$25M mid for clearing | Reinvest for growth platforms | | New products | Event markets small contribution historically | KPI explicitly $0 in 2026 guide | Confident roadmap, prudent P&L | | Net tone | Cost-structure / realignment call | Demand / reinvestment call | Constructive upgrade |

| Metric | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Q2'26 | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | Net revenue ($M) | 532.0 | 524.5 | 565.2 | 587.3 | 605.5 | 671.1 | 728.9 | 731.6 | | Revenue YoY % | +10.7% | +5.1% | +12.6% | +14.3% | +13.8% | +28.0% | +29.0% | +24.6% | | Rev accel (bps) | +72 | −561 | +746 | +174 | −49 | +1,413 | +101 | −439 | | Adj. diluted EPS ($) | 2.22 | 2.10 | 2.50 | 2.46 | 2.67 | 3.06 | 3.70 | 3.56 | | EPS YoY % | +7.8% | +1.9% | +16.3% | +14.4% | +20.3% | +45.7% | +48.0% | +44.7% | | EPS accel (bps) | −1,302 | −583 | +1,434 | −186 | +585 | +2,544 | +229 | −328 |

Inflection points

| # | Quarter | What changed | Signal | |---|---|---|---| | 1 | Q4'24 | Rev YoY trough +5.1% (−561 bps); adj. EPS trough +1.9% | Softest growth in 8Q window | | 2 | Q1'25 | Re-acceleration: Rev +746 bps, EPS +1,434 bps | Trajectory turns up | | 3 | Q4'25 | Step-change: Rev +28.0% (+1,413 bps); EPS +45.7% (+2,544 bps) | Primary inflection — index options volume + RPC mix | | 4 | Q1'26 | Peak rates: Rev +29.0%, adj. EPS +48.0% | Absolute growth crest | | 5 | Q2'26 | Mild fade: Rev +24.6% (−439 bps); EPS +44.7% (−328 bps) | Decel off peak, not collapse — record absolute NR |

Plain English: High-growth regime (mid-20s revenue / mid-40s adj. EPS YoY) built through 2025, crested in Q1'26, eased only slightly in Q2'26. Four-quarter stack Q3'25–Q2'26 still averages ~24% NR YoY — roughly double mid-2024/mid-2025 mid-teens. EPS growth has outrun revenue by ~15–20 pp for four straight quarters (higher-RPC index mix + opex discipline). Key risk to the rate is easier comps as 2025's strong base rolls into H2'26 — not franchise deterioration.

Q2 drivers (PR + call): Options NR +30%; total options ADV +26%, index +32%, multi-list +24%, RPC +6%; Data Vantage +15%; Cash & Spot +22%; adj. opex only +2% YoY; PDT repeal / SPX 0DTE / mini SPX as retail supports; perps framed complementary (>95% of 0DTE defined-risk).

| # | Catalyst | Timing | Street embed | Investment implication | |---|---|---|---|---| | 1 | Company KPI event contracts (SEC) | Target late Sep / early Oct 2026; 23 US cos, 100+ metrics | $0 in 2026 models (aligned with mgmt) | Highest near-term binary catalyst. Approval = narrative re-rate + multi-year TAM; delay does not hit 2026 P&L | | 2 | Cboe Australia close (TMX) | Expected Q3 2026 | ~$300M AU+CA proceeds already framed; −$11M opex | Hard Q3 catalyst; frees focus for derivatives/clearing/Predicts | | 3 | Raised mid-to-high-teens organic NR | Remainder of FY2026 | Pre-print models lagged; FMP 2026E ~$2.84B / EPS $13.85 | Primary estimate-revision catalyst; H1 already did heavy lifting | | 4 | Cboe Predicts / Mini-SPX binaries | Framework live; early innings | Not broken out | De-risked product path; securities wrapper + SPX ecosystem vs Kalshi | | 5 | Extended multi-list hours | Live Jul 13, 2026 | Modest incremental ADV | Incremental; first full-quarter read in Q3 | | 6 | Retail / PDT + SPX 0DTE durability | Ongoing structural | Elevated industry ADV assumed | Sustaining catalyst; watch monthly volumes | | 7 | Cboe Clear U.S. + CapEx step-up | Multi-year; CapEx $98–108M | Cash use, little fee credit yet | Medium-term strategic; 2026 P&L secondary | | 8 | Perps vs SPX narrative risk | Ongoing | Index options franchise still underwritten | Adverse if SPX 0DTE ADV decelerates sharply | | 9 | Q3 2026 earnings | ~2026-10-30 | First test of raised organic band | Scheduled high-sensitivity print | | 10 | $650M debt maturity / capital return | Q1 2027 | Dividend ongoing; buybacks conservative | Balance-sheet event, not growth thesis |

Highest-asymmetry watch into Q3/Q4: SEC disposition on KPI contracts; Australia close; sustainability of index options ADV after a record print; whether CapEx/CCUS spend shows clearing traction.

Consensus gap: Street was behind the organic raise; still prices prediction markets as 2027+ optionality. Grades Hold (FMP); KPI revenue 2026 aligned at ~$0.

10 analysts on the Q2 call (one question each). Product-heavy: event/KPI contracts + retail (7 of 10). 7 well answered / 3 deflected.

| # | Analyst | Topic | Verdict | |---|---|---|---| | 1 | Ben Budish (Barclays) | Perps vs options; retail sophistication mix | Well answered — >95% 0DTE defined-risk; 50–55% spreads; complementary | | 2 | Patrick Moley (Piper Sandler) | KPI demand / 2026 guide revenue | Well answered — Schwab anchor; $0 in 2026 guide; late Sep/early Oct target | | 3 | Brian Bedell (Deutsche Bank) | SEC timing / KPI pricing | Well answered — process smooth; timing not committed; pricing framework | | 4 | Jeff Schmitt (William Blair) | KPI adoption path | Well answered — inbound demand from RH/Schwab/Webull/tastytrade | | 5 | Michael Cyprys (Morgan Stanley) | Semi-annual reporting 2nd/3rd-order effects | Deflected — “hard to speculate”; soft issuer-survey color | | 6 | Ashish Sabadra (RBC) | Clearing products + inorganic M&A | Deflected (M&A half) — product use cases yes; M&A “not able to talk” | | 7 | Alex Blostein (Goldman Sachs) | Broker vertical integration / right to win | Well answered — open exchange + capital-efficiency moat | | 8 | Simon Clinch (Redburn) | Event contracts adjacent vs feeder | Well answered — both; KPI → EPS → sector → index toolkit | | 9 | Alex Kramm (UBS) | Global SPX/0DTE + PDT broker data | Well answered — densest data dump (RH +30% MoM options ADV) | | 10 | Dan Fannon (Jefferies) | Data Vantage 2026 mix + 2027 sustainability | Deflected (2027 half) — clean 2026 bridge; 2027 deferred to year-end |

Deflections that matter

| Ask | What mgmt did | Why it matters | |---|---|---| | Semi-annual reporting effects | High-level shrug | Policy tail-risk to earnings-day volume; no stress framework | | Clearing M&A | Explicit non-answer | CapEx already raised; inorganic spend un-anchored | | Data Vantage 2027 | Deferred to year-end guide | Only recurring-revenue durability question — left open |

Dogs that didn't bark: No questions on U.S. equities on-exchange share decline (9.4% vs 10.5% YoY), Futures near-flat NR, Europe share ease, buyback pace vs $650M maturity, or margin sustainability if volumes normalize. Street is underwriting derivatives + retail + event contracts.

Mgmt quality signal: Quantified where possible; honest $0 KPI in guide; regulatory humility on SEC timing; no defensive posture on the quarter.

Six contradictions found (1 High, 3 Medium, 2 Low). Ranked most severe first.

Not counted: Event-contract “small contribution” (Q4) vs “no KPI revenue” (Q2) — different product scopes (launched Predicts vs unapproved company KPI contracts). Pure guide raises without colliding language are normal evolution.

Headline: Q2 narrative centers on structural retail engagement (PDT rule repeal), elevated options/vol demand, and a prediction-markets / KPI land grab — not classic rates/inflation forecasts. Open-exchange clearing framed as superior to closed broker/prediction silos.

Macro-adjacent

| Theme | What management said | Read-through | |---|---|---| | Rates / Fed path | No explicit Fed-funds forecast | Neutral — P&L is vol/volume-levered, not NII | | CPI event contracts | Roadmap: CPI → stock → sector → index toolkit | Bullish product adjacency to inflation uncertainty | | Geopolitics (Q1 Iran war) | Non-0DTE jumped +26% as inflation/growth risk rose | Risk-off favors longer-dated index options + VIX alongside 0DTE | | PDT repeal | Top-9 brokers: SPX ADV ~+3.5% MoM; XSP >+36%; simple-order SPX >+40% | Strong retail risk-appetite signal; smaller tickets broadened engagement | | 0DTE structure | >95% defined-risk; 50–55% spreads | Softens “reckless gambling” bear case; supports RPC durability |

Named counterparties

| Company / entity | Relationship | Read-through | |---|---|---| | Robinhood (HOOD) | Distribution | June options ADV +30% MoM / ~+80% YoY (public data cited) — joint positive; HOOD options KPI is a leading indicator for CBOE retail volumes | | Webull | Distribution | Options ADV +36% MoM / ~+100% YoY post-PDT — same low-cost retail cohort | | Charles Schwab (SCHW) | Anchor tenant for event contracts | Credibility seal for Predicts / XSP binaries mass-market path | | tastytrade | Distribution | Named in retail platform set for event SKUs | | NVIDIA (NVDA) / Microsoft (MSFT) | Proposed KPI underlyings | Positive for CBOE product surface (granular AI-demand proxies); not a view on fundamentals | | S&P Dow Jones Indices (SPGI) | Critical licensor (SPX) | Royalty stream benefits from record SPX ADV; existential dependency if terms reprice | | OCC | Clearing partner | CCUS “complementary, not a departure” — speed on KPIs / 23×5 / tokenization | | CME | Competitor adjacency | Perps complementary to SPX (S&P futures coexisted for decades); CBOE may expand continuous futures | | Kalshi / closed prediction silos | Competitive model | CBOE differentiator = securities-regulated, broker-intermediated, capital-efficient offsets |

Cross-theme map (Q2 focus)

| Theme | Names | Direction | |---|---|---| | Retail options boom post-PDT | HOOD, Webull, Schwab, tastytrade | Positive for low-cost brokers' options revenue and CBOE volumes (esp. XSP/multi-list) | | Event / KPI contracts | Schwab anchor; NVDA/MSFT underlyings; Kalshi-style competitors | Positive CBOE optionality; competitive pressure on pure prediction venues | | Perps threat | CME history; crypto continuous futures | Management: complementary, not substitute | | Index franchise | SPGI, CNBC | Strengthens SPX brand flywheel; partner concentration risk unchanged |

Risk flag: Results remain dependent on retail engagement and market volatility — a calm, low-vol tape with retail fatigue would compress the multiple more than a pure rates cut.

Soft double beat + second organic raise leaves CBOE in a high-growth regime with mild deceleration off the peak. Index options leverage and expanding adj. op. EBITDA margin (72.2%) keep the multi-year trajectory elevated; guide mid now ≈ street while H1 still runs ahead. Near-term stock narrative hinges on KPI SEC path (zero in 2026 P&L but high optionality), Australia close, and proof that mid-to-high-teens organic holds into H2 — not on whether this quarter beat by 2 points.