BLK | Earnings Review — Q2 2026

BlackRock's Q2'26 print is the cleanest acceleration quarter in this eight-quarter dataset. Total revenue reached $7,084 million, up +30.6% YoY — the fastest growth of the trailing eight quarters — and beat consensus of $6,727.4M by +5.3%, the largest revenue beat in the twelve-quarter lookback. Adjusted diluted EPS of $13.91 grew +15.4% YoY, beat consensus of $12.69 by +9.6%, and marks BLK's 12th consecutive quarterly EPS beat (100% hit rate, L12Q and L4Q). Adjusted operating margin hit 45.9% (+260bps YoY) — a near-5-year high — and quarterly net inflows nearly tripled YoY to $192B (from $68B in Q2'25). Management-cited AUM reached a record ~$15.3T (+22.1% YoY; not yet a discrete Daloopa fundamental for this quarter, sourced from the call).

Guidance: BlackRock issues no revenue/EPS guide (typical for an asset manager); the guided framework — adjusted operating margin ≥45% ("not a ceiling"), ~25% tax rate, low-to-mid-teens technology ACV growth — was reiterated unchanged. The one number that moved was capital return: the share-repurchase pace was raised from ≥$450mm to ≥$550mm per quarter (+22%), alongside a new full-year capital-return disclosure of >$5.7B (+16% YoY). Every qualitative target held; nothing was walked back.

Tone: materially more confident than the Q1'26 call — macro/geopolitical caveats that consumed real airtime in April were essentially absent in July, private-credit commentary flipped from defensive to affirmative ("performing ahead of the plan"), and the buyback raise was explicitly tied to rising conviction, not just a backward-looking reaffirmation.

Contradictions (2 found, both flagged below): (1) an internal data-hygiene issue — this repo's prior-quarter (Q1'26) structured output cited adjusted EPS of $14.06, which does not reconcile to management's own stated $12.53 for that quarter; corrected in this review using fresh Daloopa pulls. (2) A minor commentary inconsistency — Fink's Q2'26 reference to "$800 billion of insurance assets" discussed at HPS/GIP announcement time versus the $700 billion BlackRock actually stated on the two nearest calls (Q1'25, Q4'25).

Catalysts to watch into Q3'26 (reports ~2026-10-13): the Aligned Data Centers close (2026-07-21, six days after this print — the highest-conviction near-term item) and the DOL "Safe Harbor" 401(k) rule (the highest-conviction structural, multi-year item — a management-bullish/Street-underappreciated setup). The key risk/watch items are ETF distribution "platform tolls" (Merrill/Schwab fee hikes, which management denies apply to BLK) and IBIT's first-ever negative-YTD spot-Bitcoin-ETF flow stretch.

| Metric | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Q2'26 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Total revenue ($M) | 5,197 | 5,677 | 5,276 | 5,423 | 6,509 | 7,008 | 6,698 | 7,084 | | Revenue YoY % | +14.9% | +22.6% | +11.6% | +12.9% | +25.2% | +23.4% | +27.0% | +30.6% | | Adjusted operating margin | 45.8% | 45.5% | 43.2% | 43.3% | 44.6% | 45.0% | 44.5% | 45.9% | | Margin YoY (bps) | — | — | — | −80 | −120 | −50 | +130 | +260 | | Adjusted diluted EPS | $11.46 | $11.93 | $11.30 | $12.05 | $11.55 | $13.16 | $12.53 | $13.91 | | Adj. EPS YoY % | +5.0% | +23.5% | +15.2% | +16.3% | +0.8% | +10.3% | +10.9% | +15.4% | | GAAP diluted EPS (ref.) | $10.90 | $10.63 | $9.64 | $10.19 | $8.43 | $7.16 | $14.06 | $12.19 | | AUM, end of period ($T) | 11.48 | 11.55 | 11.58 | 12.53 | 13.46 | 14.04 | 13.89 | ~15.30¹ | | Total net inflows, qtr ($B)¹ | 221 | 281 | 84 | 68 | 205 | 342 | 130 | 192 |

¹ Q2'26 AUM (~$15.3T) and all quarterly net-inflow figures are management-stated on earnings calls, not yet extracted as discrete Daloopa fundamental lines for every period — sourced from transcripts and cross-checked quarter to quarter (see task_1_key_metrics_trends.md for the full citation trail). GAAP and adjusted EPS diverge materially each quarter because of HPS/GIP/Preqin deal items (intangible amortization, acquisition comp, contingent-consideration marks) excluded from BLK's adjusted measure, which is management's own primary metric.

Verdict — accelerating. Revenue YoY growth just hit its fastest pace of the trailing 8 quarters, margin expanded to a near-5-year high, net inflows nearly tripled YoY, and adjusted EPS growth reaccelerated to +15.4% after stalling near-flat in Q3'25 — the mid-2025 deceleration has fully reversed into broad-based acceleration across revenue, flows, margin, and earnings simultaneously.

| Quarter | Adj. EPS Actual | Adj. EPS Cons. | EPS Beat/Miss | Revenue Actual | Revenue Cons. | Rev Beat/Miss | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | FY2024Q3 | $11.46 | $10.33 | 🟢 +10.94% | $5,197M | $5,035.0M | 🟢 +3.22% | | FY2024Q4 | $11.93 | $11.27 | 🟢 +5.86% | $5,677M | $5,567.5M | 🟢 +1.97% | | FY2025Q1 | $11.30 | $10.08 | 🟢 +12.10% | $5,276M | $5,290.5M | 🔴 −0.27% | | FY2025Q2 | $12.05 | $10.78 | 🟢 +11.78% | $5,423M | $5,450.1M | 🔴 −0.50% | | FY2025Q3 | $11.55 | $11.36 | 🟢 +1.67% | $6,509M | $6,330.6M | 🟢 +2.82% | | FY2025Q4 | $13.16 | $12.24 | 🟢 +7.52% | $7,008M | $6,760.4M | 🟢 +3.66% | | FY2026Q1 | $12.53 | $11.65 | 🟢 +7.55% | $6,698M | $6,550.6M | 🟢 +2.25% | | ▶ FY2026Q2 (THIS QTR) | $13.91 | $12.69 | 🟢 +9.61% | $7,084M | $6,727.4M | 🟢 +5.30% |

| Window | Adj. EPS beat rate | Adj. EPS avg. surprise | Revenue beat rate | Revenue avg. surprise | |---|---|---|---|---| | L12Q (FY2023Q3–FY2026Q2) | 12/12 = 100% | +8.0% | 8/12 = 66.7% | +1.75% | | L4Q (FY2025Q3–FY2026Q2) | 4/4 = 100% | +6.6% | 4/4 = 100% | +3.51% |

BlackRock has not missed adjusted EPS consensus in any of the last 12 reported quarters, and this quarter's EPS beat is the largest of the last four. Revenue has flipped from a mixed historical pattern (4 misses in the last 12 quarters, mostly when AUM/market levels ran below Street models) to four straight beats with improving magnitude (+2.82% → +3.66% → +2.25% → +5.30%) — this quarter is the largest revenue beat in the full 12-quarter window, likely reflecting the HPS/GIP/Preqin deal closings layering a discrete revenue step-up on top of organic growth.

Scope note: BlackRock does not guide consolidated revenue or diluted EPS — flows drive an asset manager's revenue and are not guidable. Its guidance instead takes the form of a long-term margin target, a tax-rate run-rate, a buyback pace, and a G&A growth rate.

Guided KPIs — prior vs. new vs. reported

| Guided KPI | Prior guide (Q1'26 call) | New guide (Q2'26 call) | Change | Q2'26 reported | |---|---|---|---|---| | Adj. operating margin | ≥45% | ≥45% (reiterated; "not a ceiling") | Unchanged target, more confident framing | 45.9% — highest in ~5 years | | As-adjusted tax rate | ~25% for remainder of FY2026 | ~25% for remainder of FY2026 | Unchanged | 25.2% | | Share repurchase pace | ≥$450mm/qtr | ≥$550mm/qtr "going forward" | Raised +$100mm/qtr (+22%) | $450mm executed in Q2 (pre-raise) | | FY2026 total shareholder return | Not separately quantified | >$5.7B (+16% YoY vs. FY2025's ~$5.0B) | New explicit full-year disclosure | n/a — full-year figure | | FY2026 G&A growth (ex-annualization) | Mid-single-digit % | Mid-single-digit % (reiterated) | Unchanged | +17% YoY as-reported (HPS-driven, unadjusted) | | Technology ACV growth (long-term) | Low-to-mid-teens | Low-to-mid-teens (reiterated) | Unchanged | +15% YoY (vs. +14% Q1'26) |

Share-buyback pace — the one guide that moved

| Step | Value ($mm/qtr) | |---|---| | Jan-2026 guide (FY2025Q4 call) | 450 | | Reaffirmed, Apr-2026 (FY2026Q1 call) | 450 | | Q1'26 actual executed | 450 | | Q2'26 actual executed | 450 | | New guide, Jul-2026 (FY2026Q2 call) | 550 (+22%) |

FQ+1 (Q3 2026) and FY+1 (FY2027) — consensus context

| Metric | Prior guide | New guide | Consensus | vs Consensus | |---|---|---|---|---| | Q3'26 revenue | N/A — no company guide | N/A | $7,408M (FMP, 4 analysts) | Implies +13.8% YoY vs. Q3'25 actual $6,509M | | Q3'26 adj. EPS | N/A | N/A | $14.22 (FMP, 9 analysts; range $13.61–$14.93) | Implies +23.1% YoY vs. Q3'25 actual $11.55 | | FY2027E revenue | N/A | N/A | $32.29B | +11.8% YoY vs. FY2026E consensus $28.88B | | FY2027E adj. EPS | N/A | N/A | $64.27 | +14.3% YoY vs. FY2026E consensus $56.23 |

Management tone — Q1'26 call vs. Q2'26 call

| Dimension | Q1'26 (Apr-2026) | Q2'26 (Jul-2026) | Shift | |---|---|---|---| | Opening framing | "One of the strongest starts to a year" | "Strongest first half on record"; "never been more optimistic" | Escalated | | Margin confidence | "Not a ceiling," anchored to 44.5% | Same phrase, now anchored to an actual 45.9% print | More confident, higher base | | Macro caveats | Extensive — Middle East risk, March drawdown comparisons | Materially lighter — no macro-volatility caveat in prepared remarks | Caveats stripped out | | Distribution/platform-fee risk | Not raised | Raised by an analyst; management denied exposure | New watch-item, worth tracking | | Private credit / HPS tone | Defensive — rebutting headlines | Confident-affirmative — "performing ahead of the plan" | Flipped from defense to declaration | | Buyback commentary | Backward-looking reaffirmation | Forward-looking raise, tied to conviction | Capital-allocation action, not just words |

Read-through: every qualitative target was reiterated unchanged — no goalpost-moving — and the one number that changed (buybacks) moved up. Combined with the new capital-return disclosure and a materially more confident tone (fewer risk caveats, private-credit defense flipped to offense), this is a guide raise, not a reset.

| Metric | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Q2'26 | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Revenue YoY % | 14.9% | 22.6% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 25.2% | 23.4% | 27.0% | 30.6% | | Rev accel (bps QoQ) | +726 | +766 | −1,100 | +127 | +1,238 | −180 | +351 | +368 | | Adj. EPS YoY % | 5.0% | 23.5% | 15.2% | 16.3% | 0.8% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 15.4% | | EPS accel (bps QoQ) | −660 | +1,846 | −831 | +112 | −1,553 | +953 | +58 | +455 |

Three inflection points:

1. Q1'25 — revenue deceleration trough (−1,100 bps QoQ, to 11.6% YoY). Growth cooled from Q4'24's market-beta pop back toward the underlying organic run-rate, pre-HPS.
2. Q3'25 — the HPS/GIP/Preqin acquisition inflection. HPS closed July 1, 2025. Revenue re-accelerated hard (+1,238 bps QoQ, to 25.2% YoY) as acquired revenue layered in — but EPS growth collapsed to a 0.8% YoY trough (−1,553 bps QoQ) the same quarter, because the deal added share count and acquisition-related costs before operating leverage showed up. This is the clearest case of revenue and EPS diverging for a mechanical (M&A financing), not operating, reason.
3. Q1'26–Q2'26 — EPS re-acceleration as dilution laps and margin hits a cycle high. EPS accel flips positive again (+58bps, then +455bps) as the post-HPS share count anniversarizes and margin climbs to 45.9% — the highest in ~5 years. Revenue keeps accelerating simultaneously (+368bps QoQ, to 30.6% YoY), so by Q2'26 both lines point the same direction again.

Plain-English assessment: BlackRock's 8-quarter arc is two engines running at different speeds converging. Revenue has been on a near-uninterrupted acceleration path since Q1'25 (11.6% → 30.6% YoY), first from market beta and organic base-fee growth, then supercharged from Q3'25 by the HPS/GIP/Preqin acquisitions. EPS growth, by contrast, cratered to essentially flat in Q3'25 exactly when revenue jumped, because the HPS deal's new shares and integration costs temporarily diluted per-share economics. The last two quarters show that dilution effect fading and operating leverage taking over — this is a normalizing, not deteriorating trajectory, with both lines now pointed up together and revenue at a cycle-high growth rate.

| # | Catalyst | Timing | Read-through | |---|---|---|---| | 1 | DOL "Safe Harbor" rule (private assets in 401(k) menus) | Proposed 2026-03-30; comment period closed 2026-06-01; final rule possibly by year-end 2026 | Highest-conviction structural catalyst — management already cites it by name as a Preqin/eFront/Aladdin demand accelerant, ahead of any final rule; Street hasn't fully modeled it (sentiment-inversion setup) | | 2 | Tokenized money-market fund launches (Ethereum-based) | SEC filings ~2026-05-08; not yet effective | Strategically important, immaterial to near-term EPS; proof point toward the $500M 2030 digital-assets revenue target | | 3 | AES Corp take-private (GIP + EQT) | Agreed ~2026-03; close late 2026/early 2027 | Adds to GIP/HPS integration momentum and the $400B 2025–2030 fundraising target; not yet AUM-accretive | | 4 | Aligned Data Centers close (AIP/GIP/MGX, ~$40B EV) | Closed 2026-07-21 — 6 days after this print | Highest-conviction near-term (Q3-visible) catalyst; watch Q3 call for GIP deployment/fundraising commentary | | 5 | "Trump Accounts" federal child-savings program | Launched 2026-07-04; iShares ETFs "later this year" | Slow-burn, multi-year retail-distribution catalyst; not yet priced into any Street model | | 6 | ETF distribution "platform tolls" (Merrill/Schwab fee hikes) | Merrill fee hike reported the week of the print; Schwab/Fidelity year-end 2026 rollout | Highest-conviction risk item — management denies exposure ("not approached," "no active negotiations"), but the Street is pricing this as a sector risk; revisit at Q3'26 | | 7 | Fed rate path (Sept 2026 FOMC) | Next major decision point Sept 2026 | Forecasters split (~20–24% odds of a 2026 cut per prediction markets); cash management book already reshaping ($7B Q2 outflow from govt money funds) | | 8 | IBIT flow reversal | Ongoing; record May/June 2026 outflow streaks | 2026 YTD spot Bitcoin ETF flows turned negative for the first time since Jan-2024 launch — a genuine, alt-data-confirmed air pocket not yet reflected in bullish management framing | | 9 | Private credit / non-traded BDC credit-quality scrutiny | Ongoing since late-2025 idiosyncratic events | Management: "stabilization... not seeing any real change in credit quality"; fundraising accelerating ($22B closed/notified) |

8 analyst questions taken live on the FY2026Q2 call; 6 well answered, 2 deflected/avoided.

| # | Analyst | Topic | Verdict | |---|---|---|---| | 1 | Craig Siegenthaler (BofA) | Aperio / tax-aware SMA & long-short | 🟢 Well answered — specific inflows, AUM, growth multiple given | | 2 | Michael Cyprys (Morgan Stanley) | Tokenization roadmap / milestones | 🟢 Well answered — concrete SEC filings cited as near-term milestones | | 3 | Alex Blostein (Goldman Sachs) | GIP/HPS integration & insurance-channel conversion | 🟢 Well answered — quantified conversion opportunity and progress | | 4 | Mike Brown (UBS) | Margin sustainability & structural drivers | 🟢 Well answered — number-anchored (47% in 2021) forward view | | 5 | Patrick Davitt (Autonomous) | Distribution "toll" risk (Merrill/Schwab) | 🔴 Deflected/Avoided — answered only BLK's own position, not the broader industry-trend risk asked | | 6 | Ben Budish (Barclays) | Private markets flow composition | 🟢 Well answered — fully itemized $15B by sub-category | | 7 | Brian Bedell (Deutsche Bank) | Europe iShares traction & tokenized U.S. equities | 🔴 Deflected/Avoided — never addressed the tokenized-U.S.-equity sub-question | | 8 | Alex Bond (KBW) | Aladdin/Preqin synergies, transparency demand, AI impact | 🟢 Well answered (partial gap on AI specifics — generic language, no metric) |

Deflected questions in detail:

• Davitt (Autonomous) asked whether distribution-fee "tolls" become a broader industry trend and could pressure BLK's net revenue. Martin Small confirmed BlackRock's own current negotiating position is untouched ("not approached," "no active talks") but did not assess the industry-wide risk or quantify potential exposure if the practice spreads.
• Bedell (Deutsche Bank) asked a two-part question on European retail democratization and tokenization of U.S. equities available in Europe but not domestically. Fink answered the European-flows half at length but never addressed the tokenization sub-question.

Two of eight questions (25%) had a material gap between what was asked and answered — both on topics where BlackRock has less to disclose (a competitively sensitive fee dynamic, and a product not yet in market), not areas of weak performance.

Macro commentary:

• Equity markets: "U.S. equity markets continue to climb to new highs... returns are broadening beyond the U.S." (Fink) — constructive on broad market health and corporate margins.
• Dollar / rates: global investors' dollar-asset allocation is "back to their fullest level" after a modest 2025 reduction, tied to U.S. tech strength and Fed rate-path expectations.
• Home-country bias (Europe): "a real nationalization going on... more and more people believe they need to be investing in their country or at least in Europe" — a structural shift favoring locally-domiciled products.
• Private credit / insurance demand: spreads have widened, institutional demand is "enthusiastic"; prior-quarter idiosyncratic credit stress "has stabilized... not seeing any real change in credit quality."
• Hyperscaler capex: hyperscalers "went from balance sheet-light... to major balance sheet needs" building data centers — supportive of the AI-capex-supercycle thesis and a tailwind for infrastructure/private-credit financiers.
• Crypto volatility: Bitcoin and Ethereum declined ~30% intra-quarter, yet European Bitcoin ETP inflows stayed strong (~$650mm+) — a price-down/flows-up sentiment divergence.

Company mentions:

| Company | Relationship | Read-through | |---|---|---| | Merrill Lynch (BofA) | Distribution partner | Reported fee hike this week — potential margin headwind for smaller ETF issuers; BLK says it hasn't been approached | | Charles Schwab | Distribution partner | Raising platform fees on ETFs — same industry-wide toll-risk theme | | Securitize | Portfolio holding | BLK holds 7.3M shares post-IPO; non-operating income mark-to-market item to watch | | Circle | Stablecoin reserve customer | BLK manages $60B of reserves, ~25% of the $300B stablecoin market — positive for both | | MGX | Co-investor, Aligned Data Centers | Confirms sovereign-style capital chasing AI/data-center infrastructure at scale | | AES Corporation | GIP take-private target | Continued consolidation appetite for power-generation assets tied to data-center demand | | TCR | GIP acquisition (ground-leasing, Europe) | Signals continued European infrastructure/real-asset consolidation | | Summit Ridge Partners | Mid-market acquisition (community solar) | Incremental positive for distributed-generation financing activity | | U.S. Treasury | Trump Accounts distribution channel | New government-sponsored retail savings distribution channel for iShares | | Department of Labor | Regulator, 401(k) rulemaking | Positive read-through for private-markets managers broadly if the Safe Harbor rule opens DC-plan access |

Data sourced from Daloopa (company_id 297), BlackRock's FY2026Q2 earnings call transcript, and FMP /stable/analyst-estimates for consensus.