< All Tickers
BALL
Ball Corporation
Earnings
BALL | Earnings Review
Ball Corporation | 2026 Q1 reported May 5, 2026 BMO | Analysis date: May 5, 2026 | Daloopa company_id 289
Revenue Beat
+5.0%
$3.60B vs $3.43B Street; +16% YoY (largest in series); 4-of-4 L4Q rev beats post-Aerospace divestiture
Comparable EPS
$0.94 (+9.3% beat)
vs $0.86 Street (+$0.08); +24% YoY (largest Q1 jump in series); 8 of 9 quarters beats / 1 in-line / 0 misses; GAAP $0.77
EMEA Acceleration
+23% rev / +40% OpE YoY
EMEA strongest accelerator; FY25 OpE +19%; FY25 volumes +5.5%; lowest profit-per-can = most margin runway
FY26 Guide
REAFFIRMED 10%+ EPS growth
FCF >$900M; $800M total capital return ($600M buyback); 2.7x net leverage; only delta vs Feb: +$15M FX corp cost
Clean double-beat with reaffirmed FY26 algorithm; quality-of-growth bifurcation worth watching. Revenue $3.60B beat $3.43B Street by +5.0% (+16% YoY — largest YoY % in 9-quarter series); Comparable EPS $0.94 beat $0.86 by +$0.08 / +9.3% (+24% YoY — largest Q1 jump in series); GAAP EPS $0.77; net earnings $205M (+15% YoY). 9-quarter pattern: 8 beats, 1 in-line, 0 misses on EPS; 4-of-4 L4Q revenue beats post-Aerospace divestiture. Driver: cost discipline + 2x+ operating leverage, not volume — global volumes only +1% in Q1 with 10% operating-earnings growth. Segment scorecard: EMEA strongest accelerator (+23% sales, +40% OpE YoY; FY25 +19%); NCA hit a quarterly high (+21% sales YoY) capacity-constrained; SA weakest (-3% OpE YoY, soft spot, but April'26 +20% YoY rebound erased Q1 declines). Guidance: REAFFIRMED FY26 algorithm: 10%+ comparable diluted EPS growth, FCF >$900M, $800M total capital return ($600M+ buyback), 2.7x net leverage. Only modeling delta vs Feb: corporate undistributed costs $160M → $175M (FX). Q1'26 +22% EPS, +10% OpE on +1% volume suggests the 10% floor is conservative vs ~$4.05 consensus. Quality-of-growth caveat (Task 4): Volume contribution to sales collapsed from $227M tailwind in Q4'25 to just $33M in Q1'26 (~85% drop) — most of Q1 revenue growth is now price/mix and aluminum pass-through, not units. NCA volume contribution halved (+$76M → +$42M); EMEA dropped (+$48M → +$32M). 2H'26 revenue line at risk if volumes don't reaccelerate; April +MSD enterprise-wide volumes are reassuring. Strategic backdrop: NA capacity-constrained until Millersburg ramps in 2027 ($35M H2-loaded startup costs already in guide); 2027 >90% contracted, balance-of-decade >50%; potential second NC East Coast plant tied to one strategic customer LTA = embedded option; Benepack acquisition (€184M, 80% stake, BE+HU) closed Feb'26 — flat 2026, ramping 2027; UAC Saudi Arabia divested. BBS $500M cost-out program ~75% delivered, completes by YE26 (1 year early). Section 232 April-2026 restructure ruled net-neutral-to-slight-positive (filled cans NOT added to derivatives list). Watch items: (1) volume re-acceleration into Q2 (April already +MSD enterprise-wide, SA +20%); (2) EMEA margin runway (lowest profit-per-can; "most explicit margin runway" per CFO Rabbitt — note Fisher Q2'25 said "wouldn't expect EMEA margins to improve" = mid-severity contradiction post CEO transition); (3) Millersburg + East Coast NC plant capacity unlock for 2027; (4) capital return cadence ($800M FY26 vs $1.54B FY25 — deleveraging year); (5) aluminum can substrate share (BALL: "the can is winning in every region" — 2025 US cans +2% while all other substrates declined >2%). Read: high-quality earnings franchise compounding into 2027 capacity story; near-term beat-and-raise dynamics in place; key risk is volume air-pocket in 2H if April momentum fades. Stock unchanged premarket despite beat reflects post-runup positioning, not fundamentals.
Key Metrics Trends
| Metric | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bev NCA net sales | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.5B | $1.3B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.8B |
| Bev NCA net sales YoY % | - | - | - | - | +4.3% | +9.8% | +12.5% | +21.8% | +21.4% |
| Bev EMEA net sales | $810M | $880M | $950M | $826M | $903M | $1.1B | $1.1B | $971M | $1.1B |
| Bev EMEA net sales YoY % | - | - | - | - | +11.5% | +19.3% | +11.5% | +17.6% | +23.0% |
| Bev SA net sales | $482M | $422M | $484M | $563M | $544M | $477M | $508M | $633M | $585M |
| Bev SA net sales YoY % | - | - | - | - | +12.9% | +13.0% | +5.0% | +12.4% | +7.5% |
| Total net sales | $2.9B | $3.0B | $3.1B | $2.9B | $3.1B | $3.3B | $3.4B | $3.3B | $3.6B |
| Total net sales YoY % | - | - | - | - | +7.8% | +12.8% | +9.6% | +16.2% | +16.3% |
| Bev NCA Comp Op Earnings | $192M | $210M | $203M | $142M | $195M | $208M | $210M | $159M | $205M |
| Bev NCA Comp Op Earnings YoY % | - | - | - | - | +1.6% | -1.0% | +3.4% | +12.0% | +5.1% |
| Bev EMEA Comp Op Earnings | $85M | $113M | $128M | $90M | $96M | $129M | $147M | $123M | $134M |
| Bev EMEA Comp Op Earnings YoY % | - | - | - | - | +12.9% | +14.2% | +14.8% | +36.7% | +39.6% |
| Bev SA Comp Op Earnings | $55M | $37M | $78M | $126M | $69M | $51M | $80M | $127M | $67M |
| Bev SA Comp Op Earnings YoY % | - | - | - | - | +25.5% | +37.8% | +2.6% | +0.8% | -2.9% |
| Comparable Diluted EPS | $0.68 | $0.74 | $0.91 | $0.84 | $0.76 | $0.90 | $1.02 | $0.91 | $0.94 |
| Comparable Diluted EPS YoY % | - | - | - | - | +11.8% | +21.6% | +12.1% | +8.3% | +23.7% |
| GAAP Diluted EPS (Q1'24 incl Aero gain) | $11.61 | $0.51 | $0.65 | $-0.11 | $0.63 | $0.76 | $1.18 | $0.75 | $0.77 |
| GAAP Diluted EPS (Q1'24 incl Aero gain) YoY % | - | - | - | - | -94.6% | +49.0% | +81.5% | -781.8% | +22.2% |
_Trajectory: ACCELERATING across all 3 reportable segments — but quality-of-growth bifurcating. Total revenue: post-Aerospace trough $11,795M (FY24) rebounded to $13,161M (FY25); Q1'26 $3,603M is +25.4% vs Q1'24 / +16.3% vs Q1'25 — clear sequential acceleration. Bev NCA: Q1'26 net sales $1,776M the highest quarterly print in the series; OpE $205M; volume growth turned firmly positive (FY25 +4.8% after FY23 -6.9%). Bev EMEA: strongest accelerator — sales $1,111M Q1'26 vs $903M Q1'25 (+23%); FY25 OpE $495M up 19% over FY24; FY25 volumes +5.5%. Bev SA: rebounded — FY25 sales $2,162M +11% over FY24; Q1'26 sales +7.5% YoY but OpE $67M decelerated vs $69M Q1'25 (lone soft spot). Comparable EPS: stair-step higher — $2.90 (FY23) → $3.17 (FY24) → $3.57 (FY25); Q1'26 $0.94 vs $0.76 Q1'25 = +24% YoY, largest Q1 YoY jump in series. QUALITY CAVEAT: consolidated volume contribution to sales collapsed from $227M tailwind in Q4'25 to just $33M in Q1'26 (~85% drop) — most Q1'26 revenue growth is price/mix + aluminum pass-through, not units. NCA volume contribution halved; EMEA dropped. April +MSD enterprise-wide volumes + SA +20% rebound resolves the Q1 inventory air-pocket. Verdict: post-Aerospace lean franchise compounding double-digit EPS into the 2027 NA capacity unlock._
Beat/Miss
Guidance
Catalysts
Street Q&A
Contradictions
Read-Throughs
This Quarter vs Consensus
| Metric | Consensus | Actual | Variance | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.43B | $3.60B | +$170M / +5.0% | Beat — largest in 9Q |
| Reported Revenue YoY | — | +16.3% | — | Largest in series |
| Comparable EPS | $0.86 | $0.94 | +$0.08 / +9.3% | Beat — largest in 7Q |
| GAAP Diluted EPS | — | $0.77 | +22% YoY | Clean post-Aerospace |
| Bev EMEA OpE | — | $134M | +40% YoY | Strongest segment |
| Bev NCA OpE | — | $205M | +5% YoY | Capacity-constrained |
| Bev SA OpE | — | $67M | -3% YoY | Soft spot — April rebound |
| Global volume | +2-3% | +1% | Light | Quality of growth question |
| April'26 enterprise volumes | — | +MSD% | Strong | Reassuring on Q2 |
| April'26 SA volumes | Recovery | +20% YoY | Big rebound | Q1 deficit erased |
| L4Q EPS beat rate | — | 3 beats + 1 in-line = 100% no-miss | — | Consistent |
| L8Q EPS beat rate | — | 7 beats + 1 in-line = 100% no-miss | — | Consistent |
| 9-Q (incl Q1'24) record | — | 8 beats + 1 in-line + 0 misses | — | Never missed |
Pattern: Persistent never-miss EPS franchise; revenue beats accelerated post-Aerospace divestiture. 9-quarter window: 8 EPS beats, 1 in-line, ZERO misses. Revenue: 4-of-4 L4Q beats averaging ~+5% (clean from Q1'25 post-Aerospace divestiture). Q1'26 EPS beat of +9.3% / +$0.08 is the largest in 7 quarters. Beat driven by cost discipline / profit-per-can, NOT volume — only +1% global volume with 10% OpE growth and 2x+ operating leverage. SA was the soft spot (mid-single-digit decline) but April'26 +20% YoY erased Q1 declines. Segment reporting change this quarter (India/Myanmar moved to EMEA; UAC Saudi divestiture rolled in retroactively) likely contributed to Street under-modeling. Aerospace divestiture lap fully clean (Q1'24 GAAP EPS $11.61 included divestiture gain — disregard for run-rate). Mgmt's variance commentary: "Operational execution, cost discipline, and capital allocation" — formulaic energy/freight pass-through; immediate aluminum pass-through; Section 232 net-neutral; capital return contributing to per-share leverage.
Guidance Deep Dive
| Metric | Prior (Feb'26 / Q4'25) | New (May'26) | Δ | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY26 Comparable EPS Growth | 10%+ | 10%+ REAFFIRMED | Maintained | Conservative vs $4.05 consensus |
| FY26 FCF | >$900M | >$900M | Maintained | — |
| FY26 Total Capital Return | $800M | $800M | Maintained | Step down from $1.54B FY25 (deleveraging year) |
| FY26 Buyback | $600M+ | $600M+ | Maintained | — |
| FY26 Net Leverage | 2.7x | 2.7x | Maintained | Gliding to 2.5x |
| FY26 Corporate Undistributed Costs | $160M | $175M (+$15M FX) | +$15M | Only modeling delta vs Feb |
| Millersburg + ends-domestication startup | — | $35M H2-weighted (mostly Q3) | In guide | Transitory drag |
| NA Volume FY26 | 1-3% | Bottom end of 1-3% (capacity-constrained) | Capped | 2027 is the NA story |
| EMEA Volume FY26 | 3-5% | Above 3-5% range (2x leverage) | Above range | Strongest accelerator |
| SA Volume FY26 LT range | 4-6% | 4-6% (April +20% erases Q1 deficit) | On track | Confirmed |
| Section 232 (aluminum tariffs) | Pass-through risk | Net-neutral to slight positive (April'26 ruling) | Resolved favorably | De-risk |
| BBS $500M cost-out program | Active | ~75% delivered; completes YE26 (1 yr early) | Ahead | Operational tailwind |
Tone: confident reaffirmation; mgmt notably consistent post Fisher → Lewis CEO transition. 10% EPS algorithm reaffirmed for FY26. Capital allocation pace is well-telegraphed ($800M FY26 vs $1.54B FY25 — deleveraging year). Q1 +22% EPS / +10% OpE on +1% volume suggests 10% floor is conservative vs ~$4.05 consensus. Risk caveats: (1) NA capacity-constrained until Millersburg ramps in 2027 — deliberate share loss until then; (2) EMEA Benepack absorbed at ~flat OpE contribution in 2026 (similar to Florida Can ramp profile), 2027 earnings ramp; (3) $35M H2-weighted Millersburg+ends-domestication startup drag (already in guide); (4) SA volume recovery from Q1 inventory/weather (April +20% rebound), need 4-6% LT range to hold; (5) Section 232 April-2026 restructure ruled net-neutral (filled cans NOT added to derivatives list); (6) Mid-severity contradiction noted on EMEA margin runway: Fisher Q2'25 "wouldn't expect EMEA margins to improve" vs Rabbitt Q1'26 "EMEA has the most runway to improve profit" — direct disagreement post CEO transition; (7) NA 2026 volume framing reset (Fisher Q3'25 "in line with or ahead of market" → Lewis Q4'25/Q1'26 "bottom end of 1-3%, capacity-constrained" = deliberate share loss until Millersburg). Watch: April momentum durability into Q2 print; Millersburg ramp; potential NC East Coast plant tied to strategic customer LTA = embedded option.
Upcoming Catalysts
| # | Catalyst | Timing | What to Watch | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NA capacity unlock — Millersburg ramp + East Coast (NC) optionality | Q3'26 startup → 2027 ramp | $35M FY26 startup/ends-tariff costs H2-loaded and transitory; sets up sharp NA op-leverage acceleration in 2027; second NC plant tied to strategic-customer LTA is embedded option | 2027 is the NA story |
| 2 | EMEA inflection — Benepack + structural margin runway | Q1'26 → 2027 ramp | Q1 EMEA OpE +20%; FY26 guide above 3-5% range with 2x leverage; Benepack (€184M, 80% stake, BE+HU) closed Feb'26, ~flat 2026, 2027 earnings ramp; lowest profit-per-can = most explicit margin runway | Strongest accelerator |
| 3 | Capital return + EVA-driven compounding | Throughout FY26 | $800M total return ($600M+ buyback) on top of $1.54B in FY25; share count -16% over 2 years; FCF >$900M; leverage gliding to 2.5x | Mechanically delivers 10%+ EPS even capacity-constrained |
| 4 | April'26 enterprise-wide volume rebound durability | Q2'26 print | April +MSD enterprise; SA +20% YoY erasing Q1 deficit; signals 2H'26 volume reacceleration | Critical for quality-of-growth narrative |
| 5 | Section 232 / aluminum tariff resolution | Resolved April'26 | Net-neutral to slight-positive (filled cans NOT on derivatives list); MWP spike supports US aluminum producers | De-risked |
| 6 | BBS $500M cost-out completion | YE'26 | ~75% delivered; completes 1 year early | Operational tailwind |
| 7 | Energy drinks + RTD growth (NA category outperformer) | Ongoing FY26 | MNST/CELH explicitly called out as NA outperformers; planned NC East Coast plant for one strategic customer | Sustained category growth signal |
| 8 | Aluminum can substrate share gain vs PET/glass | Ongoing | BALL: "the can is winning in every region"; 2025 US cans +2% while all other substrates declined >2%; EU still has long substrate-share runway | Structural tailwind |
| 9 | Brazil consumer recovery durability | Q2-Q3'26 | April +20% YoY rebound; Q1 was inventory/weather, not demand; SA 4-6% LT range achieved | Confirmed |
| 10 | Contract book — 2027 >90% / balance-of-decade >50% | Multi-year | Locked-in volume/pricing visibility deeper than peers | Visibility advantage |
| 11 | M&A optionality — Benepack integration + NC East Coast plant | FY26-FY28 | Benepack absorbed flat 2026, ramping 2027; NC plant LTA-tied | Embedded options |
| 12 | Q4'26 ABF / capital return refresh | Q4'26 | Possible $1B+ FY27 capital return as leverage reaches 2.5x | Forward look |
Street Q&A
| # | Analyst (Firm) | Topic | Mgmt Response | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Roxland (Truist) | Volume cadence — Q1 SA weakness, EMEA Benepack/UAC | April enterprise +MSD; SA +20% YoY rebound erasing Q1 inventory-driven decline; Benepack flat OpE 2026, ramps 2027 | Well Answered |
| 2 | Ghansham Panjabi (Baird) | Aluminum tariffs / Section 232 / pass-through | Immediate aluminum pass-through; formulaic energy/freight pass-through; Section 232 April'26 restructure de minimis to slightly positive (filled cans NOT on derivatives list) | Well Answered |
| 3 | George Staphos (BofA) | Capacity, contracts, capital deployment | Sold out 2026; 2027 >90% contracted; balance-of-decade >50%; Millersburg $35M startup costs mostly Q3; potential NC East Coast plant late decade tied to strategic customer LTA | Well Answered |
| 4 | Anthony Pettinari (Citi) | EMEA margin trajectory | Lewis: EMEA has most runway to improve profit; lowest profit-per-can; 2x op leverage; Benepack absorbed at ~flat OpE 2026 then ramps | Well Answered (mid-severity contradiction with Fisher Q2'25 "wouldn't expect margins to improve") |
| 5 | Phil Ng (Jefferies) | NA volume / Millersburg ramp | Bottom end of 1-3% NA volume in 2026, capacity-constrained; Millersburg ramps 2027; deliberate share loss until then | Well Answered |
| 6 | Mike Leithead (Barclays) | Capital return pace / leverage | $800M FY26 (deleveraging year vs $1.54B FY25); buyback $600M+; leverage gliding to 2.5x; FCF >$900M | Well Answered |
| 7 | Gabe Hajde (Wells Fargo) | South America cadence | April +20% rebound erases Q1 decline; LT 4-6% range confirmed; Q1 was inventory/weather not demand | Well Answered |
| 8 | Edlain Rodriguez (Mizuho) | Inflation by region | Mostly formulaic pass-through; energy/freight some lag; aluminum immediate | Partial |
| 9 | Various | Contract book duration / pricing | 2027 >90%, balance-of-decade >50% — visibility deeper than peers | Well Answered |
| 10 | Roger Spitz (BNP) | Energy drink + RTD growth | Energy + non-alc explicitly called out as NA outperformers; planned NC East Coast plant for one strategic customer | Well Answered |
| 11 | Various | Section 232 / Midwest Premium | MWP spiked for all aluminum industry; net positive for US aluminum producers; April changes de minimis for filled imports, slightly positive | Well Answered |
| 12 | Various | Base pricing opportunity | Limited near-term; price/mix already in algorithm | Partial |
| 13 | Various | Buyback pace not pressed | Confirmed $600M+ FY26 baseline | Underweighted by Street |
Contradictions
| # | Topic | Severity | Statement A | Statement B | Why it's a tension |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EMEA margin runway — direct CEO transition disagreement | MEDIUM | Fisher (Q2'25): "I wouldn't expect margins to improve" in Europe | Rabbitt (Q1'26): EMEA "has the most runway to improve profit" | Direct disagreement on a key earnings driver post Fisher → Lewis CEO transition. EMEA is the strongest 2026 accelerator (+40% OpE Q1) but the framing reset shows fresh management is more bullish than the prior CEO. |
| 2 | NA 2026 volume framing reset | MEDIUM-HIGH | Fisher (Q3'25): NA 2026 would be "in line with or ahead of market" | Lewis (Q4'25 / Q1'26): "Bottom end of 1-3%, capacity-constrained" — deliberate share loss until Millersburg ramps in 2027 | Reset to deliberate share loss vs prior "in line with or ahead of market." Reflects honest acknowledgment of capacity constraint but is a narrative walk-back. |
| 3 | SA 2025 guide drift | LOW | Earlier 2025: "Above 4-6%" range | Within one quarter: "Within 4-6%" | Drift from above-range to within-range; minor tightening |
| 4 | SA 2026 "low end" qualifier softened | LOW | Earlier framing implied low-end of range | Q1'26 Q&A softened despite Q1 volume decline (April rebound rationalized) | Framing softened post-soft Q1; April +20% rebound supports the softer framing but timing is convenient |
| 5 | EMEA prepared remarks vs Q&A framing | LOW | Q1'26 prepared remarks framing strong | Q&A questioning softened the runway commentary | Style/tone variation, not substance |
| 6 | Tariff impact tone shift | LOW | Earlier: "25-30% pass-through" | Q1'26: "De minimis / slightly positive" | Different events technically (Section 232 vs broader tariff regime); framing has shifted favorably as April'26 ruling crystalized |
Indirect Read-Throughs
| Name | Relationship | What BALL signaled | Read-through |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monster Beverage (MNST) | Customer / energy drinks | Energy drinks explicitly called out as NA outperformer; planned NC East Coast plant for one strategic customer signals sustained energy category growth | POSITIVE — sustained energy demand |
| Celsius Holdings (CELH) | Customer / energy drinks | Same — energy growth signal | POSITIVE |
| Coca-Cola (KO) | Major customer | April enterprise +MSD; non-alc category outperformer in NA | POSITIVE |
| PepsiCo (PEP) | Major customer | Same — non-alc strength | POSITIVE |
| Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) | Customer | Non-alc accelerating | POSITIVE |
| Constellation Brands (STZ) | Customer / hard seltzer + RTD | RTD category strength | POSITIVE |
| AB InBev (BUD) / Heineken | Customers / beer | MCC stake bought back by ABI = non-event; beer category mixed | NEUTRAL |
| Alcoa (AA) | Aluminum supplier | Section 232 + Midwest Premium spike = net positive for US aluminum producers | POSITIVE |
| Century Aluminum (CENX) | Aluminum supplier | Same — MWP spike + domestication of ends = incremental US demand | POSITIVE |
| Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) | Aluminum supplier | Same | POSITIVE |
| Norsk Hydro (NHY.OL) | Aluminum supplier | Same — global aluminum demand | POSITIVE |
| Crown Holdings (CCK) | Direct competitor | BALL "in line with market" NA/EMEA; underperformed peers in SA Q1 due to inventory; April rebound | NEUTRAL — share dynamics |
| Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) | Direct competitor | Same — comparable dynamics | NEUTRAL |
| O-I Glass (OI) | Substrate competitor (glass) | BALL: "the can is winning in every region"; 2025 US cans +2% while glass declined | NEGATIVE — substrate shift |
| Berry Global (BERY) | Substrate competitor (PET/plastic) | Same — substrate shift to aluminum durable | NEGATIVE |
| Amcor (AMCR) | Plastics packaging | Substrate shift narrative | NEGATIVE |
| Sealed Air (SEE) | Packaging adjacent | — | NEUTRAL |
| Boeing / RTX | Former Aerospace customer | Aerospace divested Feb 2024 — BALL is now pure-play packaging | N/A |
| Benepack (acquired Feb'26) | M&A | €184M, 80% stake, Belgium + Hungary; flat 2026, 2027 earnings ramp | Strategic asset |
| UAC Saudi Arabia (divested) | M&A | Sold; segment reporting reflects retroactively | Cleanup |
Data sourced from Daloopa. Document search is currently in beta; transcript and filing snippets may vary.