Financial Trends -- 7/10
Ball is in a clear multi-year recovery from the 2022-2023 trough driven by destocking and
aluminum deflation. Volume has inflected positively and broadly across all three segments,
with FY2025 global growth of +4.1% above the long-term 2-3% algorithm. Comparable EPS hit
a new record of $3.57 (+12.6% YoY), surpassing the prior 2021 peak. Record adjusted FCF of
$956M demonstrates strong underlying cash generation as a pure-play packaging business. The
main concern is that EPS growth is disproportionately driven by share buybacks (-10.4% diluted
shares) rather than operating earnings growth (EBITDA +3.9%), and NCA operating leverage remains
below the 2x target at just 0.7x despite strong volume recovery.
Weight: 25%
FY2025 Comparable EPS
$3.57
+12.6% YoY | New record | 3 consecutive years of growth
FY2025 Comparable EBITDA
$2,041M
+3.9% YoY | Lags EPS growth | Buybacks doing heavy lifting
FY2025 Adjusted FCF
$956M
Record | +141% vs adj. $397M in FY24 | Pure-play cash engine
FY2025 Global Volume Growth
+4.1%
Above 2-3% algo | Q4 volumes +6% | Broad-based recovery
Annual Financial Summary (USD M, FYE December 31)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Segment Revenue | 11,381M | 12,658M | 11,318M | 11,036M | 12,431M |
| Rev YoY | — | +11.2% | -10.6% | -2.5% | +12.6% |
| NCA Revenue | 5,856M | 6,696M | 5,963M | 5,619M | 6,286M |
| EMEA Revenue | 3,509M | 3,854M | 3,395M | 3,466M | 3,983M |
| SA Revenue | 2,016M | 2,108M | 1,960M | 1,951M | 2,162M |
| Comparable EBITDA | 2,133M | 1,957M | 2,112M | 1,944M | 2,041M |
| EBITDA YoY | — | -8.3% | +5.3% | -4.6% | +3.9% |
| Comparable Diluted EPS | $3.49 | $2.78 | $2.90 | $3.17 | $3.57 |
| EPS YoY | — | -20.3% | +4.3% | +9.3% | +12.6% |
| CapEx | (1,726M) | (1,651M) | (1,045M) | (484M) | (474M) |
| Free Cash Flow (GAAP) | — | — | 818M | (369M) | 788M |
| Adjusted FCF | — | — | — | 397M | 956M |
| Diluted Shares | 331.6M | 320.0M | 317.0M | 308.2M | 276.0M |
| Diluted Shares YoY | — | -3.5% | -0.9% | -2.8% | -10.4% |
| Net Debt | 7,174M | 8,400M | 7,874M | 4,788M | 5,800M |
| Net Debt / EBITDA | 3.4x | 4.3x | 3.7x | 2.5x | 2.8x |
Note: Ball reports under US GAAP in USD. Fiscal year ends December 31. All figures in
millions of USD except per-share data and ratios. 2024 GAAP FCF distorted by $5.6B
aerospace sale cash taxes; adjusted FCF of $397M per company disclosure. Comparable
metrics exclude business consolidation and other non-recurring items.
EPS recovery is the headline story -- record $3.57 in FY2025.
After falling from
$3.49 in FY2021 to a trough of
$2.78 in FY2022, comparable EPS has
inflected upward for three consecutive years: +4.3%, +9.3%, +12.6%. However, the share count
decline (-10.4% in FY2025) is doing much of the heavy lifting -- EBITDA grew only +3.9%
while EPS grew +12.6%, signaling a lower-quality earnings expansion driven by buybacks
funded partly by aerospace divestiture proceeds and new leverage.
Segment Operating Performance (Annual)
EMEA is the standout; NCA operating leverage disappoints.
EMEA comparable operating earnings grew +19% in FY2025 to
$495M, with consistent 2x+ operating
leverage. NCA grew only +3.3% despite +4.8% volume growth (0.7x leverage vs. 2x target),
hurt by mix shift toward lower-margin energy/non-alc categories and Section 232 tariff costs.
NCA margin actually declined from 13% to 12%. South America steady at
$327M (+10.5%), margin flat at 15%.
Share Count Reduction and Capital Return
Share count declining at an accelerating pace -- powerful EPS compounder.
Diluted shares fell 10.4% in FY2025 (vs. -2.8% in FY2024, -0.9% in FY2023). Shares outstanding
are down 16% over 2 years from
315.6M to
266.1M. $1.32B of buybacks in FY2025,
funded substantially by aerospace divestiture proceeds. Management targets 4-6% annual share
count reduction and $1.54B combined shareholder returns in FY2025.
Quarterly Segment Revenue (Q1 2024 through Q4 2025)
| Metric | Q1 24 | Q2 24 | Q3 24 | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCA Revenue | 1,403M | 1,469M | 1,456M | 1,291M | 1,463M | 1,613M | 1,638M | 1,572M |
| NCA YoY | -6.7% | -4.4% | -5.5% | -6.5% | +4.3% | +9.8% | +12.5% | +21.8% |
| EMEA Revenue | 810M | 880M | 950M | 826M | 903M | 1,050M | 1,059M | 971M |
| EMEA YoY | -2.9% | -4.3% | +5.3% | +11.8% | +11.5% | +19.3% | +11.5% | +17.6% |
| SA Revenue | 482M | 422M | 484M | 563M | 544M | 477M | 508M | 633M |
| SA YoY | +7.1% | +4.2% | -1.0% | -8.6% | +12.9% | +13.0% | +5.0% | +12.4% |
Revenue acceleration is broad-based and unmistakable.
NCA revenue went from -6.7% in Q1 2024 to +21.8% in Q4 2025 -- a dramatic inflection driven
by volume recovery (+4.8% FY2025) and aluminum price pass-through. EMEA showed the strongest
swing, from -2.9% in Q1 2024 to +19.3% in Q2 2025, boosted by the Benepack acquisition.
South America flipped from -8.6% in Q4 2024 to +12.9% in Q1 2025. Note that revenue growth
is heavily aluminum-price driven (+12.6% revenue on only +4.1% volume).
Quarterly Comparable Operating Earnings (Q1 2024 through Q4 2025)
| Metric | Q1 24 | Q2 24 | Q3 24 | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCA Comp OE | 192M | 210M | 203M | 142M | 195M | 208M | 210M | 159M |
| NCA OE YoY | +4.9% | +20.0% | +3.6% | -9.0% | +1.6% | -1.0% | +3.4% | +12.0% |
| EMEA Comp OE | 85M | 113M | 128M | 90M | 96M | 129M | 147M | 123M |
| EMEA OE YoY | +16.4% | +15.3% | +24.3% | +12.5% | +12.9% | +14.2% | +14.8% | +36.7% |
| SA Comp OE | 55M | 37M | 78M | 126M | 69M | 51M | 80M | 127M |
| SA OE YoY | +10.0% | +23.3% | +27.9% | +0.8% | +25.5% | +37.8% | +2.6% | +0.8% |
EMEA consistently delivers 2x operating leverage; NCA struggles.
EMEA comparable operating earnings grew double digits every quarter in 2025, peaking at
+36.7% in Q4. NCA earnings were
essentially flat in Q2 (-1.0%) despite nearly 10% revenue growth -- a clear operating leverage
miss. SA showed strong +25.5% in Q1 but decelerated to +0.8% by Q4 on tough comps.
Quarterly Comparable EPS and EBITDA (Q1 2024 through Q4 2025)
EPS growth sustained in the +8-22% range; EBITDA lags at +1-7%.
Comparable EPS growth ranged from +8.3% to +21.6% across 2025 quarters, consistently
outpacing EBITDA growth of +0.7% to +6.6%. The gap between EPS and EBITDA growth is entirely
explained by the -10.4% reduction in diluted shares. While buyback-driven EPS growth is real,
it is a lower-quality source than operating earnings expansion. EBITDA growth of ~4% on ~4%
volume growth implies near-zero operating leverage at the consolidated level.
Acceleration / Deceleration Analysis
| Signal | Detail | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Volume Recovery (Global) | After 2-3 years of destocking/flat, +4.1% global in FY2025 with Q4 at +6% -- above long-term 2-3% algo | Accelerating |
| EPS Growth (Annual) | +4.3% (FY23) to +9.3% (FY24) to +12.6% (FY25) -- three consecutive years of acceleration | Accelerating |
| Share Count Reduction | -0.9% (FY23) to -2.8% (FY24) to -10.4% (FY25) -- accelerating buyback pace | Accelerating |
| EMEA Operating Earnings | +19% in FY2025, consistent 2x+ leverage, Benepack adds capacity through 2026-2027 | Accelerating |
| NCA Operating Leverage | +4.8% volume but only +3.3% OE growth (0.7x vs 2x target) -- mix and tariff headwinds | Below Target |
| EBITDA vs EPS Divergence | EBITDA +3.9% vs EPS +12.6% -- heavy reliance on buybacks for earnings growth | Cautionary |
| Net Debt Trajectory | Net debt up +$1B YoY to $5.8B; leverage rose from 2.5x to 2.8x -- reversing post-aerospace deleveraging | Deteriorating |
Penalty / Modifier Assessment
| Factor | Impact | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue declined 2 consecutive years (FY23-FY24) | -0.25 | Partially aluminum pass-through, but strong +12.6% bounce in FY2025 limits severity. |
| NCA margin compression (13% to 12%) | -0.25 | Largest segment margin declined despite volume recovery; mix and tariff headwinds. |
| EBITDA/EPS divergence | -0.50 | EBITDA +3.9% vs EPS +12.6% -- buyback-driven growth is lower quality. |
| Net debt increasing ($4.8B to $5.8B) | -0.25 | Leverage up from 2.5x to 2.8x; reverses post-aerospace deleveraging. |
| Record adjusted FCF of $956M | +0.25 | Strong underlying cash generation; 2.4x vs prior year adjusted FCF. |
| Volume inflection from negative to positive | +0.50 | Broad-based recovery across all segments; +4.1% global above 2-3% algo. |
Final Score: 7 / 10. Ball deserves an above-average score
reflecting genuine volume and earnings inflection, record EPS and FCF, and a credible algorithm
for continued 10%+ EPS growth. However, the underlying operating earnings growth rate is modest
(~4-5%), with buybacks doing much of the heavy lifting, and the NCA segment -- the largest --
struggles to deliver operating leverage. Net penalty adjustment: -0.5 points from a base of 7.5.
A score of 8+ would require sustained 2x operating leverage in NCA and EBITDA growth more
consistent with EPS growth.
Transcript Context (Q3 2025 - Q4 2025 Earnings Calls)
Volume Recovery: "We delivered strong volume growth across our global aluminum
packaging businesses with fourth quarter global ship volumes up 6% and full year growth of 4.1%."
-- CEO Ron Lewis. NCA grew +4.8% (vs. industry ~2%), EMEA +5.5%, SA +4.2%. All segments above
their respective long-term volume growth ranges.
Ball Business System / Profit Per Can: "Since 2019, our EMEA and North American
businesses have expanded profit per can by more than 30%, with EMEA reaching an all-time record."
-- CFO Dan Rabbitt. The $500M cost savings program is approximately three-quarters delivered through
2024-2025 and will be completed in 2026.
Capital Allocation: $1.54 billion of combined share repurchases and dividends
returned to shareholders in 2025. Share count reduced 16% over two years. Benepack acquired at
"below replacement cost." Management targeting 2.5x net debt/EBITDA while buying back 4-6% of
shares annually.
2026 Guidance: "We expect another strong year where we deliver our financial
algorithm of 10-plus percent comparable diluted EPS growth." FCF expected above $900M. NCA
constrained at low end of 1-3% volume until Millersburg opens mid-2026. EMEA volume above 3-5%
range with Benepack. Approximately $35M in NCA start-up/tariff headwinds expected.
NCA Leverage Challenge: "We grew NCA volume mid-single digits, operating
earnings 4% year-over-year... We would wish operating leverage was just a bit higher, but we are
still on a journey." -- Former CEO Dan Fisher (Q3 2025). Mix headwinds from energy/non-alc vs.
beer categories are persistent.
Daloopa (company_id: 289) and Ball Corporation earnings call transcripts (Q3 2025 - Q4 2025)