Financial Trends -- 5/10
Revenue accelerating into mid-teens YoY, but growth is largely aluminum cost pass-through.
Every margin line compressing: gross margin -270bps, comparable operating margin -110bps,
comparable EBITDA margin -190bps. Debt outrunning revenue for 4 straight quarters. Share count
declining ~17% over 5 years (the standout positive). FCF positive and growing annually
($397M to $956M) but deeply seasonal (Q1 negative). Debt penalty -1 applied. Base 6 - 1 = 5/10.
Weight: 25%
Quarterly Financial Summary (Q1'24 through Q1'26)
| Quarter | Net Sales ($M) | YoY | Gross Margin | Comp OM% | Comp EBITDA ($M) | Comp EPS | Adj FCF ($M) | Total Debt ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'24 | $2,874 | — | 20.6% | 11.8% | $459 | $0.68 | — | $5,800 |
| Q2'24 | $2,959 | — | 20.3% | 12.3% | $484 | $0.74 | ($794) | $5,793 |
| Q3'24 | $3,082 | — | 21.3% | 13.4% | $529 | $0.91 | $516 | $5,805 |
| Q4'24 | $2,880 | — | 20.5% | — | — | $0.84 | $675 | $5,673 |
| Q1'25 | $3,097 | +7.8% | 19.5% | 11.4% | $466 | $0.76 | ($746) | $6,717 |
| Q2'25 | $3,338 | +12.8% | 19.4% | 11.9% | $516 | $0.90 | $255 | $7,027 |
| Q3'25 | $3,379 | +9.6% | 20.1% | 12.8% | $559 | $1.02 | $298 | $7,208 |
| Q4'25 | $3,347 | +16.2% | 19.4% | 11.3% | $504 | $0.91 | $1,149 | $7,012 |
| Q1'26 | $3,603 | +16.3% | 17.9% | 10.7% | $509 | $0.94 | ($1,042) | $7,807 |
Note: Ball reports under US GAAP in USD. Fiscal year ends December 31. All figures in
millions of USD except per-share data. Q1'26 row highlighted. Negative FCF and rising debt in red.
Key Trends
Revenue accelerating but mostly aluminum pass-through.
Only ~$70M of the $500M Q1'26 YoY revenue gain was volume; the rest was aluminum cost
pass-through. Margins compressing across all lines: gross margin fell from 20.6% in Q1'24
to 17.9% in Q1'26, comparable operating margin from 11.8% to 10.7%, and comparable EBITDA
margin eroded similarly. Share count declining ~17% over 5 years remains the standout
positive -- a genuine EPS compounder. FCF sharply seasonal: Q1 is deeply negative in every
year shown. Debt outrunning revenue for 4 straight quarters (+16-24% debt YoY vs +8-16%
revenue YoY).
Segment Revenue -- Q1'26
Annual Financial Summary (FYE December 31)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Segment Revenue | 11,381M | 12,658M | 11,318M | 11,036M | 12,431M |
| Rev YoY | — | +11.2% | -10.6% | -2.5% | +12.6% |
| Comparable Diluted EPS | $3.49 | $2.78 | $2.90 | $3.17 | $3.57 |
| EPS YoY | — | -20.3% | +4.3% | +9.3% | +12.6% |
| Adjusted FCF | — | — | — | $397M | $956M |
| Diluted Shares | 331.6M | 320.0M | 317.0M | 308.2M | 276.0M |
| Net Debt | 7,174M | 8,400M | 7,874M | 4,788M | 5,800M |
| Net Debt / EBITDA | 3.4x | 4.3x | 3.7x | 2.5x | 2.8x |
Penalty / Modifier Assessment
| Factor | Impact | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Debt growing faster than revenue 3+ consecutive quarters | -1.0 | Total debt rose from $5,800M (Q1'24) to $7,807M (Q1'26) while revenue grew at a slower pace. Debt YoY growth of +16-24% vs revenue YoY of +8-16% for 4 straight quarters. |
Final Score: 5 / 10. Base score of 6 reflecting
record FCF ($956M), accelerating revenue growth, and powerful share count reduction (~17%
over 5 years). Debt penalty of -1 applied: total debt has outrun revenue for 4 consecutive
quarters, reaching $7.8B in Q1'26. Every margin line is compressing -- gross margin -270bps,
comparable operating margin -110bps, comparable EBITDA margin -190bps vs year-ago. Revenue
growth is largely aluminum cost pass-through rather than volume. A score of 7+ would require
margin stabilization and debt growth decelerating below revenue growth.
Daloopa (company_id: 289). FYE December 31.