Concerns & Risks — 8/10
Constructive risk profile. Reaccelerating franchise with dense near-term catalysts. Forward
EV/EBITDA (~18.8x FY26E) modestly below the ~20x megacap cloud peer blend. No material direct
China revenue (exited China marketplace). Held from 9-10 by live FTC antitrust trial (Feb 2027)
and indirect China/tariff supply-chain exposure (~70% of 3P goods sourced from China).
Weight: 15%
Fwd EV/EBITDA (FY26E)
~18.8x
vs ~20x peer blend — Below peers
Fwd P/E (FY26E)
~26.6x
FY27E ~23.3x — De-rating on growth
China Direct Revenue
~0%
Exited marketplace — No direct exposure
FTC Trial
Feb 2027
17-state antitrust case — Live overhang
Valuation
| Metric | FY2026E | Multiple | Peer Avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA (FY26) | $134.0B EBITDA | ~18.8x | ~20x |
| EV/EBITDA (FY27) | $151.7B EBITDA | ~16.6x | ~20x |
| P/E (FY26) | $8.80 EPS | ~26.6x | — |
| P/E (FY27) | $10.05 EPS | ~23.3x | — |
Modestly below peer blend despite AWS posting fastest growth in 15 quarters.
China Exposure
No material direct China revenue — exited China marketplace. Indirect exposure via supply chain: ~70% of 3P goods sourced from China, Chinese sellers ~50% of active 3P base. Management flags tariff/trade policy risk as a guidance factor.
| Direct China Revenue | ~0% |
| 3P Goods Sourced from China | ~70% |
| Chinese Sellers (% of 3P) | ~50% |
| Assessment | Direct ~0%, indirect meaningful |
Catalysts
| Catalyst | Detail |
|---|---|
| Q2 FY2026 Guidance | Above consensus: $194-199B vs ~$189B street |
| Trainium Ramp | >$225B in commitments, $50B equivalent run rate, Trainium2 "largely sold out" |
| Amazon Leo Satellite | Q3 2026 launch. Delta, JetBlue, AT&T, Vodafone, NASA commitments |
| Prime Day Shift | Shifted to Q2 — near-term revenue pull-forward |
| OpenAI Models in Bedrock | GPT-5.4 live, 5.5 coming; Bedrock managed agents expanding |
| AWS Capacity Unlocking | 8-quarter rolling customer visibility |
Regulatory Risk
| Risk | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| FTC + 17-State Antitrust | ACTIVE | Court denied motion to dismiss. Bench trial Feb 9, 2027. |
| EU DMA | ONGOING | Already forced Buy Box / marketplace concessions. |
| FTC Dark Patterns | RESOLVED | ~$2.5B settlement. Closed. |
| Tariff / Trade | MONITORING | ~70% of 3P goods from China. Management flags as guidance risk factor. |
Bull / Bear
Bull Case
Re-accelerating AWS (+28%), durable advertising (+24%), record margins (13.1%), stacked catalysts,
Q2 guide above street, $225B Trainium commitments, ~18.8x EV/EBITDA below peers.
Bear Case
Capex exploding ($44.2B Q1 alone) pressuring near-term FCF. FTC trial (Feb 2027) unquantifiable.
Tariff/China supply chain. If AI demand digests, AWS reacceleration unwinds.