Financial Trends -- 8/10
- FY2025 revenue of $716.9B vs $638.0B in FY2024, up 12.4% YoY
- Growth reaccelerated from 8.6% (Q1 2025) to 13.6% (Q4 2025), driven by AWS reacceleration, advertising strength, and strong holiday quarter execution
- Q4 2025 revenue of $213.4B was the largest quarter in company history
- Revenue has more than doubled from $469.8B in FY2021 to $716.9B in FY2025
- Gross margin expanded consistently YoY across all 8 quarters, ranging from +120bps to +230bps
- FY2025 full-year gross margin of 50.3% vs 48.9% in FY2024 and 42.0% in FY2021 -- cumulative ~830bps of expansion over 4 years
- Expansion driven by higher-margin AWS and advertising revenue mix, fulfillment network optimization, and third-party seller services (62% 3P mix, highest ever)
- Q4 quarters show seasonally lower margins due to holiday fulfillment costs
- FY2025 operating income of $80.0B vs $68.6B in FY2024, up 17% YoY
- Operating margin expanded from 2.4% (FY2022) to 11.2% (FY2025) -- a 6.5x improvement in operating income under CEO Jassy
- Q3 2025 margin dipped to 9.7% due to $4.3B in special charges ($2.5B FTC settlement + $1.8B severance); excluding these, margin would have been approximately 12.0%
- Margin expansion has been broad-based: North America, International, and AWS all contributed
- FY2025 EPS of $7.17, more than doubling from $2.90 in FY2023
- YoY growth decelerated from 216% (Q1 2024) to 5% (Q4 2025) as the base normalizes -- this is expected after the sharp 2022-2023 earnings recovery
- Q3 2025 net income of $21.2B included a $9.5B Anthropic investment gain; Q4 2025 included $2.4B in special charges reducing EPS
- Consensus expects FY2026E EPS of approximately $7.85, implying ~9% growth
- AWS revenue grew from $25.0B (Q1 2024) to $35.6B (Q4 2025) -- a $142B annualized run rate
- Growth accelerated from approximately 17% to 24% YoY as AI workloads surged
- AWS backlog reached $244B at Q4 2025, up 40% YoY -- strongest indicator of forward demand
- Operating margin compressed from 39.5% (Q1 2025) to 32.9-35.0% range as the capex ramp drove higher depreciation; this is expected during investment cycles
- FY2025 AWS operating income of $45.6B represents 57% of total Amazon operating income
| Metric | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America ($M) | $86,341M | $90,033M | $95,537M | $115,586M | $92,887M | $100,068M | $106,267M | $127,083M |
| International ($M) | $31,935M | $31,663M | $35,888M | $43,420M | $33,513M | $36,761M | $40,896M | $50,724M |
| AWS ($M) | $25,037M | $26,281M | $27,452M | $28,786M | $29,267M | $30,873M | $33,006M | $35,579M |
- North America is the largest segment (approximately 60% of revenue), with steady 8-10% growth and improving profitability
- International turned profitable in FY2023 and sustained positive operating income across all 8 quarters; operating margin improved from -6.6% (FY2022) to +2.9% (FY2025)
- AWS is the highest-margin segment (32-40% operating margins) and is accelerating on AI demand
- Q3 2025 North America op income dipped to $4.8B due to the $2.5B FTC settlement charge
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $469,822M | $513,983M | $574,785M | $637,959M | $716,924M |
| Op Income ($M) | $24,879M | $12,248M | $36,852M | $68,593M | $79,975M |
| Op Margin | 5.3% | 2.4% | 6.4% | 10.8% | 11.2% |
| Net Income ($M) | $33,364M | ($2,722M) | $30,425M | $59,248M | $77,670M |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | $2.90 | $5.53 | $7.17 |
| Gross Margin | 42.0% | 43.8% | 47.0% | 48.9% | 50.3% |
- Revenue compounded from $469.8B (FY2021) to $716.9B (FY2025) -- a $247B increase in 4 years
- Operating income went from $24.9B to $80.0B, with FY2022 as the trough ($12.2B, 2.4% margin) during the post-COVID over-investment period
- FY2022 net loss of ($2.7B) was driven by investment write-downs (Rivian); the company returned to strong profitability in FY2023 and has compounded since
- Gross margin expanded ~830bps from 42.0% to 50.3% over 5 years -- structural improvement from higher-margin revenue mix (AWS, advertising, 3P services)
- EPS more than doubled from $2.90 (FY2023) to $7.17 (FY2025)
| Metric | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $716.9B | ~$808B | ~$900B+ |
| EPS | $7.17 | ~$7.85 | ~$9.50+ |
| P/E | 29.3x | 26.7x | ~22x |
| Consensus Rating | — | Strong Buy (45 analysts) | — |
| Avg. Price Target | — | ~$281-$286 (+34% upside) | — |
- FY2026E revenue of approximately $808B implies 12-13% growth, consistent with recent trajectory
- FY2026E EPS of approximately $7.85 implies approximately 9% growth -- conservative given operating leverage and AWS reacceleration
- Forward P/E of 26.7x on FY2026E is reasonable for a company with three oligopoly positions, 12%+ revenue growth, and expanding margins
- Average analyst price target of $281-$286 implies 34%+ upside from current $209.77
Revenue reaccelerated from approximately 10% to 13-14% YoY growth in H2 2025, driven by AWS reacceleration (17% to 24%), advertising strength (22% growth), and improving e-commerce execution. Operating margin expanded from 2.4% (FY2022) to 11.2% (FY2025) -- a transformational improvement. Gross margin expanded approximately 830bps over 5 years. EPS more than doubled from $2.90 (FY2023) to $7.17 (FY2025).
The primary concern preventing a higher score is FCF compression: TTM FCF declined from $53B to $11B due to the massive capex ramp ($125B in 2025, $200B guided for 2026). While operating cash flow grew 20% YoY to $139.5B, the investment cycle means reported FCF will remain depressed until capex moderates. This is investment-driven, not operational, but it introduces execution risk at unprecedented scale.
Score: 8/10 -- Exceptional revenue growth, margin expansion, and earnings trajectory, offset by FCF compression from the largest capex cycle in corporate history.