Built by Claude FableAKAM | Management Quality: 4/10
Deep dive pages: Overview | Business Model | Financial Trends | Thematic Exposure | Management Quality | Investor Sentiment | Concerns, Catalysts & Risks
Bottom line: Leighton (CEO since 2013, co-founder) and McGowan (CFO since 2019) have the cleanest guidance record in our coverage: 14 straight quarters with revenue and non-GAAP EPS at or above the guided range. They also beat-and-raised FY2023 and FY2025. Strategic promises made 4+ quarters ago hit at 83% (15 of 18). The score is held down by the rubric, not by execution. Three mechanical red flags fire (insider selling with no buying, FCF falling 3 quarters while revenue grows, and convertible debt growing far faster than revenue), and "2+ red flags" caps the score in the 3 to 4 band. Without the cap the score would be 5 (8 initial, minus 3). Two of the three flags come from the same decision: borrowing to fund contracted CIS / GPU capacity.
Leadership and tenure
| Role | Executive | In seat since | Change in last 2 yrs? |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEO | F. Thomson (Tom) Leighton, co-founder | Jan 2013 | No |
| CFO | Edward J. McGowan | Mar 2019 | No |
| COO / GM Cloud Tech | Adam Karon | n/a | No announced change (his Mar 12, 2026 sale of $1.8M was outside a 10b5-1 plan per Form 4; not a departure) |
| CTO | Robert Blumofe | n/a | No |
Sources: FMP key-executives (2026-10-19); Akamai FY2026 DEF 14A (sec.gov). Daloopa 8-K search for Item 5.02 in 2024Q4 to 2026Q3 returned only the May 2026 ESPP approval, with no officer departures (8-K 2026Q1 p.2). Board refresh: Janaki Akella and Bas Burger joined in Q2 2025 (FY2025Q2 call).
Headline guidance vs actuals (14 resolved quarters, guidance from the prior call)
| Metric | Q1'23 | Q2'23 | Q3'23 | Q4'23 | Q1'24 | Q2'24 | Q3'24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev guide ($M) | 900 to 915 | 923 to 937 | 937 to 952 | 985 to 1,005 | 980 to 1,000 | 967 to 986 | 988 to 1,008 |
| Rev actual ($M) | 915.7 | 935.7 | 965.5 | 995.0 | 987.0 | 979.6 | 1,004.7 |
| EPS guide | 1.30 to 1.34 | 1.38 to 1.42 | 1.48 to 1.52 | 1.57 to 1.62 | 1.59 to 1.64 | 1.51 to 1.56 | 1.56 to 1.62 |
| EPS actual | 1.40 | 1.49 | 1.63 | 1.69 | 1.64 | 1.58 | 1.59 |
| Result | Top / Beat | In / Beat | Beat / Beat | In / Beat | In / Top | In / Beat | In / In |
| Metric | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Q2'26 | Q3'26E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rev guide ($M) | 995 to 1,020 | 1,000 to 1,020 | 1,012 to 1,032 | 1,035 to 1,050 | 1,065 to 1,085 | 1,060 to 1,085 | 1,075 to 1,100 | 1,105 to 1,130 |
| Rev actual ($M) | 1,019.9 | 1,015.1 | 1,043.5 | 1,054.6 | 1,094.9 | 1,073.6 | 1,099.7 | 1,117.9 cons. (FMP) |
| EPS guide | 1.49 to 1.56 | 1.54 to 1.59 | 1.52 to 1.58 | 1.62 to 1.66 | 1.65 to 1.85 | 1.50 to 1.67 | 1.45 to 1.65 | 1.60 to 1.80 |
| EPS actual | 1.66 | 1.70 | 1.73 | 1.86 | 1.84 | 1.61 | 1.59 | 1.67 cons. (FMP) |
| Result | Top / Beat | In / Beat | Beat / Beat | Beat / Beat | Beat / In (top) | In (mid) / In | Top / In | Pending 11/5 |
- Revenue landed at or above the low end in 14 of 14 quarters, and at or above the top end in 7. EPS landed at or above the top end in 10 of 14. Headline guidance hit rate: 100%.
- The beat cushion has deteriorated. EPS beat the top of the range by $0.10 to $0.20 every quarter of 2025. In 2026 it has landed mid-range, and the ranges themselves widened to $0.17 to $0.20 (from $0.04 to $0.06 in 2023 to 2024) as CIS ramp timing became harder to call. Management is building more slack into the ranges, which is not the same as beating them.
Promise-tracking table (forward commitments made 4+ quarters ago, actuals from Daloopa)
| Promise (Source) | Timeframe | Actual Result | Hit/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY24 revenue $3.966B to $3.991B (Q3'24 call) | FY2024 | $3,991.2M, top of range | Hit |
| FY24 non-GAAP EPS $6.31 to $6.38 (Q3'24) | FY2024 | $6.48 | Hit (beat) |
| FY24 security growth 15% to 17% cc (Q3'24) | FY2024 | 16.4% cc | Hit |
| FY24 compute growth raised to ~25% cc (Q3'24) | FY2024 | 25.4% cc | Hit |
| FY24 non-GAAP op margin ~29% (Q3'24) | FY2024 | 29% | Hit |
| Hold "about 30%" op margin while redeploying spend (Q3'24) | FY2025 | 30% | Hit |
| FY25 revenue $4.0B to $4.2B (Q4'24 call) | FY2025 | $4,208.2M, above top | Hit (beat) |
| FY25 non-GAAP EPS $6.00 to $6.40 (Q4'24) | FY2025 | $7.12 | Hit (beat) |
| FY25 security growth ~10% cc (Q4'24) | FY2025 | 9% cc | Narrow miss |
| FY25 Zero Trust + API security ARR +30% to 35% cc (Q4'24) | FY2025 | Q4'25 revenue $90M, +34% cc (Q4'25 call) | Hit |
| FY25 compute growth ~15% cc (Q4'24) | FY2025 | 12% cc (legacy OCA contract moved to partners, ~5 pt drag) | Miss |
| FY25 CIS ARR +40% to 45% cc off $259M exit-2024 ARR (Q4'24, reiterated Q1 to Q3'25) | Exit 2025 | Q4'25 CIS $93.7M x4 = $375M (+45%); Q4 growth 44% cc | Hit |
| Delivery decline shrinks to ~10% (Q4'24) | FY2025 | -5% cc vs -14% in FY24 | Hit (beat) |
| FY25 capex ~19% of revenue (Q4'24) | FY2025 | $818.0M = 19.4% | Hit |
| FY25 non-GAAP op margin ~28% (Q4'24) | FY2025 | 30% | Hit (beat) |
| $100M CIS customer workloads ramp by end of 2025 (Q4'24) | Late 2025 | CIS growth stepped up from 29% (Q2'25) to 39% (Q3'25) to 44% (Q4'25), and management attributed the step-up to the large contracts | Hit |
| Quarterly guidance Q1'25 to Q4'25 (calls Q4'24 to Q3'25) | 2025 | All 4 quarters at or above range (table above) | Hit |
| 2026 "revenue acceleration and margin expansion vs 2025" (Q4'24) | FY2026 | Margin guide cut to 25% to 26% vs 30% in FY25 to fund the CIS build; revenue acceleration still pending (H1'26 +5.6% vs FY25 +5.4%) | Miss (margin) |
| Not scored (too recent or long-dated): FY26 CIS growth of at least 50% cc; double-digit growth in 2027, upgraded to "low teens"; 30%+ op margin by end of decade | 2026 to 2030 | CIS Q2'26 growth 39% cc, so H2 has to step up sharply | Pending |
Hit rate: 15 of 18 resolved = 83% (86% if the 1-point security miss counts as half). Both misses on Brooker's angles are informative:
- Compute. The 15% miss came from deliberately offloading legacy OCA, while CIS itself hit.
- 2026 margin. The 2026 margin promise was broken on purpose. In Feb 2026 management traded margin for the CIS / GPU build (FY2025Q4 call), before the Anthropic-linked deal was signed.
Guidance revision pattern (annual)
| Year | Initial guide | Revisions | Actual | Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | Rev $3,700M to $3,775M; EPS $5.40 to $5.60 | Raised Q1, Q2, Q3 (EPS to $6.08 to $6.13) | Rev $3,811.9M, EPS $6.20 | Beat and raise x3 |
| FY2024 | Q1'24 range rev $3,950M to $4,020M; EPS $6.20 to $6.40 | Revenue high end cut twice (FX, largest customer) to $3,991M; EPS raised | Rev $3,991.2M, EPS $6.48 | Mixed: revenue trimmed, EPS raised |
| FY2025 | Rev $4,000M to $4,200M; EPS $6.00 to $6.40 | Raised Q1, Q2, Q3 (EPS to $6.93 to $7.13) | Rev $4,208.2M, EPS $7.12 | Beat and raise x3 |
| FY2026 | Rev $4,400M to $4,550M; EPS $6.20 to $7.20; op margin 26% to 28% | Q1: low end raised to $4,445M, op margin ~26%. Q2: rev high end cut to $4,530M (FX), EPS high end to $7.05, op margin 25% to 26% | Pending | Modest trims; not substantial |
Red-flag checklist
| Red flag | Triggered? | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| CEO/CFO change in last 2 years | No | Leighton since 2013, McGowan since 2019 |
| Guidance withdrawn or substantially lowered | No | FY26 trims are small: revenue high end -$20M, EPS high end -$0.15, op margin -1 to -2 pts, all with stated reasons |
| Restatement / material weakness | No | 10-K FY25 and 10-Qs cite a past, remediated weakness, with no open weakness (10-K 2025Q4 p.25). Date of the old weakness not verified. |
| Insider selling >$10M in 12 months, no buying | Yes (-1) | Form 4s (FMP feed; 10b5-1 flags checked on SEC EDGAR): $17.1M of open-market sales (code S) by 11 insiders from 2025-10-19 to 2026-10-19, $9.9M under 10b5-1 plans and $7.2M discretionary, with zero purchases. Largest: Sundaram $3.2M, Karon $2.6M, Joseph $2.1M, CFO McGowan $2.0M (10b5-1). Tax-withholding dispositions (code F, $19.0M, including $6.3M for the CEO) are excluded. Leighton's last purchase was 2025-08-11, just outside the window; he has not sold in the open market. |
| Revenue growing but FCF declining 3+ quarters | Yes (-1) | FCF $246.8M (Q3'25) to $161.9M to $120.7M to $100.5M (Q2'26) while revenue rose. FY25 FCF $699.3M vs $833.9M in FY24. Cause is capex: Q2'26 capex was $346.5M (32% of revenue), and FY26 capex is about $3.5B (~78% of revenue) after the 8-K. |
| Failed / value-destroying M&A | No | Guardicore and Noname became the 30%+ growth security engine. Edgio contracts were bought out of bankruptcy. LayerX (Jul 2026) is too new to judge. |
| Debt growing faster than revenue 3+ quarters | Yes (-1) | Convertible notes went from $3,544M (Q3'24: $2,395M + $1,148M current) to $4,103M (Q3'25, +16% vs revenue +5%), held at about +16% YoY through Q1'26, then rose to $7,563M in Q2'26 ($5,857M + $1,706M current, +84% YoY) after the $3.5B zero-coupon raise. Cash was $4.6B (Q2'26 call). |
3 red flags. Initial score 8, minus 3 = 5. The rubric's "2+ red flags" band caps it at 3 to 4, so the score is 4 (top of the band, given the 83% to 100% hit rates).
How this connects to Brooker's three angles
-
Anthropic deal / sneaky neocloud. Management announced a "seven-year $1.8 billion commitment" from "a leading frontier model company" on the Q1'26 call (2026-05-07) and never named the customer. Bloomberg, followed by DCD, Yahoo Finance and TNW, reported the customer as Anthropic, and the 2026-09-24 8-K confirmed it: Anthropic is the counterparty under an MSA dated May 5, 2026, and Project Plans 2 and 3 add about $11.6B over 7 years. Disclosed terms of the May deal (FY2026Q1 call):
- Dedicated-capacity model. All of it is revenue, with no capex offset.
- Revenue starts in Q4'26 at $20M to $25M.
- Capex of $800M to $825M, of which $700M falls in FY26.
- Akamai has since added a $600M+ four-year robotics customer (Q2'26) and a $200M four-year US tech customer (Q4'25). Multiyear CIS commitments signed in 2026 now total more than $2.8B.
On credibility: this team hit its CIS ARR target to the point (44% to 45% vs 40% to 45% guided), so its "low teens growth in 2027" claim deserves weight. The open test is the Q4'26 ramp. CIS growth was 39% in Q2'26, and the FY26 guide needs at least 50%.
-
Edge compute capacity. The physical footprint management keeps citing is "over 4,300 points of presence in over 700 cities" (Q4'24 call) and "130 countries" (Q1'26 call). GPU capacity is "completely sold out" (Q2'26 call), and management plans up to $500M more GPU capex, ~$60M of it in 2026. The pattern fits the "management is contrarian" principle: they have pitched distributed inference for two years, and the bookings arrived in 2026.
-
10x traffic. Management's record on Delivery is better than the Street credits. They guided a ~10% decline for FY25 and delivered -5% cc. Security has been the soft promise: growth decelerated from 24.6% (FY21) to 9% (FY25), and the 2025 target was missed by a point. If agent traffic scales, Delivery is the line where management has been conservative, and Security is the one where they have over-promised.
Capital allocation note
Management ran the largest buyback in company history: $800M in 2025 (Q4'25 call; Q1'25 alone $500M) and another $410M in Q2'26. In the same quarter it issued $3.5B of zero-coupon converts and paused buybacks to fund CIS. Converts are low-cost money. Still, buying back stock right before pivoting to a capex-heavy model funded with debt looks reactive, and it is the main reason the debt and FCF flags fire together.
Assessment. On the core management test, whether they hit what they guide, Akamai's team is top-decile. Revenue and EPS landed at or above guidance in 14 of 14 quarters since 2023. FY2023 and FY2025 were clean beat-and-raise years. CIS, high-growth security, Delivery, capex and margin targets for 2025 were all hit or beaten. The CEO has been in seat for 13 years and the CFO for 7. The misses are few and mostly intentional: compute growth fell short because a legacy contract was offloaded, and the promised 2026 margin expansion was given up to fund the AI capacity build. The 4/10 score comes from the rubric's red-flag cap. The pivot to a contracted neocloud model, including the Anthropic deal confirmed in the 2026-09-24 8-K, has mechanically produced falling FCF (Q2'26 FCF $100.5M vs $235.4M a year earlier) and convertible debt up 84% YoY. Insiders sold $17.1M in the open market ($9.9M of it under 10b5-1 plans) with no buying in the past 12 months. Watch three things to see whether these flags reverse: the Q4'26 revenue ramp on the $1.8B contract ($20M to $25M guided), FY26 CIS growth of at least 50%, and FCF recovering in 2027 as management says contracted capacity turns cash-generative. If those land, this is a 7 to 8 management team temporarily scored down for the capital intensity of its own strategy.
Sources: Daloopa (company_id 251; all linked figures), FMP /stable (insider-trading, key-executives, consensus), AKAM earnings call transcripts FY2024Q3 to FY2026Q2 (shared folder). Anthropic identification: Yahoo Finance, DCD, TNW (citing Bloomberg), confirmed by the Akamai 8-K, 2026-09-24. Insider reconciliation: Form 4 filings on SEC EDGAR. Leadership: Akamai DEF 14A FY2026.
Data sourced from Daloopa