Built by Claude FableSPCX | Financial Trends: 3/10
Deep dive pages: Overview | Business Model | Financial Trends | Thematic Exposure | Management Quality | Investor Sentiment | Concerns, Catalysts & Risks
Prepared 2026-10-29, revised after the PM Review the same day. Fundamentals from Daloopa (company_id 247912), cited inline as daloopa.com/src/ID. Fiscal year = calendar year. Last print Q3 2026 (2026-10-20, 10-Q filed 2026-10-22); next print about 2027-02-25.
Bottom line: Revenue is accelerating hard and margins are expanding sharply, but the company burns a lot of cash and the share count is diluting fast. Adjusted EBITDA rose 306% YoY in Q3 and AI segment EBITDA went from -$428M to +$4,953M, but capex rose 185% YoY, so Q3 2026 FCF was about -$10.0B, compared with -$3.1B a year earlier, and Q4 capex guidance of $35B to $40B means the burn gets bigger before it gets smaller. The rubric's mandatory penalties for negative FCF (-2) and dilution above 25% (-2) take an underlying 7 down to 3.
Comparability notes (read first)
- History is recast for the xAI merger (closed 2026-02-02, accounted for as a common control merger), so the 2025 quarters already include xAI and X. Cursor closed around mid-Q3 2026 and is NOT in prior periods. It contributed $608M of Q3 revenue (per CFO Bret Johnsen, Q3 2026 call). Daloopa carries 2023 to 2025 annual figures and quarterly figures from Q1 2025 only (the S-1 did not give 2024 quarters). That means only three quarters have true YoY comparisons (Q1 to Q3 2026), not the 8 the rubric asks for. FY2021 and FY2022 are not available.
- Gross margin = Revenue minus reported Cost of revenue. Daloopa's "Derived | Gross Profit" series looks wrong for SPCX (for example it shows $14.1B of gross profit on $14.6B of revenue), so I did not use it. My TTM gross margin of 56.7% matches FMP's TTM figure.
- Non-GAAP operating income = Adjusted EBITDA minus D&A, my own calculation. The company does not report a non-GAAP operating line.
- FCF = Operating cash flow minus Purchases of PP&E. FCF margin = FCF / revenue.
Quarterly metrics ($M unless noted)
| Metric | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Q2'26 | Q3'26 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,067 | 4,071 | 5,576 | 4,960 | 4,694 | 7,814 | 14,575 | Accelerating |
| Revenue YoY % | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | +15.4% | +91.9% | +161.4% | Accelerating |
| Space revenue | 865 | 746 | 1,666 | 809 | 619 | 962 | 1,767 | Lumpy |
| Space YoY % | -28.4% | +29.0% | +6.1% | Decelerating | ||||
| Connectivity revenue | 2,475 | 2,588 | 3,097 | 3,227 | 3,257 | 4,291 | 5,248 | Accelerating |
| Connectivity YoY % | +31.6% | +65.8% | +69.5% | Accelerating | ||||
| Consumer | 1,492 | 1,721 | 1,986 | 2,009 | 2,148 | 2,485 | 3,121 | +44% / +44% / +57% |
| Enterprise and government | 983 | 867 | 1,111 | 1,218 | 1,109 | 1,806 | 2,127 | +13% / +108% / +91% |
| AI revenue | 727 | 737 | 813 | 924 | 818 | 2,561 | 7,560 | Accelerating |
| AI YoY % | +12.5% | +247.5% | +829.9% | Accelerating | ||||
| AI YoY % ex Cursor ($608M in Q3) | +12.5% | +247.5% | +755.1% | Accelerating organically | ||||
| AI solutions and infrastructure | 284 | 311 | 359 | 403 | 475 | 2,194 | 7,022 | Q3 includes $608M Cursor |
| AI solutions YoY % | +67.3% | +605.5% | +1,856% (ex Cursor +1,687%) | Accelerating | ||||
| Advertising (X) | 443 | 426 | 454 | 521 | 343 | 367 | 538 | -23% / -14% / +19% |
| Starlink subscribers (M) | 5.0 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 10.3 | 12.0 | 13.6 | +106% / +100% / +89%, slowing |
| Starlink ARPU ($/mo) | 86 | 85 | 83 | n/a | 66 | 66 | 69 | -23% / -22% / -17% YoY |
| Launches (#) | 38 | 46 | 44 | 42 | 40 | 38 | 35 | +5% / -17% / -20% YoY |
| of which customer (Falcon) | 12 | 9 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 12 | -42% / +11% / -20% YoY |
| of which internal (Starlink) | 24 | 37 | 29 | 32 | 33 | 28 | 23 | +38% / -24% / -21% YoY |
| Mass to orbit (t) | 450 | 652 | 525 | 586 | 556 | 485 | 476 | +24% / -26% / -9% YoY |
| Nameplate compute (GW, period end) | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | +233% / +250% / +183% YoY |
| AI solutions revenue per nameplate W, annualized ($) | 3.8 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 6.3 | 16.5 (15.1 ex Cursor) | +591% YoY in Q3 |
| Cost of revenue | 1,962 | 2,282 | 2,705 | 2,502 | 2,388 | 3,495 | 5,478 | |
| Gross margin (calc) | 51.8% | 43.9% | 51.5% | 49.6% | 49.1% | 55.3% | 62.4% | Expanding |
| Gross margin YoY (bps) | -270 | +1,140 | +1,090 | Expanding | ||||
| GAAP operating income | 27 | -970 | -273 | -1,373 | -1,943 | -143 | 2,791 | Inflected |
| GAAP operating margin | 0.7% | -23.8% | -4.9% | -27.7% | -41.4% | -1.8% | 19.1% | Expanding |
| GAAP op margin YoY (bps) | -4,210 | +2,200 | +2,400 | Expanding | ||||
| Adjusted EBITDA | 1,730 | 1,214 | 2,169 | 1,471 | 1,127 | 3,538 | 8,809 | Accelerating |
| Adjusted EBITDA YoY % | -34.9% | +191.4% | +306.1% | Accelerating | ||||
| Adj. EBITDA margin | 42.5% | 29.8% | 38.9% | 29.7% | 24.0% | 45.3% | 60.4% | Expanding |
| Adj. EBITDA margin YoY (bps) | -1,850 | +1,550 | +2,150 | Expanding | ||||
| D&A | 1,443 | 1,527 | 1,814 | 1,917 | 2,442 | 2,848 | 3,644 | Rising with capex |
| D&A YoY % | +69.2% | +86.5% | +100.9% | Accelerating | ||||
| Non-GAAP op income (Adj. EBITDA minus D&A) | 287 | -313 | 355 | -446 | -1,315 | 690 | 5,165 | Inflected |
| Non-GAAP op margin | 7.1% | -7.7% | 6.4% | -9.0% | -28.0% | 8.8% | 35.4% | Expanding (+2,900 bps YoY in Q3) |
| Share-based comp | 232 | 462 | 350 | 903 | 639 | 831 | 2,363 | 16% of Q3 revenue |
| SBC YoY % | +175.4% | +79.9% | +575.1% (ex Cursor $1,146M, +227.4%) | Rising | ||||
| Operating cash flow | 727 | -376 | 3,769 | 2,665 | 1,047 | 2,419 | 9,631 | Rising |
| OCF YoY % | +44.0% | n.m. (from negative) | +155.5% | Rising | ||||
| Capex (PP&E purchases) | -4,140 | -2,825 | -6,881 | -6,891 | -10,107 | -18,369 | -19,593 | Rising faster |
| Capex YoY % | +144.1% | +550.2% | +184.7% | Rising faster than OCF | ||||
| FCF (calc) | -3,413 | -3,201 | -3,112 | -4,226 | -9,060 | -15,950 | -9,962 | Negative, deeper YoY |
| FCF margin | -83.9% | -78.6% | -55.8% | -85.2% | -193.0% | -204.1% | -68.3% | Q3 -1,250 bps YoY |
| FCF YoY ($ change) | -5,647 | -12,749 | -6,850 | Declining | ||||
| Diluted EPS ($) | -0.18 | -0.34 | -0.36 | -0.81 | -1.27 | -0.09 | 0.35 | First profit in Q3 |
| Diluted wtd. shares (M) | 2,875 | 2,929 | 2,941 | n/a | 3,884 | 5,864 | 12,475 | +35% / +100% / +324% YoY |
| Total debt | n/a | n/a | n/a | 22,049 | 29,132 | 38,433 | 38,006 | YoY not testable (2025 quarterly debt not disclosed) |
| Total debt and finance leases | n/a | n/a | n/a | 23,286 | 30,286 | 39,512 | 38,989 | |
| Cash and equivalents | 24,747 | 15,852 | 93,522 | 51,294 | IPO cash being spent |
Segment profitability (Daloopa segment Adjusted EBITDA, $M)
| Metric | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Q2'26 | Q3'26 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Space Adj. EBITDA | 224 | -93 | 674 | -152 | -351 | -205 | 357 | 997 | 1,154 | 653 |
| Space margin | 25.9% | -12.5% | 40.5% | -18.8% | -56.7% | -21.3% | 20.2% | 28.0% | 30.4% | 16.0% |
| Space EBITDA YoY ($M / margin bps) | -575 / -8,260 | -112 / -880 | -317 / -2,030 | +157 / +240 | -501 / -1,440 | |||||
| Connectivity Adj. EBITDA | 1,618 | 1,583 | 1,923 | 2,044 | 2,087 | 2,597 | 3,499 | 1,602 | 3,849 | 7,168 |
| Connectivity margin | 65.4% | 61.2% | 62.1% | 63.3% | 64.1% | 60.5% | 66.7% | 41.4% | 50.7% | 62.9% |
| Connectivity EBITDA YoY (% / margin bps) | +29.0% / -130 | +64.1% / -70 | +82.0% / +460 | +140.3% / +930 | +86.2% / +1,220 | |||||
| AI Adj. EBITDA | -112 | -276 | -428 | -421 | -609 | 1,146 | 4,953 | 1,222 | 347 | -1,237 |
| AI margin | -15.4% | -37.4% | -52.6% | -45.6% | -74.4% | 44.7% | 65.5% | 41.3% | 13.2% | -38.6% |
| AI EBITDA YoY ($M / margin bps) | -497 / -5,900 | +1,422 / +8,210 | +5,381 / +11,810 | -875 / -2,810 | -1,584 / -5,180 | |||||
| AI GAAP operating income | -936 | -1,524 | -1,722 | -2,173 | -2,469 | -1,257 | 431 | -3,973 | -1,561 | -6,355 |
| AI segment capex | 2,567 | 749 | 4,760 | 4,651 | 7,723 | 15,828 | 16,444 | 463 | 5,633 | 12,727 |
| AI capex YoY % | +200.9% | n.m. (+2,013%) | +245.5% | n.m. | +125.9% |
Segment sums tie to consolidated Adjusted EBITDA (Q3'26: 357 + 3,499 + 4,953 = 8,809). Why gross margin expanded 1,090 bps YoY in Q3: almost all of it is AI. Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA rose $6,640M YoY; AI contributed +$5,381M (81%), Connectivity +$1,576M (24%) and Space -$317M. AI went from a -52.6% to a +65.5% margin as newly energized capacity was billed under cloud services agreements, and AI rose from 15% to 52% of revenue, so mix and utilization did the work. Connectivity margin rose 460 bps, but about 3 points of that is the one-time tariff refund (Q3 call). Space margin fell 2,030 bps on Starship R&D (Space R&D was $1,076M in Q2 vs $693M a year earlier, 8-K Q2 2026 p.1).
Why the decelerations (PM item 8, partial). Launch counts and mass are down YoY in Q2 and Q3 because internal Starlink Falcon launches fell (37 to 28, 29 to 23) as V2 mini deployment winds down ahead of Starship-launched V3; customer launches are roughly flat. Starlink subscriber growth slowing from +106% to +89% is partly the law of large numbers (13.6M base). ARPU down 17% YoY is described by management as geographic and plan mix; the filings do not split international vs US subscribers, so it cannot be quantified from Daloopa.
Acceleration test (YoY rates, comparable quarters): Revenue went +15.4% (Q1'26) to +91.9% (Q2'26) to +161.4% (Q3'26), which is clearly accelerating. Excluding the $608M from Cursor, Q3 growth was still +150.5%. Guidance points to more: Q1 2027 revenue of $33B to $37B (management, Q3 call) would be about +600% to +690% on Q1'26's $4.7B. Most of the acceleration is AI infrastructure cloud contracts. Connectivity is also accelerating, from +32% to +66% to +70%. Space is lumpy and launch counts are falling YoY. Starlink subscriber growth is slowing from about +106% to +89%, and ARPU is down about 17% YoY because of mix toward lower-priced markets.
Margins from trough: Gross margin is up +1,850 bps from its Q2'25 trough of 43.9% to 62.4%. Adjusted EBITDA margin is up +3,640 bps from its Q1'26 trough of 24.0% to 60.4%. GAAP operating margin is up +6,050 bps from its Q1'26 trough of -41.4% to 19.1%. Two caveats. First, Q3 Connectivity gross margin included a one-time benefit of about 3 points, mostly tariff refunds. Second, management guided Q4 total gross margin back to roughly Q2 levels (about 55%), so part of the Q3 peak will reverse.
Shares: Reported diluted weighted shares rose 324% YoY. That figure overstates economic dilution because convertible preferred converted at the IPO and the xAI merger shares came in February 2026. Real dilution is still large. In 2026 alone the company issued about 635M IPO shares (net proceeds of $85.7B at $135) and 394M Class A shares for Cursor ($42.7B). It also took on $23B of Cursor retention equity that will be expensed over about 3 years. Shares outstanding are 13,581M at Q3 2026 period end (8,247M A + 5,335M B), a point-in-time stock measure; a YoY comparison is not possible because the company was private a year ago. The YoY measure that exists is diluted weighted shares, +324% in Q3 (+100% in Q2, +35% in Q1). Buybacks of $4,346M in Q1'26 and $80M in Q2'26 (pre-IPO tender activity, $0 in Q3) offset only a small part of this. (Phase 3 correction: the Phase 2 draft said $2.0B; Daloopa shows $4,426M YTD.)
Annual (5-year view; Daloopa has FY2023 to FY2025 only, $M)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM Q3'26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | n/a | n/a | 10,387 | 14,015 | 18,674 | 32,043 |
| Revenue YoY % | n/a | +34.9% | +33.2% | n/a | ||
| Space | 3,557 | 3,796 | 4,086 | 4,157 | ||
| Space YoY % | n/a | +6.7% | +7.6% | |||
| Connectivity | 3,869 | 7,599 | 11,387 | 16,023 | ||
| Connectivity YoY % | n/a | +96.4% | +49.8% | |||
| AI | 2,961 | 2,620 | 3,201 | 11,863 | ||
| AI YoY % | n/a | -11.5% | +22.2% | |||
| Gross margin (calc) | 41.2% | 42.9% | 49.4% | 56.7% | ||
| GAAP operating income | -3,505 | 466 | -2,589 | -668 | ||
| GAAP op margin | -33.7% (incl. $3,775 impairment) | 3.3% | -13.9% | -2.1% | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA | 3,821 | 5,350 | 6,584 | 14,945 | ||
| Adjusted EBITDA YoY % | n/a | +40.0% | +23.1% | |||
| Adj. EBITDA margin | 36.8% | 38.2% | 35.3% | 46.6% | ||
| Non-GAAP op margin (Adj. EBITDA minus D&A) | 11.4% | 10.9% | -0.6% | 16.9% | ||
| Net income | -4,628 | 791 | -4,937 | -2,760 | ||
| Operating cash flow | 4,520 | 5,776 | 6,785 | 15,762 | ||
| OCF YoY % | n/a | +27.8% | +17.5% | |||
| Capex | -4,415 | -11,163 | -20,737 | -54,960 | ||
| Capex YoY % | n/a | +152.8% | +85.8% | |||
| FCF (calc) | 105 | -5,387 | -13,952 | -39,198 | ||
| FCF margin | 1.0% | -38.4% | -74.7% | -122.3% | ||
| Diluted EPS ($) | -1.68 | 0.00 (as tagged) | -1.69 | n.m. | ||
| Diluted wtd. shares (M) | 2,759 | 9,956 (different basis, see note) | 2,926 | 13,581 (period end) | ||
| Total debt | n/a | 12,621 | 22,049 | 38,006 | ||
| Total debt YoY % | n/a | +74.7% | n/a |
Note: FY2024's tagged EPS of 0.00 and 9,956M diluted shares reflect the participating-securities/preferred EPS treatment in a year with net income. They are not comparable with FY2023 or FY2025. TTM figures are sums of Q4'25 through Q3'26. FY2026 is on track for FCF of roughly -$70B or worse: 9M'26 FCF was -$35.0B (OCF $13,097M YTD, capex $48,069M YTD), and Q4 capex is guided at $35B to $40B.
Scoring
| Rubric input | Reading | Score pull |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY | +15% to +92% to +161%, guided much higher | 10 |
| Margins | GM +1,090 bps, GAAP OM +2,400 bps, Adj. EBITDA margin +2,150 bps YoY (Q3), part one-time | 9 |
| Share count | Diluting heavily (IPO, xAI, Cursor, heavy SBC) | 1 |
| FCF | Negative and deeper YoY in every 2026 quarter, getting worse into Q4 | 1 |
| Initial score | Two inputs top of range, two at the bottom; growth momentum earns the upper half | 7 |
| Negative FCF | -2 (cap 6) | 5 |
| Share dilution >25% YoY | -2 (reported diluted shares +324%; still double digit even pro forma) | 3 |
| Revenue up, operating income down | Not applied: Q3'26 GAAP op income $2.8B vs -$0.3B. FY2025 did trigger it (op income $466M to -$2.6B) | 0 |
| Debt growing faster than revenue 3+ quarters | Not testable on a quarterly YoY basis: 2025 quarterly debt is not disclosed. The annual test can be run and trips: FY2025 total debt +74.7% vs revenue +33.2%. One annual observation is not 3+ consecutive quarters, so no penalty is applied, but this is a debt-outgrowing-revenue year and is flagged | 0 |
| Final score | 3/10 |
Quality gate, positive and growing FCF: No. FCF has been negative in every reported quarter since Q1 2025 and has gotten worse YoY: -$3.1B in Q3'25, -$10.0B in Q3'26, and TTM -$39.2B.
Assessment. SpaceX's income statement is now among the fastest-improving at scale in the market. Revenue growth went from 15% to 161% in three quarters, Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 60%, and Q3 2026 brought the first GAAP operating profit ($2.8B) and positive EPS ($0.35). This is driven by AI cloud-services contracts on top of a Connectivity business still growing near 70%. The cash flow statement points the other way. Capex has scaled from $4.4B in FY2023 to $55B TTM and is guided to $35B to $40B in Q4 alone, so FCF has fallen from roughly breakeven in FY2023 to -$39B TTM. Equity has been the main funding source: the $85.7B IPO, xAI and Cursor share issuance, and $2.4B of quarterly SBC. Debt has also risen to $38B. Revenue growth alone is not financial strength under this framework. Until operating cash flow covers the compute and Starship build-out, the trend profile is "accelerating P&L, deteriorating cash and dilution." The mandatory penalties apply and the score is 3/10. The quarterly history is also short: there are only three YoY-comparable quarters, the xAI recast affects comparisons, and Cursor is inorganic. That limits confidence that the acceleration will last.
Data sourced from Daloopa.