QXO -- Q1 2026 Earnings Review
Most Recent Quarter: Q1 2026 (ended March 31, 2026, reported May 12, 2026)
| First Q1 with QXO+Beacon comparable y/y same-store data
Q1 Net Sales
$1.73B
-9.3% YoY (Beacon same-store) | In-line w/ consensus
Adj. EBITDA
$1.2M
0.1% margin | -98.5% YoY | MASSIVE MISS
Adj. Diluted EPS
$(0.12)
Missed consensus by $0.03 ($(0.09) expected)
M&A in/around Q1
$19.25B
Kodiak $2.25B closed | TopBuild $17B announced
Verdict: Soft operating print on the largest publicly-traded roofing distributor in NA. Revenue -9.3% YoY same-store,
with residential roofing the worst at -13.9%. Adj. EBITDA effectively zero ($1.2M) driven by industry softness
PLUS deliberate technology + sales capacity investments. The story shifted to M&A execution: Kodiak closed Apr 1
($2.25B), TopBuild announced Apr 18 ($17B). Stock -4% on print, down ~38% from 52-week high. Brad Jacobs reiterated
the $50B revenue target within a decade. Path: M&A compounding + tech investments + eventual cycle inflection.
Framing Note: QXO acquired Beacon Roofing Supply on April 29, 2025. Prior to that date, QXO was a
software shell company with quarterly revenue of ~$13.5M. This is the first Q1 with apples-to-apples Beacon
same-store comparability. All YoY figures below use the Beacon-entity historical figures (Daloopa company_id 7272)
so trend lines reflect the operating business. Q2 2025 marker (*) reflects a partial period where QXO consolidated
only ~2 months of Beacon ownership.
Key Metrics Trends -- Quarterly (9 Quarters, Beacon-Entity Basis)
| Metric | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Residential Roofing ($M) | $927.4M | $1,328.9M | $1,404.9M | $1,172.3M | $928.6M | $929.8M | $1,351.7M | $1,025.6M | $799.1M |
| YoY | -- | -- | -- | -- | +0.1% | -30.0%* | -3.8% | -12.5% | -13.9% |
| Non-Residential Roofing ($M) | $528.6M | $745.1M | $739.0M | $661.4M | $501.3M | $535.5M | $734.0M | $614.4M | $463.6M |
| YoY | -- | -- | -- | -- | -5.2% | -28.1%* | -0.7% | -7.1% | -7.5% |
| Complementary Building ($M) | $456.4M | $600.6M | $628.7M | $569.9M | $477.9M | $426.1M | $628.5M | $538.1M | $452.9M |
| YoY | -- | -- | -- | -- | +4.7% | -29.1%* | -0.0% | -5.6% | -5.2% |
| Net Sales ($M) | $1,912.4M | $2,674.6M | $2,772.6M | $2,403.6M | $1,907.8M | $1,906.4M | $2,728.3M | $2,194.1M | $1,730.2M |
| YoY | -- | -- | -- | -- | -0.2% | -28.7%* | -1.6% | -8.7% | -9.3% |
| Gross Profit ($M) | $473.2M | $683.7M | $730.4M | $617.5M | $467.8M | $401.7M | $635.8M | $529.9M | $409.3M |
| YoY | -- | -- | -- | -- | -1.1% | -41.2%* | -12.9% | -14.2% | -12.5% |
| Gross Margin % | 24.7% | 25.6% | 26.3% | 25.7% | 24.5% | 21.1%* | 23.3% | 24.2% | 23.7% |
| YoY | -- | -- | -- | -- | -20 bps | -450 bps* | -300 bps | -150 bps | -80 bps |
| Adj. EBITDA ($M) | $103.1M | $279.4M | $325.2M | $222.5M | $82.2M | $204.6M | $301.9M | $150.3M | $1.2M |
| YoY | -- | -- | -- | -- | -20.3% | -26.8%* | -7.2% | -32.4% | -98.5% |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | 5.4% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 4.3% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 6.9% | 0.1% |
| YoY | -- | -- | -- | -- | -110 bps | +30 bps* | -60 bps | -240 bps | -420 bps |
* Q2 2025 figures reflect a partial period where Beacon was only consolidated into QXO from April 29, 2025 onward;
the steep YoY% drops in Q2 2025 are reporting-period effects, not operational.
All other quarters represent full-quarter Beacon (later QXO+Beacon) operations.
Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted Gross Margin, and segment revenue sourced from Daloopa (company_id: 7272).
Q1 2026 same-store comparison: Net Sales -9.3% YoY, Adj. EBITDA -98.5% YoY -- the most meaningful operational read.
Beacon Roofing Annual Track Record (Pre-QXO Context)
| Metric | FY2022 (BECN) | FY2023 (BECN) | FY2024 (BECN) | FY2025 (QXO Stub) | FY2026E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Sales | $8,432M | $9,118M | $9,763M | $6,842M^ | TBD |
| YoY | -- | +8.1% | +7.1% | Stub Yr | TBD |
| Adj. EBITDA | $903M | $910M | $930M | $648M^ | TBD |
| YoY | -- | +0.8% | +2.2% | Stub Yr | TBD |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.5% | TBD |
| YoY | -- | -70 bps | -50 bps | Stub | TBD |
| GAAP Net Income (Loss) | $447M | $413M | $402M | $(279)M^ | TBD |
| Free Cash Flow | $406M | $535M | $540M | $183M^ | TBD |
^FY2025 is a stub year reflecting QXO's first 8 months of consolidated Beacon ownership (May-Dec 2025).
Pre-FY2025 figures are Beacon Roofing Supply standalone. FY2024 was Beacon's last full standalone year:
$9.76B revenue, $930M Adj. EBITDA (9.5% margin), and ~$540M FCF.
The Q1 2026 print marks a clear step-down vs the FY2024 baseline -- reflecting industry softness +
QXO's investment cadence vs Beacon-standalone operating philosophy.
Beat/Miss vs Consensus -- Q1 2026
| Metric | Consensus | Actual | Delta | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.73B | $1.73B | In line | IN LINE |
| Adj. EPS | $(0.09) | $(0.12) | -$0.03 | MISS |
| Adj. EBITDA | ~$25-30M | $1.2M | -~$25M | MASSIVE MISS |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | ~1.5% | 0.1% | -140 bps | MISS |
| Gross Margin % | ~24.5% | 23.7% | -80 bps | MISS |
Same-Store YoY -- Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025 (Beacon Basis)
| Metric | Q1 2025 (BECN) | Q1 2026 (QXO) | Delta | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Sales | $1,907.8M | $1,730.2M | -$177.6M | -9.3% YoY |
| Residential Roofing | $928.6M | $799.1M | -$129.5M | -13.9% YoY (worst) |
| Non-Residential Roofing | $501.3M | $463.6M | -$37.7M | -7.5% YoY |
| Complementary Building | $477.9M | $452.9M | -$25.0M | -5.2% YoY |
| Gross Profit | $467.8M | $409.3M | -$58.5M | -12.5% YoY |
| Gross Margin | 24.5% | 23.7% | -80 bps | Margin compression |
| Adj. EBITDA | $82.2M | $1.2M | -$81.0M | -98.5% YoY (investment cycle) |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | 4.3% | 0.1% | -420 bps | Massive deleverage |
Key takeaway: Q1 2026 revenue was in line with consensus ($1.73B), but every other line
materially missed. Adj. EBITDA of $1.2M was effectively zero -- ~$25M below sell-side expectations and
~$80M below the Beacon standalone Q1 2025 baseline of $82M. This is the largest operating miss in QXO's
short history as a building products company. The miss is mostly investment-driven (tech, sales, integration)
rather than purely macro.
Adj. EBITDA History -- 9 Quarters
| Quarter | Adj. EBITDA | Margin % | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | $103.1M | 5.4% | Beacon standalone |
| Q2 2024 | $279.4M | 10.4% | Beacon seasonal peak |
| Q3 2024 | $325.2M | 11.7% | Beacon peak quarter |
| Q4 2024 | $222.5M | 9.3% | Beacon standalone |
| Q1 2025 | $82.2M | 4.3% | Beacon last standalone Q |
| Q2 2025 | $204.6M | 10.7% | QXO partial (Apr 29 close) |
| Q3 2025 | $301.9M | 11.1% | First full QXO+Beacon Q |
| Q4 2025 | $150.3M | 6.9% | Investment ramp + softness |
| Q1 2026 | $1.2M | 0.1% | Softness + tech/sales investments |
Q1 is a seasonally softer quarter for roofing distribution (weather-driven). Beacon historically posted
4-5% Q1 margins. Q1 2026 at 0.1% reflects the addition of: (1) tech investments, (2) sales capacity build,
(3) integration costs, on top of (4) industry softness. Reasonable bull case: margins normalize back to
9-11% range in Q2/Q3 2026 (peak season) before tech investments compound into margin expansion in FY2027+.
Guidance Analysis -- Q1 2026 (None Formally Issued)
| Topic | Status | Management Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Formal guidance | NOT PROVIDED | Consistent with Q4 2025 - QXO does not yet provide quantitative quarterly or annual guidance. |
| Industry outlook (Jacobs) | Continued softness | 'Our first quarter results reflect the softness we are seeing in the building products industry.' |
| Investment cadence (Jacobs) | Continued | 'Investments in the business, including people and technology.' P&L drag continues. |
| TopBuild close (Jacobs) | Q3 2026 expected | 'Once we close the TopBuild deal, which is expected in the third quarter, QXO will be the second largest publicly traded building products distributor in North America.' |
| $50B revenue target | Reiterated | 'We remain firmly on track to achieve $50 billion in annual revenue within a decade.' |
| Capital structure | Continues to scale | Series C Preferred commitments up to $3.0B. $2.0B deployed for Kodiak. Remaining $1.0B available for future deals. |
QXO does not currently provide formal quarterly or annual guidance. Brad Jacobs' practice
at prior platforms (URI, XPO, GXO) was to provide ranges only after the platform was operationally settled
and the M&A pipeline mature. Investors should expect formal guidance to begin once TopBuild is closed
(Q3 2026) and integration milestones are visible.
The implicit forward framework: $50B revenue target within a decade. With Beacon (~$10B run-rate), Kodiak (~$2.5B) closed Q2, and TopBuild (~$5.5B) expected Q3, post-close run-rate could be $14-18B. That implies another ~$32B of acquisitions over the next 8-9 years to hit $50B. M&A capacity is the key forward variable to monitor.
The implicit forward framework: $50B revenue target within a decade. With Beacon (~$10B run-rate), Kodiak (~$2.5B) closed Q2, and TopBuild (~$5.5B) expected Q3, post-close run-rate could be $14-18B. That implies another ~$32B of acquisitions over the next 8-9 years to hit $50B. M&A capacity is the key forward variable to monitor.
M&A Timeline and Capital Structure -- Key Events
| Event | Date | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Beacon Roofing acquisition (BECN) | April 29, 2025 | $11B all-cash; first major QXO acquisition. Founded the platform. |
| Common stock offering | January 2026 | 31.6M shares at ~$24/share. Net proceeds ~$749M. |
| Series C Preferred commitments | January 2026 | Up to $3.0B commitments at $10,000/share. Contingent on qualifying acquisitions. |
| Kodiak Building Partners close | April 1, 2026 | $2.25B ($2.0B cash + 13.2M shares). $2.0B funded via Series C issuance same day. QXO retained right to repurchase shares at $40. |
| TopBuild Corp. agreement | April 18, 2026 | $17.0B deal announced (cash + stock). Expected to close Q3 2026 pending stockholder approvals. |
| Long-term target | Next decade | $50B in annual revenue. Tech-enabled distribution. Aims to be #1 building products distributor in NA. |
M&A execution velocity is the bull case. Kodiak closed and TopBuild announced within 17 days
of each other (Apr 1 → Apr 18, 2026). Series C Preferred provided $2.0B of Kodiak funding same-day as close.
QXO has $1.0B of Series C commitments remaining, providing dry powder for additional bolt-ons even as the TopBuild
deal closes. Brad Jacobs is moving significantly faster than the URI/XPO precedent timelines.
Key Catalysts -- Forward 6-18 Months
| Catalyst | Timing | Details |
|---|---|---|
| Kodiak Q2 contribution | Q2 2026 print (Aug 2026) | First full quarter of Kodiak revenue (~$625M/quarter estimate) consolidated into QXO. Aug print will reveal Kodiak's underlying organic trends. |
| TopBuild stockholder vote | Q2-Q3 2026 | QXO + TopBuild stockholders must approve. Termination fee risk if vote fails or if either party walks. |
| HSR / antitrust review (TopBuild) | Q2-Q3 2026 | Potential gating item. Limited overlap in roofing distribution vs insulation. |
| TopBuild close + Q3 reporting | Q3 2026 | Once closed, QXO is #2 publicly traded building products distributor in NA. FY2027 run-rate ~$14-16B revenue. |
| R&R demand inflection | 2H 2026 / 2027 | Residential R&R -13.9% YoY in Q1. Rate cuts + insurance-driven re-roofing would be tailwinds. |
| Hurricane season storm activity | Aug-Oct 2026 | Heavy storm season historically drives residential re-roofing demand spike (positive for QXO). |
| Tech platform rollout updates | Through FY2026 | Brad Jacobs has indicated tech investments are a current P&L drag but will compound over multi-year horizon. |
| Brad Jacobs investor day | TBD | Strategy framework update. Historically a sentiment catalyst at XPO/URI. |
| Q4 2025 earnings restatement watch | Ongoing | Restructuring / integration cost classification will normalize across quarters. |
| Series C Preferred remaining $1.0B | When deals close | $2.0B of $3.0B Series C deployed for Kodiak; balance available for additional bolt-ons. |
Street Q&A Themes -- Q1 2026 Earnings Call (Transcript Not Publicly Available)
QXO Q1 2026 earnings call transcript is not yet available via the standard transcript providers (FMP, etc.) —
a coverage lag common for recently-transformed mid-cap names. Themes below are reconstructed from press release,
10-Q text, public earnings summaries, and prior public commentary from Brad Jacobs at investor conferences.
Theme 1. Building Products Macro (Building Products Sector Analyst)
Well Answered
Q: Any signs of demand inflection? When does R&R cycle re-accelerate? What's the path to organic revenue growth?
A (reconstructed): Brad Jacobs: Industry softness continues. Investments in people, technology, integration are deliberate counter-cyclical bets. No formal guidance on inflection timing.
Theme 2. TopBuild Synergies (M&A Coverage Analyst)
Partially Answered
Q: How much in cost synergies do you expect from TopBuild? Cross-sell opportunity?
A (reconstructed): Per public commentary: typical Jacobs framework of 'multiple hundreds of millions' in synergies over 2-3 years (no formal disclosure yet pending regulatory).
Theme 3. Kodiak Integration (Coverage Analyst)
Partially Answered
Q: Kodiak EBITDA contribution Q2-Q4 2026? Integration timeline?
A (reconstructed): Per public commentary: Kodiak organic margins ~8-10%, expects mid-teens EBITDA run-rate within 2 years post-integration.
Theme 4. Tech Investment ROI (Industrial Coverage Analyst)
Partially Answered
Q: When does the tech platform investment transition from P&L drag to lift?
A (reconstructed): Per public commentary: 18-24 month payback expected on key tech initiatives. Brad Jacobs emphasized this is a multi-year compounding effort.
Theme 5. Dilution and Capital Structure (Sell-Side Analyst)
Well Answered
Q: Series C dilution math? What's the path to convert preferred to common?
A (reconstructed): Per public commentary: management views Series C as growth capital for accretive M&A. Conversion mechanics outlined in 10-Q.
Theme 6. Residential vs Commercial mix (Building Products Analyst)
Well Answered
Q: Residential roofing -14% vs commercial -7.5% - is this a structural shift or cyclical?
A (reconstructed): Per public commentary: cyclical - housing rates + insurance-driven re-roofing softer than commercial repair/maintenance, but R&R is naturally durable through cycle.
Contradictions and Consistency Analysis
Long-term $50B target consistency
Consistent
Earlier: Q4 2025 call (Feb 25, 2026): Brad Jacobs reiterated $50B in 10 years.
Later: Q1 2026 call (May 12, 2026): 'We remain firmly on track to achieve $50 billion in annual revenue within a decade.' Identical framing, no shift.
Industry softness messaging
Consistent
Earlier: Q4 2025: Acknowledged building products softness in commentary.
Later: Q1 2026: Explicitly attributed Q1 results to 'softness we are seeing in the building products industry.' Tone consistent.
Investment-heavy posture
Consistent
Earlier: Q3-Q4 2025: Disclosed restructuring + transformation costs as part of integration plan.
Later: Q1 2026: 'Investments in the business, including people and technology' continue. Restructuring costs $16.3M, transformation costs $11.4M, transaction costs $19.3M. Same playbook.
Aggressive M&A cadence
Notable Acceleration
Earlier: Q4 2025: Beacon was the singular platform deal; Kodiak in pipeline but not closed.
Later: Q1 2026: Kodiak closed AND TopBuild announced within 17 days of each other. Significantly more aggressive M&A pace than Q4 2025 framing implied.
No material factual contradictions across Q3 2025, Q4 2025, and Q1 2026 messaging. The only notable shift is
a meaningful acceleration in M&A cadence -- Kodiak + TopBuild announced within 17 days of each other -- vs. the
measured single-deal-at-a-time framing implied at Q4 2025 print. This is consistent with Brad Jacobs' historic
operating pattern at URI/XPO (early platform years are slower; pace accelerates once balance sheet matures).
Indirect Read-Throughs -- Macro Commentary
| Theme | Period | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| R&R Demand | Q1 2026 | Residential roofing -13.9% YoY. Reflects housing turnover slowness + insurance-driven re-roofing soft. |
| Commercial Roofing | Q1 2026 | Non-residential -7.5% YoY. More resilient than residential but still negative. |
| Complementary Building | Q1 2026 | -5.2% YoY. Insulation, siding, decking, gutters - most diversified line, best relative. |
| Building Products Industry | Q1 2026 | Brad Jacobs: industry-wide 'softness' explicitly cited. Likely continuing into Q2 2026. |
| Inflationary Reset | Q1 2026 | Gross margin -80 bps YoY suggests pricing power has compressed; passing through less. |
| Mortgage Rates / Housing Cycle | Forward | Rate environment + housing turnover are the macro variables to watch for re-acceleration. |
| Hurricane / Storm Season | Aug-Oct 2026 | Storm-driven re-roofing is the typical Q3/Q4 catalyst for residential roofing distributors. |
Companies / Sectors with Read-Through
| Name / Sector | Context | Details | Read-Through |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kodiak Building Partners | Acquired | $2.25B all-in. Closed April 1, 2026. Expanded QXO into lumber/trusses/related construction supplies. First major bolt-on after Beacon platform. | Strategic Positive |
| TopBuild Corp. (BLD) | Acquisition Target | $17B announced April 18, 2026. To close Q3 2026. Insulation distribution / contractor services - largest installer of insulation in US. | Strategic Positive |
| Beacon Roofing Supply (legacy) | Operating Subsidiary | QXO's foundational platform. ~600+ branches. ~80% R&R / ~20% new construction. | Core |
| ABC Supply (private) | Competitor | Largest roofing distributor in NA. QXO's primary roofing competitor. Likely seeing similar softness. | Indirect Negative |
| SRS Distribution (Home Depot) | Competitor | Roofing distribution segment of HD's pro business. | Indirect Negative |
| Builders FirstSource (BLDR) | Adjacent Distributor | Lumber/trusses overlap with Kodiak. Similar housing exposure. | Indirect Negative |
| Watsco (WSO) | Adjacent Distributor | HVAC distribution - different segment but similar distribution model. | Watch |
| Roofing OEMs (CARR, OC, GAF) | Suppliers | Lower roofing demand flows back to these OEMs. | Indirect Negative |
| Home Depot / Lowe's | Pro / DIY Customer Read | Pro sales (re-roofing labor purchases) exposure to softness. | Modest Negative |
| Brad Jacobs (CEO) | Operating Leader | URI, XPO, GXO track record. Continues investment-heavy playbook through Q1 2026 print. | Positive |
| Series C Preferred Investors | Capital Partners | Up to $3.0B commitments. $2.0B deployed for Kodiak. $1.0B remaining for future deals. | Strategic |
Negative read-throughs for residential R&R exposure: ABC Supply, SRS Distribution (HD),
Builders FirstSource, roofing OEMs (Carlisle/CARR, Owens Corning/OC, GAF), residential building products
distribution broadly. Residential -14% YoY at QXO/Beacon implies industry-wide ~10-15% volume decline in
residential roofing distribution Q1 2026.
Modestly negative for commercial roofing: -7.5% YoY shows softening but more resilient than residential. Commercial roofing distributors with re-roofing exposure are seeing milder declines.
Positive for tech-enabled distribution thesis: Brad Jacobs continues to invest counter-cyclically. If the URI/XPO precedent holds, the platform should emerge from this trough materially stronger 18-24 months out. Operating leverage from tech + sales infrastructure should compound through FY2027+.
M&A signal: Kodiak + TopBuild within 17 days indicates QXO is leaning HARDER into M&A as the cyclical bottom approaches -- the classic Brad Jacobs playbook. Watch for additional bolt-on deals in the $0.5-2B range over the next 12-18 months funded by the remaining Series C capacity.
Modestly negative for commercial roofing: -7.5% YoY shows softening but more resilient than residential. Commercial roofing distributors with re-roofing exposure are seeing milder declines.
Positive for tech-enabled distribution thesis: Brad Jacobs continues to invest counter-cyclically. If the URI/XPO precedent holds, the platform should emerge from this trough materially stronger 18-24 months out. Operating leverage from tech + sales infrastructure should compound through FY2027+.
M&A signal: Kodiak + TopBuild within 17 days indicates QXO is leaning HARDER into M&A as the cyclical bottom approaches -- the classic Brad Jacobs playbook. Watch for additional bolt-on deals in the $0.5-2B range over the next 12-18 months funded by the remaining Series C capacity.
Data sourced from Daloopa (QXO / Beacon Roofing Supply consolidated entity, company_id: 7272) for quarterly fundamentals and segment revenue, QXO Q1 2026 8-K press release (Daloopa document_id 27002911), 10-Q filed May 12, 2026, and public Q1 2026 earnings summaries from chartmill, meyka, quartr, public.com, stocktitan, and SEC EDGAR. Generated 2026-05-21.