Financial Trends -- 7/10

One of the cleanest top-line re-acceleration stories in infrastructure software, set against a deliberate, AI-capex-driven gross-margin compression. Revenue YoY accelerated from +26.5% to a peak of +33.6% into a ~33% plateau; FCF is positive and growing at the annual level (FY25 $261M, +56%). But non-GAAP gross margin has stair-stepped down ~670bps from its peak and the company remains GAAP-unprofitable. The central tension: whether top-line acceleration self-funds the margin investment or margins erode before growth pays off. No penalty modifiers trigger. Weight: 25%
Q1'26 Revenue
$639.8M
src | +33.5% YoY | Accelerating
Non-GAAP Gross Margin
72.8%
-430bps YoY | Compressing (AI capex)
FCF
Growing
FY25 $261M, +56% | Positive
DBNR
118%
+7pp YoY | Land-and-expand
Quarterly Revenue Trajectory ($M)
Quarter Q2'24 Q3'24 Q4'24 Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26
Revenue $401.0M $430.1M $459.9M $479.1M $512.3M $562.0M $614.5M $639.8M
YoY +26.5% +27.8% +30.7% +33.6% +33.5%
Four straight quarters of acceleration into a ~33% plateau. YoY growth climbed +26.5% (Q1'25) to +33.6% (Q4'25), holding +33.5% in Q1'26. Driver: enterprise land-and-expand -- $100K+ customers +25% YoY now 72% of revenue, DBNR re-accelerated +7pp YoY to 118%. The Q2'26 guide (~+30%) embeds a modest deceleration cushion.

Non-GAAP Gross Margin -- The Key Negative ($M / %)
Metric Q1'25 Q1'26 YoY
Non-GAAP Gross Margin 77.1% 72.8% -430 bps
Non-GAAP Op Margin 11.7% 11.4% -30 bps
GAAP Op Margin -11.1% -9.7% +140 bps
Non-GAAP gross margin fell -430bps YoY and -670bps from the 79.5% peak as Cloudflare front-loads GPU/AI inference capacity. Management frames this as planned and expects stabilization in 2H'26. Non-GAAP operating margin is roughly flat YoY (-30bps) because opex leverage offsets the gross-margin hit; GAAP operating margin remains negative (-9.7%) though the loss narrowed +140bps YoY. The 2H'26 stabilization is a management claim not yet evidenced in the data.

Annual Financial Summary (FY ends December)
Metric FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025
Revenue ($M) $656.4M $975.2M $1,296.7M $1,669.6M $2,167.9M
Rev YoY +48.6% +33.0% +28.8% +29.8%
Gross Profit ($M) $509.3M $742.6M $989.7M $1,290.9M $1,615.4M
GAAP Gross Margin 77.6% 76.1% 76.3% 77.3% 74.5%
Free Cash Flow ($M) ($43.1M) ($39.8M) $119.5M $166.9M $260.6M
FCF Margin -6.6% -4.1% 9.2% 10.0% 12.0%
GAAP Net Income ($M) ($260.3M) ($193.4M) ($183.9M) ($78.8M) ($102.3M)
Key trends

Geographic Revenue ($M, Quarterly)
Geography Q1'25 Q1'26 YoY Trend
US (~50%) $234.9M $315.8M +34% Accelerating
EMEA (~27%) $133.9M $175.7M +31% Strong
APAC (~15%) $73.4M $98.6M +34% Accelerating

Cloudflare reports revenue only geographically (no product-line disclosure). All three regions are compounding in the low-to-mid 30s% YoY, led by the US at ~50% of revenue.


Enterprise Traction & Free Cash Flow ($M / metric)
Metric Q1'25 Q2'25 Q3'25 Q4'25 Q1'26
$100K+ Customers 3,527 3,712 4,009 4,298 4,416
DBNR % 111 114 119 120 118
Free Cash Flow ($M) $52.9M $33.3M $75.0M $99.4M $84.1M
FCF Margin 11.0% 6.5% 13.3% 16.2% 13.1%
FCF positive every quarter and up YoY in four of the last five. $100K+ customers grew +25% YoY to 4,416 (now 72% of revenue) and DBNR re-accelerated +7pp YoY to 118% (off the 120% Q4'25 peak). The Q1'26 FCF-margin dip to 13% (from the 16% Q4'25 peak) reflects front-loaded AI capex, not deterioration.

Scoring & Penalty Audit

Base profile: revenue YoY accelerating (positive), FCF positive and growing (positive), but non-GAAP gross margin compressing 100+bps (negative) and share count diluting modestly rather than declining (negative). This is a strong-momentum but margin-pressured profile -- base ≈ 7.

Penalty Modifier Triggered? Detail
Negative FCF No FCF positive and growing (FY25 $261M, +56%)
Share dilution >10% YoY No +3.6% non-GAAP diluted -- below the 10% threshold
Revenue up but op income declining No Non-GAAP op income grew in dollars; GAAP op loss narrowed YoY
Debt > revenue growth 3+ qtrs No Single Q2'25 $2.0B convertible raise, flat since -- not a sustained trend

Score of 7/10 reflects a high-quality but not flawless financial-trend profile. Revenue is genuinely accelerating (+26.5% → +33.6% into a ~33% plateau) on enterprise traction, and FCF is firmly positive and compounding. What keeps this out of the 8-10 band is margin direction: non-GAAP gross margin compressed -430bps YoY (-670bps from peak) as the company self-funds an AI/GPU buildout, and Cloudflare is still GAAP-unprofitable (loss narrowing). No mandatory penalty applies, so the base holds at 7/10.

Composite quality gate -- positiveGrowingFcf: YES. FCF inflected positive in FY23 and compounded to $261M (12% margin) in FY25, +56% YoY.


Data sourced from Daloopa (company_id: 9570). Fiscal year ends December 31. All financials in USD. Q1'26 reconstructed from review.json (Q1'26 transcript not available on FMP).