MRK -- Q1 2026 Earnings Preview
Merck's Q1 preview is about the transition from Keytruda dependence to pipeline credibility. Q4 Keytruda / Keytruda Qlex sales were $8.37B, but growth slowed to +5% ex-FX. Gardasil remains the drag: sales fell to $1.03B with -35% ex-FX growth. Winrevair is the offset, with Q4 sales of $467M and +133% ex-FX growth.
The market will not reward Merck for another ordinary Keytruda quarter unless management also provides convincing evidence that Winrevair, Keytruda Qlex, Verona/Cidara assets, and the broader pipeline can bridge the 2028-2029 LOE.
| Metric | FY2026 Guide | Source | |---|---:|---| | Revenue low | $65.5B | Daloopa | | Revenue high | $67.0B | Daloopa | | Non-GAAP EPS low | $5.00 | Daloopa | | Non-GAAP EPS high | $5.15 | Daloopa | | Q1 focus | Not guided separately | Keytruda, Gardasil, Winrevair, pipeline spend |
| Metric | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | Keytruda / Qlex sales | $7.21B | $7.96B | $8.14B | $8.37B | | Keytruda growth ex-FX | +6% | +9% | +8% | +5% | | Gardasil sales | $1.33B | $1.13B | $1.75B | $1.03B | | Gardasil growth ex-FX | -40% | -55% | -25% | -35% | | Winrevair sales | $280M | $336M | $360M | $467M | | Non-GAAP EPS | $2.22 | $2.13 | $2.58 | $2.04 |
Keytruda is still the engine, but the narrative has shifted from peak growth to durability. Qlex and broader label expansion can help, but investors are focused on how much revenue at risk in 2028-2029 can be replaced. Gardasil remains the most visible negative revision item, with China and demand normalization weighing on the vaccine franchise.
Winrevair is the bright spot. The quarter needs evidence that PAH adoption is still early, reimbursement friction is manageable, and the product can become a multi-billion-dollar bridge asset. Pipeline commentary on enlicitide, islatravir, Verona, Cidara, and oncology combinations is central to whether Merck gets credit beyond Keytruda.
| Catalyst | Timing | What Matters | |---|---|---| | Q1 Keytruda / Qlex | Apr 30 | Growth rate and Qlex launch commentary | | Gardasil reset | Apr 30 | Whether China weakness is stabilizing | | Winrevair adoption | Apr 30 | Sequential growth, prescriber breadth, reimbursement | | Pipeline readouts | 2026 | Enlicitide, islatravir, oncology combinations | | Verona / Cidara integration | 2026 | Whether acquired assets add credible post-Keytruda bridge |
| Date | Item | Read-through | |---|---|---| | Feb 2026 | Merck issued FY2026 revenue guide of $65.5-$67.0B / high | Lower-than-hoped outlook keeps focus on pipeline | | 2025-2026 | Gardasil China weakness continued | Biggest near-term product headwind | | 2025 | Verona and Cidara acquisitions expanded pipeline | Increases strategic optionality but raises execution burden | | 2026 | Keytruda Qlex launch | Important lifecycle-management signal |
| Quarter | Non-GAAP EPS | Product Mix Signal | |---|---:|---| | Q4 2025 | $2.04 | Keytruda +5%, Gardasil -35%, Winrevair +133% | | Q3 2025 | $2.58 | Keytruda +8%, Gardasil -25%, Winrevair +141% | | Q2 2025 | $2.13 | Gardasil -55% was the concern | | Q1 2025 | $2.22 | Keytruda steady, Winrevair scaling |