Mosaic delivered a sharp adj EPS miss in Q1 2026, posting $0.05 vs $0.20 Street as elevated sulfur and ammonia input costs gutted Phosphate stripping margins. Net sales of $2.998B beat consensus +3.8% on the back of Phosphate revenue ($1.4B vs $1.1B PY) and continued Potash strength ($667M, EBITDA $275M +15% YoY). But consolidated Adjusted EBITDA fell to $416M from $544M — Phosphate EBITDA collapsed to $115M (-58% YoY) and Mosaic Fertilizantes EBITDA dropped to $79M (-35% YoY). GAAP EPS was -$0.81 on $442M of notable items ($328M non-cash) tied to winding down Riverview operations. Management withdrew FY phosphate production guidance and Q2 Fertilizantes EBITDA guidance, while cutting 2026 CapEx by $250M to $1.25B — defensive posture. Stock fell ~4% to $21.33 in early trading.

Key Metrics Trends

Metric	Q1 2024	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026
Net sales	$2.7B	$2.8B	$2.8B	$2.8B	$2.6B	$3.0B	$3.5B	$3.0B	$3.0B
Net sales YoY %	-	-	-	-	-2.2%	+6.7%	+22.8%	+5.6%	+14.4%
Phosphate seg net sales	-	-	-	$1.2B	$1.1B	$1.2B	$1.3B	$1.0B	$1.4B
Phosphate seg net sales YoY %	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-16.7%	+27.3%
Potash seg net sales	-	-	-	$600M	$570M	$711M	$695M	$700M	$667M
Potash seg net sales YoY %	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	+16.7%	+17.0%
Mosaic Fert seg net sales	-	-	-	$1.1B	$900M	$1.2B	$1.6B	$1.1B	$937M
Mosaic Fert seg net sales YoY %	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	+0.0%	+4.1%
Adj EBITDA total	$576M	$584M	$448M	$594M	$544M	$566M	$806M	$505M	$416M
Adj EBITDA total YoY %	-	-	-	-	-5.6%	-3.1%	+79.9%	-15.0%	-23.5%
Phosphate seg EBITDA	$277M	$308M	$265M	$341M	$276M	$217M	$280M	$144M	$115M
Phosphate seg EBITDA YoY %	-	-	-	-	-0.4%	-29.5%	+5.7%	-57.8%	-58.3%
Potash seg EBITDA	$281M	$271M	$180M	$212M	$240M	$278M	$329M	$336M	$275M
Potash seg EBITDA YoY %	-	-	-	-	-14.6%	+2.6%	+82.8%	+58.5%	+14.6%
Mosaic Fert EBITDA	$83M	$96M	$83M	$82M	$122M	$159M	$241M	$45M	$79M
Mosaic Fert EBITDA YoY %	-	-	-	-	+47.0%	+65.6%	+190.4%	-45.1%	-35.2%
Adj diluted EPS	$0.65	$0.54	$0.34	$0.45	$0.49	$0.51	$1.04	$0.22	$0.05
Adj diluted EPS YoY %	-	-	-	-	-24.6%	-5.6%	+205.9%	-51.1%	-89.8%
GAAP diluted EPS	$0.14	$-0.50	$0.38	$0.53	$0.75	$1.29	$1.29	$-1.64	$-0.81
GAAP diluted EPS YoY %	-	-	-	-	+435.7%	-358.0%	+239.5%	-409.4%	-208.0%

Operating fundamentals are decelerating sharply. Adj EPS trajectory: $0.65→$0.54→$0.34→$0.45→$0.49→$0.51→$1.04→$0.22→$0.05 — sequential collapse driven by Phosphate margin squeeze. Revenue is masking trouble: top-line +14.4% YoY but EBITDA -23.5%. Potash is the lone bright spot (Canpotex sold out through June). Guidance withdrawal and CapEx cut signal management is in defensive mode through 2H 2026; further raw material cost pressure could trigger more curtailments.

Beat/Miss

Guidance

Catalysts

Street Q&A

Contradictions

Read-Throughs

This Quarter vs Consensus

Metric	Consensus	Actual	Variance	Beat/Miss
Adjusted diluted EPS	$0.20 Zacks consensus	$0.05	-$0.15 / -75%	MAJOR MISS
Net revenue	$2.89B Street	$2.998B	+$108M / +3.8%	BEAT
Adjusted EBITDA	~$520M Street	$416M	-$104M / -20%	MISS
Phosphate segment EBITDA	~$200M expected	$115M	Sulfur ($590/tonne) + ammonia ($610/tonne) crushed margin	MAJOR MISS
Potash segment EBITDA	~$260M expected	$275M	Canpotex sold out through June	Modest BEAT

Pattern: Mosaic's quality of beat/miss has deteriorated since Q3 2025 peak earnings ($1.04 adj EPS). Three consecutive disappointing quarters: Q4'25 ($0.22), Q1'26 ($0.05). Phosphate is the swing factor — segment EBITDA fell from $341M (Q4'24) to $115M (Q1'26), a ~$226M drag. Top-line strength is misleading; the cost stack is moving faster than DAP prices. Capital allocation now defensive: CapEx -$250M, FY guidance pulled. This is a 'show-me' tape until phosphate margins stabilize.

Guidance Deep Dive

Metric	Prior Guide (Feb '26)	New Guide (May '26)	Signal
Q2 2026 Phosphate sales volume	Not provided	1.4-1.7M tonnes	Reflects partial curtailments at Louisiana and Bartow
Q2 2026 DAP FOB price	Not provided	$760-$780/tonne	Implies $400+/tonne realized stripping margin
Q2 2026 Potash sales volume	Not provided	1.9-2.1M tonnes	Hydrofloat ramp; K-Mag removed from guidance
FY 2026 Phosphate production	Provided in Feb	WITHDRAWN	Operating plan under review
FY 2026 Potash production	Maintained	9.0M tonnes maintained	Potash market structurally tight
FY 2026 Mosaic Fert Q2 EBITDA	Provided in Feb	WITHDRAWN	Reflects raw material + product price uncertainty
FY 2026 CapEx	$1.5B prior	$1.25B	-$250M cut; defers less time-sensitive projects

CEO Bruce Bodine struck a defensive tone: 'we're closely monitoring raw material markets, particularly sulfur and ammonia.' Capital allocation pivot — 'lowered our 2026 CapEx guidance by $250M to $1.25 billion' and 'optimized our portfolio of projects.' Withdrawing forward guidance is significant; Bodine framed it as 'lack of certainty' rather than a confidence statement. Potash narrative remains constructive (Canpotex sold through June). The company is going into 'cash flow protect' mode rather than growth mode. Source: MOS Q1 2026 transcript.

Upcoming Catalysts

Catalyst	Timing	Consensus / Watch	Implication
Sulfur / ammonia cost stack	Q2 2026	Sulfur ~$590/tonne, ammonia ~$610/tonne baked into Q2 guide	Single biggest swing factor for phosphate EBITDA
DAP global pricing	Through 2H 2026	Mgmt sees $760-$780 Q2 realized; India/Brazil restocking	Bull case requires +$50-100/tonne move
Riverview wind-down	Through Q2 2026	$442M Q1 notable items ($328M non-cash); residual costs in Q2	Drag on GAAP, neutral for adj EBITDA
Canpotex potash demand	Through 2H 2026	Fully sold through June; tight supply	Supports Potash EBITDA durability
Hydrofloat ramp (Potash)	FY 2026	9.0M tonne production guide maintained	Volume tailwind partly offsets per-tonne pressure
Brazil fertilizer demand	2H 2026	Strong long-term outlook; near-term currency/credit overhang	Mosaic Fertilizantes recovery hinges on this

Street Q&A

Question	Management response	Assessment
Why withdraw FY phosphate production guidance now?	Bodine: 'lack of certainty' on raw material markets; reviewing operating plan for 2H. Did not commit to a re-issue timeline.	Defensive — non-committal
Q2 sulfur cost outlook — does it rise further into 3Q?	Mgmt declined to forecast 3Q sulfur; pointed to refinery supply being 'available through Q2 with no constraints' but noted dynamic market.	Partly answered — light
Why are Q2 potash shipments soft vs the strong demand backdrop?	K-Mag (~150-175K tonnes) was removed from potash guidance — apples-to-apples shipments are normal. Strong 2H expected.	Well answered
Why no Mosaic Fertilizantes Q2 guidance — what's the base case?	Bodine: 'don't feel comfortable being able to give you a forecast'; cited Brazilian credit availability and pricing uncertainty.	Deflected — concerning
Are CapEx cuts permanent or pause?	'Optimized portfolio' — defers less time-sensitive projects rather than canceling. CapEx flexibility remains.	Honest

Contradictions

Topic	View 1	View 2	Explainer
Phosphate demand vs production	Mgmt: 'Bullish on phosphate fundamentals; demand strong globally'	Mgmt: 'Withdrawing full-year production guidance' and idling Louisiana and Bartow	Bullish demand commentary clashes with action of cutting production — suggests cost-driven curtailment, not demand weakness
FY guidance posture	FY 2026 Potash production guide MAINTAINED at 9.0M tonnes	FY 2026 Phosphate production guide WITHDRAWN	Segment-level confidence diverges; potash structurally tight, phosphate margin-driven

Indirect Read-Throughs

Theme	Commentary	Read-through
Phosphate fertilizer peers	Sulfur/ammonia costs crushed MOS phosphate margin to $115M	Negative read for CF Industries, NTR (phosphate), ICL — watch input cost commentary
Potash market	Canpotex sold out through June; K-Mag pulled; potash tight	Positive read for NTR (potash), PLL, K+S; supports potash pricing power
Sulfur producers / midstream	Sulfur ~$590/tonne baked into Q2 guide — elevated for now	Positive for sulfur producers (OXY byproduct, Calumet); negative for sulfur consumers
Ammonia producers	Ammonia ~$610/tonne — directly tied to nat gas	Positive for CF Industries (NA gas advantage); negative read for European ammonia importers
Brazilian agribusiness	Mosaic Fert EBITDA weak ($79M); credit + FX uncertainty	Cautious read on broader Brazil ag (BRF, JBS, Vale); FX/credit concerns
Capital discipline among commodity chemicals	CapEx -$250M (-17%) to $1.25B	Read-through that commodity chemical peers may follow with their own capital cuts

Data sourced from Daloopa. Document search is currently in beta; transcript and filing snippets may vary.