Lam Research — FQ3 FY2026 Earnings Preview
FQ3 FY2026 = Calendar Q1 2026 (Jan–Mar 2026) ·
Reports April 22, 2026 AMC · Prepared April 6, 2026
Earnings Date
Apr 22, 2026
After Market Close
Guide Revenue
$5.7B ±$300M
Consensus ~$5.65B
Guide EPS
$1.35 ±$0.10
Consensus ~$1.35
Guide Gross Margin
49.0% ±1pp
Down from 49.7% actual
Beat Rate (L6Q)
6 / 6 — 100%
Rev & EPS both
Avg Rev Beat
+2.3%
Range: +1.5% to +3.4%
Avg EPS Beat
+6.9%
Range: +2.2% to +10.8%
CY2026 WFE Outlook
~$135B
+23% YoY — super-cycle
Executive Summary
Lam Research reports FQ3 FY2026 (March 2026 quarter) results on April 22, 2026 after the close.
This is the fourth consecutive quarter where management has guided above prior consensus, and the company
enters with a perfect 6-quarter beat streak (avg rev beat +2.3%, avg EPS beat +6.9%).
Bull case: WFE super-cycle ($135B CY2026, +23% YoY) with Lam gaining share through SAM expansion
(GAA, advanced packaging, dry resist). NAND recovery accelerating with new AI inference use case.
CSBG hitting records. Street estimates converged to guidance midpoint, leaving room for typical beat.
Bear case: Gross margin stepping down (49.0% guide vs. 49.7% actual last Q) as China mix normalizes.
Tariff escalation risk. Stock down ~13% from highs. Export controls could tighten. The 50% affiliate rule
removes ~$600M of CY2026 China revenue.
FQ3 Guidance vs. Estimates
| Metric | Low | Midpoint | High | Consensus | Our Est. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.4B | $5.7B | $6.0B | ~$5.65B | $5.75–5.85B est. |
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 48.0% | 49.0% | 50.0% | ~48.8% | 49.3–49.8% (beat pattern) |
| Non-GAAP Op Margin | 33.0% | 34.0% | 35.0% | ~33.5% | 34.2–34.8% |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $1.25 | $1.35 | $1.45 | ~$1.35 | $1.38–1.42 (beat pattern) |
Historical 8-Quarter Metrics
| Metric | CY24Q1 | CY24Q2 | CY24Q3 | CY24Q4 | CY25Q1 | CY25Q2 | CY25Q3 | CY25Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue ($B) | $3.79B | $3.87B | $4.17B | $4.38B | $4.72B | $5.17B | $5.32B | $5.34B |
| Systems Revenue ($B) | $2.40B | $2.17B | $2.39B | $2.63B | $3.04B | $3.44B | $3.55B | $3.36B |
| CSBG Revenue ($B) | $1.40B | $1.70B | $1.78B | $1.75B | $1.68B | $1.73B | $1.78B | $1.99B |
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 48.7% | 48.5% | 48.2% | 47.5% | 49.0% | 50.3% | 50.6% | 49.7% |
| Non-GAAP Op Margin | 30.3% | 30.7% | 30.9% | 30.7% | 32.8% | 34.4% | 35.0% | 34.3% |
| Non-GAAP EPS | — | — | $0.86 | $0.91 | $1.04 | $1.33 | $1.26 | $1.27 |
Geographic Revenue Mix
| Region | CY24Q1 | CY24Q2 | CY24Q3 | CY24Q4 | CY25Q1 | CY25Q2 | CY25Q3 | CY25Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 42% | 39% | 37% | 31% | 31% | 35% | 43% | 35% |
| Korea | 24% | 18% | 18% | 25% | 24% | 22% | 15% | 20% |
| Taiwan | 9% | 15% | 15% | 17% | 24% | 19% | 19% | 20% |
FQ3 expectation: China declines to low-30s or high-20s as affiliate rule impacts flow through. 50% affiliate rule removes ~$600M CY2026 China revenue.
Management Tone Assessment
| Topic | Tone | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| AI/HBM demand | Very Bullish | "We're gonna see growth every quarter." Advanced packaging +40%+ CY2026. HBM3e to HBM4/4e with up to 16 layers. |
| NAND recovery | Constructive, H2-weighted | "CY2026 will be a NAND growth year." New AI inference use case beyond prior Investor Day projections. |
| China exposure | Cautious, transparent | "WFE in China is flattish... as a percent of the total, it's gonna be down." Affiliate rule ~$600M impact. |
| WFE outlook | Confidently bullish | CY2026 WFE ~$135B (+23% YoY). "Constrained by clean room space availability." |
| Margin trajectory | Measured | GM guided down 70bps on "customer mix becoming less rich." Mix-driven, not structural. |
| Share gains | Committed | "We plan to increase our share of WFE again this year." SAM expanding from low-30s to mid-30s. |
Beat / Miss Track Record — 6 / 6 Consecutive Beats
| Quarter | Rev Est. | Rev Actual | Rev Beat | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | EPS Beat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CY24Q3 | ~$4.06B | $4.17B | +2.7% | ~$0.81 | $0.86 | +6.2% |
| CY24Q4 | ~$4.30B | $4.38B | +1.9% | ~$0.89 | $0.91 | +2.2% |
| CY25Q1 | ~$4.65B | $4.72B | +1.5% | ~$1.00 | $1.04 | +4.0% |
| CY25Q2 | ~$5.00B | $5.17B | +3.4% | ~$1.20 | $1.33 | +10.8% |
| CY25Q3 | ~$5.20B | $5.32B | +2.3% | ~$1.15 | $1.26 | +9.6% |
| CY25Q4 | ~$5.23B | $5.34B | +2.1% | ~$1.17 | $1.27 | +8.5% |
Key Catalysts
Bull Catalysts
- AI/HBM etch intensity: HBM3e → HBM4/4e with up to 16-layer stacking
- NAND recovery: $40B upgrade cycle + new AI inference use case
- Gate-All-Around transition: ~$1B incremental SAM per 100K WSPM
- WFE super-cycle: $135B CY2026 — could go higher if clean rooms ready
- CSBG record $1.99B in CY25Q4; Equipment Intelligence & Dextro cobots
Bear Risks
- China export controls tightening: 50% affiliate rule + potential new legislation
- Tariff escalation: overhang on margins; already guided down 70bps
- Gross margin compression: China mix normalization — 'mix component will dominate'
- Clean room space constraints: limits CY2026 upside, creates lumpiness
- Stock down ~13% from highs already pricing some risk
What to Watch on April 22
1. Revenue magnitude:
Does Lam beat the high end of $6.0B, or come in near midpoint ($5.7B)?
2. FQ4 guidance:
The real event. Sequential growth confirmed? Revenue guide $5.9–6.2B expected.
3. Gross margin trajectory:
Does 49% hold or further compression? Any structural improvement narrative?
4. China revenue %:
Does it decline to low-30s as guided, or another positive surprise?
5. NAND commentary:
Is NAND recovery accelerating or still H2-weighted? Any $40B upgrade update?
6. Tariff impact:
Any quantification of tariff-related margin headwind? CY2026 WFE revision?
7. Share gain claims:
Can Tim Archer reiterate share gain expectations? New product wins?
8. Capital return:
Buyback activity, dividend updates
Source: Daloopa, Lam Research IR, MarketBeat, Benzinga