Thematic Exposure -- 9/10

Linde sits at the intersection of multiple secular growth themes, all anchored by its unmatched global distribution network and #1 market position (~33% share) in the industrial gas triopoly. The company is executing on clean energy/hydrogen, semiconductor fab gases, commercial space, healthcare, and quantum computing -- each reinforced by structural barriers including 20-30 year take-or-pay contracts and pipeline-based local monopolies. Weight: 25%

Industrial Gas Oligopoly

~33% Market Share -- Triopoly With ~75% Combined Control

Linde, Air Liquide, and Air Products control ~75% of the global industrial gas market. Barriers to entry are structural: pipeline-based distribution creates local monopolies, 20-30 year take-or-pay on-site contracts guarantee returns, and the capital intensity of building air separation units and distribution networks is prohibitive. Linde disclosed that ~65% of gas sales are defensive -- anchored by resilient end markets, fixed facility fees, or rental payments on owned assets. Per CEO Lamba on the Q4 2025 call: "these three defensive categories together account for almost two thirds of global gas sales" and "this split is almost identical in every segment."

Linde Global Share

~33%

#1 position worldwide

Top 3 Combined Share

~75%

LIN / AI / APD triopoly

Defensive Revenue

~65%

Fixed fees, resilient end markets

Contract Duration

20-30 Yrs

Take-or-pay on-site contracts

1. Clean Energy / Hydrogen -- Largest Projects in Company History

2/3 of Backlog Is Clean Energy -- OCI/Woodside Largest Projects Ever

Two-thirds of Linde project backlog supports contracted clean energy projects. The company is executing the two largest projects in its history (OCI and Woodside), both blue hydrogen with 45Q CCS credits. Lamba reiterated on the Q1 2025 call: "$8B to $10B over three years -- we are about halfway through." Importantly, Linde differentiates between blue hydrogen (viable now, supported by 45Q which predates the IRA) and green hydrogen (5-7 years away). Additional CCS hub development with Saudi Aramco targets 9-11M tonnes in Phase 1, scaling to 54M tonnes at full build. This is prudent positioning -- not speculative.

Clean Energy Backlog

~2/3

Of total project backlog

Largest Projects

OCI / Woodside

Blue hydrogen with 45Q CCS

3-Year CapEx Plan

$8-10B

About halfway through

Saudi Aramco CCS

9-11M Tonnes

Phase 1, scaling to 54M tonnes

2. Semiconductor / Electronics Fab Gases

20% of $7B+ Backlog -- Anchor Supplier at TSMC Phoenix and Samsung Taylor

20% of the record $7B+ sale-of-gas backlog is electronics. Linde is the anchor gas supplier for TSMC Phoenix (Fab 1 operating, Fab 2 ramping), Samsung Taylor TX, and additional wins expected. As fabs move to advanced nodes, gas intensity increases meaningfully -- both higher volumes per wafer and introduction of new specialty gases (EUV-related). Lamba: "I fully expect we will announce new signature fab wins in the coming months." This is structural demand tied to the ongoing semiconductor buildout, not cyclical spending.

Electronics Backlog Share

20%

Of $7B+ sale-of-gas backlog

TSMC Phoenix

Anchor Supplier

Fab 1 operating, Fab 2 ramping

Samsung Taylor TX

Anchor Supplier

Major US fab gas supply

Gas Intensity Trend

Rising

Higher volumes + new gases per node

3. Commercial Space -- 65-75% of All Orbital Launches

Toll-Road Business Scaling With the Space Economy

Linde supplies propellants for 65-75% of all orbital launches (189 launches in 2025). Texas and Florida hubs are expanding. Half a billion dollars in investment is not included in the $10B backlog. CEO Lamba expects this to become a billion-dollar business within a few years with double-digit growth. The network density and contractual nature of this business create a durable competitive advantage that scales with launch cadence.

Launch Share

65-75%

Of all orbital launches supplied

2025 Launches

189

Total orbital launches

Revenue Target

$1B+

Within a few years

Investment

$500M+

Not in $10B backlog

4. Healthcare Gases

Steady Low-to-Mid Single Digit Growth

Hospital care is growing low-to-mid single digits globally. Post-COVID infrastructure investment continues. The home care business (Lincare) is undergoing portfolio rationalization and digitization, positioning it for improved margins and more predictable recurring revenue over time.

Healthcare Growth

Low-Mid SD

Global hospital care

Post-COVID Trend

Investing

Infrastructure buildout continues

Lincare Home Care

Rationalizing

Portfolio optimization + digitization

5. Quantum Computing -- Nascent Opportunity

Proprietary Cryogenic Cooling Technology

Nascent but Linde has proprietary cryogenic cooling technology already supplying pilot programs globally. As quantum computing scales from laboratory to commercial deployment, the demand for ultra-cold environments could become a meaningful revenue stream. Linde is uniquely positioned given its existing cryogenic infrastructure and expertise.

Stage

Nascent

Early-stage opportunity

Technology

Proprietary

Cryogenic cooling systems

Current Status

Pilot Programs

Supplying globally

Score Rationale

9/10 — Exceptional thematic positioning across six reinforcing secular growth vectors. Linde holds the #1 position (~33% share) in the industrial gas triopoly where the top 3 control ~75% of the market, protected by structural barriers including 20-30 year take-or-pay contracts and pipeline-based local monopolies. Two-thirds of the project backlog is clean energy, anchored by the two largest projects in company history (OCI/Woodside blue hydrogen with 45Q CCS), plus a major Saudi Aramco CCS hub. The semiconductor/electronics opportunity (20% of $7B+ backlog) is structural and accelerating as gas intensity rises with each node shrink, with TSMC Phoenix and Samsung Taylor TX as anchor wins. Commercial space (65-75% of all orbital launches) is a toll-road business on track to become a billion-dollar opportunity. Healthcare gases provide steady low-to-mid single digit growth, and proprietary cryogenic technology positions Linde for quantum computing as it scales. The score does not reach 10 because: (1) green hydrogen remains 5-7 years away from economic viability, (2) the healthcare segment is mature with limited upside, and (3) quantum computing is still nascent with no near-term revenue contribution.

Data sourced from Daloopa, earnings transcripts, and company filings.