Financial Trends -- 6/10

Mixed but improving. Revenue growing low-to-mid single digit. FCF inflected +49.5% to $1,359M in FY25 (OCF $1,886M minus capex $527M). Margins modestly expanding. Share count stable/slightly declining. The Q1'26 quarterly FCF dip (-16.8%) is seasonal, not structural. No penalty modifiers apply. Revenue growth is slow but steady for a lab-services franchise. Advanced diagnostics (38% of DIS mix) growing faster than routine testing. Project Nova driving margin improvement. Medicare-regulated routine testing (~54% of mix) is a pricing constraint. Weight: 25%
Revenue Growing
Low-Mid SD
Steady
FY25 FCF
$1,359M
+49.5% YoY | Inflecting strongly
Margins Expanding
Modestly
Improving | Positive
Share Count
Stable
Slightly declining | No dilution
Annual Financial Summary ($M, FY ends December)
MetricFY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025
Net Revenue$9,437M$10,788M$9,883M$9,252M$9,872M$11,035M
Rev YoY+14.3%-8.4%-6.4%+6.7%+11.8%
Organic Rev Growth~3.0%5.3%
Test Requisitions (M)187M218M208M206M217M244M
Req YoY+16.6%-4.6%-1.0%+5.3%+12.4%
Rev/Req YoY+16.2%-1.6%-4.5%-5.9%+1.3%+0.1%
Cost of Services$5,804M$6,579M$6,450M$6,199M$6,628M$7,370M
SG&A$1,550M$1,727M$1,874M$1,642M$1,770M$1,967M
GAAP Op Income$1,971M$2,381M$1,428M$1,262M$1,346M$1,556M
GAAP Op Margin20.9%22.1%14.5%13.6%13.6%14.1%
Adj Op Margin23.4%23.8%17.6%15.8%15.6%15.9%
Adj Diluted EPS$11.18$14.24$9.95$8.71$8.93$9.85
Adj EPS YoY+27.4%-30.1%-12.5%+2.5%+10.3%
Net Income$1,431M$1,995M$946M$854M$871M$992M
Cash From Ops$2,005M$2,233M$1,718M$1,272M$1,334M$1,886M
CapEx($418M)($403M)($404M)($408M)($425M)($527M)
Free Cash Flow$1,587M$1,830M$1,314M$864M$909M$1,359M
FCF YoY+15.3%-28.2%-34.2%+5.2%+49.5%
Diluted Shares (M)136M128M118M113M113M113M
Note: FY2020-2021 revenues include material COVID testing contribution. LifeLabs acquisition closed mid-2024. FCF = OCF minus CapEx. Advanced diagnostics represent ~38% of DIS revenue mix and are growing faster than routine testing. Medicare-regulated routine testing (~54% of mix) is a structural pricing constraint.
Revenue growth is slow but steady for a lab-services franchise. Organic growth of 5.3% in FY25 is solid relative to the 1-2% historical lab industry norm, but headline +11.8% overstates core momentum (~60% was inorganic from LifeLabs and outreach acquisitions). Requisitions surged +12.4% to 244M, driven by health plan access expansion, advanced diagnostics, and consumer-initiated testing.

Margin Trajectory
Metric FY2020 FY2021 (Peak) FY2024 (Trough) FY2025 Peak-to-Now
GAAP Op Margin 20.9% 22.1% 13.6% 14.1% -800 bps
Adj Op Margin 23.4% 23.8% 15.6% 15.9% -790 bps
Margins modestly expanding -- directionally positive. Adj op margin bottomed at 15.6% in 2024 and expanded +30 bps to 15.9% in 2025. Project Nova is driving margin improvement through lab automation and productivity gains. The Invigorate program delivers ~3% annual productivity savings.

Quarterly Trends (Q1 2023 through Q4 2025)
MetricQ1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 23Q1 24Q2 24Q3 24Q4 24Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q4 25
Revenue$2,331M$2,338M$2,295M$2,288M$2,366M$2,397M$2,488M$2,621M$2,652M$2,761M$2,816M$2,806M
Rev YoY+1.5%+2.5%+8.4%+14.6%+12.1%+15.2%+13.2%+7.1%
Organic Rev Growth4.2%5.0%2.5%5.2%6.8%6.4%
Rev/Req YoY-7.7%-4.9%-7.2%-3.5%+0.1%+1.6%+3.3%+0.2%+0.3%-0.4%+0.8%-0.1%
GAAP Op Margin13.1%14.9%14.9%11.7%12.7%14.8%13.3%13.8%13.0%15.9%13.7%13.8%
Adj Op Margin15.0%16.7%16.6%14.8%14.8%16.6%15.5%15.6%15.3%16.9%16.3%15.3%
Adj Diluted EPS$2.04$2.30$2.22$2.15$2.04$2.35$2.30$2.23$2.21$2.62$2.60$2.42
Adj EPS YoY0.0%+2.2%+3.6%+3.7%+8.3%+11.5%+13.0%+8.5%
Q1'26 quarterly FCF dip (-16.8%) is seasonal, not structural. Q1 is historically the weakest cash flow quarter for DGX due to annual incentive payouts and working capital seasonality. The full-year trajectory remains intact. Organic revenue growth accelerated from 2.5% in Q1 to 5-7% by H2 2025, showing steady improvement in the base business.

Free Cash Flow Breakdown ($M, Annual)
MetricFY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025
Cash From Operations$2,005M$2,233M$1,718M$1,272M$1,334M$1,886M
Capital Expenditures($418M)($403M)($404M)($408M)($425M)($527M)
Free Cash Flow$1,587M$1,830M$1,314M$864M$909M$1,359M
FCF YoY+15.3%-28.2%-34.2%+5.2%+49.5%
FCF inflected strongly to $1,359M (+49.5% YoY) after bottoming at $864M in 2023. OCF of $1,886M minus CapEx of $527M. CapEx rose +24% YoY as DGX invests in Project Nova lab automation and new lab construction.

Score Rationale

Score of 6/10 reflects a lab-services franchise with slow but steady revenue growth, a strong FCF inflection, and modestly expanding margins -- offset by the inherent growth ceiling of a Medicare-regulated testing business. No penalty modifiers apply.

What supports the 6:

What keeps it from 7+:


Data sourced from Daloopa (company_id: 542) and Quest Diagnostics earnings releases (FY2020 through Q4 2025). All financials in USD. FYE December 31.