Thematic Exposure -- 8/10

DoorDash + Uber Eats = ~92% of US Food Delivery -- A Textbook Duopoly With Massive Barriers to Entry

This is a textbook duopoly structure. DoorDash holds ~67% of US food delivery by GMV, with Uber Eats at ~25% and Grubhub collapsed to ~6% (acquired by Wonder Group). No new entrant has gained meaningful share in 5+ years.

Barrier structure: Restaurant delivery requires simultaneous three-sided network effects -- consumers, merchants, and dashers -- that are nearly impossible to replicate at scale. The switching costs are reinforced by DashPass (22M+ subscribers), deep merchant integrations, and consumer habit formation.

Geographic nuance: In top-10 MSAs (NYC, LA), DoorDash share is closer to ~50% with near-parity against Uber Eats. But in the long tail of mid-size and smaller cities, DoorDash dominance is even higher than the ~67% national average.

Market size: The US food delivery market is ~$74B+ and still growing mid-teens, driven by the continued shift from phone/walk-in ordering to digital.

Oligopoly gate: PASS. ~67% share in a stable duopoly with three-sided network effects, massive scale advantages, and no credible new entrants.

~67% US Market Share in a ~$74B+ Market Still Growing Mid-Teens

DoorDash is the unambiguous leader in US food delivery, commanding ~60-67% of GMV depending on the source (Earnest Analytics, Second Measure, Bloomberg). The duopoly with Uber Eats (~25%) is stable and structurally advantaged.

Network effects compound: More consumers attract more merchants, which attract more dashers, which improve delivery speed and reliability, which attract more consumers. DoorDash has won this flywheel decisively in the US, particularly in the long tail of mid-size and smaller cities where its dominance exceeds the national average.

Scale economics: At $100B+ annual GOV run-rate, DoorDash benefits from dasher utilization advantages, better delivery routing, and superior merchant selection -- all of which are self-reinforcing at scale.

Assessment: This is the anchor thesis. A ~67% share in a large, growing market with structural barriers is a rare and durable competitive position. Management has gained share every year since 2018.

#1 Third-Party Marketplace by Order Volume in US Grocery/Retail Delivery

DoorDash is now the #1 third-party marketplace by order volume in US grocery and retail delivery as of end-2025 -- a significant milestone in the expansion beyond restaurant delivery.

Key developments: Partnered with 6 of the top 10 food retailers including Kroger (launched 2025). SNAP/EBT payment expansion to 50,000+ stores increases TAM into lower-income households. Convenience delivery (alcohol, pharmacy, pet supplies, flowers) adds incremental order occasions.

Unit economics inflection: Grocery/retail unit economics turned positive in H2 2025 per management commentary on the Q4 earnings call -- a critical proof point for the long-term viability of this vertical.

Assessment: High-quality expansion theme with a large TAM (~$30-40B in 3P grocery/retail delivery). Unit economics are positive but the category is still sub-scale relative to restaurant delivery. Long runway ahead.

International Revenue +144% YoY to $906M in Q4 2025 -- Now ~23% of Total Revenue

International is the fastest-growing segment, surging from $371M in Q4 2024 to $906M in Q4 2025 -- a 144% YoY increase driven by Deliveroo consolidation (acquired May 2025 for ~$3.85B). International now represents ~23% of total revenue versus ~13% a year ago.

Global footprint: DoorDash operates across 45+ countries via Wolt (Northern Europe, Central Europe, Japan) and Deliveroo (UK, France, Italy, Hong Kong, and others). Management stated international markets are "growing faster than peers and gaining market share in nearly every country of operation."

Platform consolidation underway: Merging Wolt and Deliveroo onto a single global technology platform -- a multi-year effort with potential for significant cost synergies.

Assessment: High-growth vector with a credible path to making DoorDash the global #2 or #3 in food delivery (behind only Meituan). However, Deliveroo carries ~$200M annual EBITDA drag, and local competitors (Just Eat Takeaway, Delivery Hero) remain strong in many markets. Execution risk is real.

DoorDash Ads Surpassed $1B+ Annual Revenue Run Rate -- ~8% of Revenue and Doubling YoY

Advertising is the highest-margin growth vector in the DoorDash portfolio. The ads platform surpassed $1 billion annual revenue run rate -- roughly ~8% of total revenue and growing rapidly (doubled YoY).

Expanding capabilities: Acquired ad-tech startup Symbiosys for $175M in mid-2025 to extend advertising capabilities off-platform (search bidding, co-branded retail campaigns). Advertiser base is expanding beyond restaurants into CPG brands, grocery, and retail.

Massive runway: Instacart generates ~30% of revenue from advertising; DoorDash at ~8% has significant room to expand. Advertising carries ~70-80% incremental margins, making this the most powerful lever for long-term margin expansion.

Assessment: Proven high-margin overlay business that leverages existing order volume. The gap between DoorDash at ~8% and Instacart at ~30% of revenue from ads highlights the long runway. This is a structural margin tailwind.

22M+ Subscribers, ~52% of MAUs -- Higher Penetration Than Uber One (7%) or Instacart+ (9%)

DashPass is a structural competitive moat. With 22M+ subscribers and 12% of US adults enrolled, DashPass penetration significantly exceeds Uber One (7%) and Instacart+ (9%).

Behavioral flywheel: DashPass members order ~2-3x more frequently than non-members. The subscription creates switching costs and recurring engagement that compound over time -- members who stay longer order even more, reinforcing the economics.

Expanding scope: Management is focused on evolving DashPass into a broader local commerce membership encompassing grocery, retail, and convenience -- not just restaurant delivery. This broadens the value proposition and further entrenches the subscription.

Assessment: DashPass is an underappreciated asset. The combination of high penetration, frequency uplift, and switching cost creation makes this a durable competitive advantage that is difficult for competitors to replicate.

International execution risk: Deliveroo acquisition (~$3.85B) carries ~$200M annual EBITDA drag as investments are made in product, selection, and integration. Merging Wolt and Deliveroo onto a single platform is a multi-year effort. Local competitors (Just Eat Takeaway, Delivery Hero, Meituan in Asia) remain entrenched in many markets.

Grocery/retail unit economics still nascent: While unit economics turned positive in H2 2025, the category is still sub-scale versus restaurant delivery. Grocery baskets are larger but margins are thinner, and the competitive landscape includes Instacart, Amazon Fresh, and Walmart -- well-capitalized incumbents.

Regulatory and labor risk: Gig economy regulation remains an overhang. Minimum pay laws (NYC, Seattle, Minneapolis) and potential federal action could pressure dasher economics. Prop 22 in California was upheld but similar battles could emerge in other states.

Uber Eats remains a formidable #2: Uber benefits from ride-hail cross-sell, global scale, and Uber One membership. In top-10 MSAs, Uber Eats is near-parity with DoorDash. A rational duopoly is stable, but any irrational price war would pressure margins.

Stock down ~45% from 52-week highs: The market is pricing in execution risk on international integration and the investment cycle. Valuation multiple compression reflects skepticism about the timeline to profitability on newer initiatives.