CAT -- Q1 2026 Earnings Preview
Caterpillar Inc. | Reports April 30, 2026 at 5:30 a.m. CDT |
Call 7:30 a.m. CDT / 8:30 a.m. ET |
Prepared April 28, 2026
Earnings Date
Apr 30
5:30 a.m. CDT release; call 8:30 a.m. ET
Q4 Revenue
$19.1B
Up +18.0% YoY; Daloopa linked below
Record Backlog
$51.2B
+70.7% YoY at Q4 2025
Q1 Tariff Cost
~$800M
Guided similar to Q4 2025 run-rate
FY2025 Sales
$67.6B
Record year; +4% YoY per company
Adj. EPS Trend
$5.16
Q4 2025; fifth straight sequential EPS rise since Q1
Power Gen
$3.2B
Q4 2025 application sales; +44.4% YoY
Beat Record
5 / 8
Last eight quarters; recent two both beats
Executive Summary
CAT enters Q1 with unusually strong forward indicators but a less clean earnings setup. The bull case is trajectory:
backlog is up 71% YoY, Power & Energy has multi-year order visibility tied to data center power and gas compression,
and Construction/Resource Industries orders improved exiting 2025. The bear case is also trajectory: adjusted operating
margin fell from 22.2% in Q1 2024 to 15.6% in Q4 2025 as tariffs hit manufacturing cost, and Q1 tariff costs are guided
around $800M. The print should be judged less on absolute EPS and more on backlog conversion, Power & Energy capacity
timing, dealer inventory normalization, and whether the tariff bridge still supports the full-year margin framework.
Guidance & Estimates
| Metric | Guide / Setup | Reference Point | What Matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 total sales | Not explicitly guided | Growth YoY implied by segment color | Management guides annual sales around the top of its 5%-7% CAGR target; Q1 dealer inventory tailwind vs. flattish Q1 2025. |
| Q1 adjusted operating margin | Lower YoY including tariffs | Higher YoY excluding tariffs | Guided margin lower than Q1 2025 after roughly $800M tariff cost; ex-tariffs, higher margin expected. |
| Q1 tariff cost | ~$800M | Similar to Q4 2025 | Approx. 50% CI, 20% RI, 30% Power & Energy per Q4 call / 10-K disclosure. |
| FY2026 sales | Around top of 5%-7% CAGR | ~7% framework | Supported by backlog and healthy end markets, with Power & Energy strongest growth rate. |
| FY2026 margin | Top half ex-tariffs | Near bottom incl. tariffs | The Q1 call should test whether mitigation still makes this credible. |
| FY2026 ME&T FCF | Slightly lower than 2025 | FY2025 was $9.5B | Lower due to higher capex for capacity expansion. |
Daloopa document search beta: CAT Q4 2025 transcript / 2025 10-K snippets; official timing from Caterpillar IR Apr 16, 2026.
Read-through: Management does not give a clean quarterly EPS guide. The most useful comparison is the
Q1 2025 baseline: sales and revenues $14.2B and adjusted EPS
$4.25. If Q1 2026 shows strong revenue growth but margin still steps down after tariffs,
the debate shifts to whether backlog conversion can outrun tariff drag through 2026.
Key Metrics: 8-Quarter Trajectory
| Metric | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales & revenues | $15.8B | $16.7B | $16.1B | $16.2B | $14.2B | $16.6B | $17.6B | $19.1B |
| YoY growth | -0.4% | -3.6% | -4.2% | -5.0% | -9.8% | -0.7% | +9.5% | +18.0% |
| Adjusted EPS | $5.60 | $5.99 | $5.17 | $5.14 | $4.25 | $4.72 | $4.95 | $5.16 |
| EPS YoY | +14.5% | +1.2% | -4.8% | -5.3% | -24.1% | -21.2% | -4.3% | +0.4% |
| Adjusted operating profit | $3.5B | $3.7B | $3.2B | $3.0B | $2.6B | $2.9B | $3.1B | $3.0B |
| Adjusted OP margin | 22.2% | 22.4% | 20.0% | 18.3% | 18.3% | 17.6% | 17.5% | 15.6% |
| Order backlog | $27.9B | $28.6B | $28.7B | $30.0B | $35.0B | $37.5B | $39.8B | $51.2B |
| Backlog YoY | +3.7% | -1.7% | -6.2% | +9.1% | +25.4% | +31.1% | +38.7% | +70.7% |
Daloopa company_id 313. Quarterly sales, adjusted EPS, adjusted operating profit, adjusted operating margin, and backlog.
Trajectory: the top-line and backlog slope improved sharply in H2 2025, but margin did not.
Sales growth moved from -9.8% YoY in Q1 2025 to +18.0% in Q4 2025, while backlog rose from
$35.0B in Q1 2025 to $51.2B in Q4 2025.
Adjusted operating margin moved the other direction, falling to 15.6%
in Q4 2025. That divergence is the core of the preview.
Segment Setup
| Metric | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction Industries revenue | $6.4B | $6.7B | $6.3B | $6.0B | $5.1B | $6.1B | $6.7B | $6.8B |
| Resource Industries revenue (recast) | $3.9B | $3.9B | $3.7B | $3.8B | $3.6B | $3.8B | $3.9B | $4.3B |
| Power & Energy revenue (recast) | $4.7B | $5.3B | $5.2B | $5.6B | $4.7B | $5.8B | $6.2B | $7.1B |
| Power generation application sales | $1.6B | $1.9B | $2.0B | $2.2B | $2.0B | $2.4B | $2.6B | $3.2B |
| Oil & gas application sales | $1.6B | $1.8B | $1.7B | $1.9B | $1.3B | $1.9B | $2.0B | $2.4B |
Daloopa company_id 313. Resource Industries and Power & Energy use latest recast-compatible quarterly datapoints where available; legacy Daloopa labels may still show Energy & Transportation.
What matters: Power & Energy remains the center of gravity, but Q1 is seasonally the lowest quarter and
growth is constrained by capacity. The cleanest bull signal would be a backlog/order update that extends multi-year
visibility without increasing cancellation or pricing risk. For CI and RI, the question is whether improved orders
translate into sales-to-users rather than simply dealer inventory.
Setup & Tone
| Topic | Read | Evidence / Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Management tone | Constructive | Q4 call emphasized strong orders across all three primary segments and confidence in managing tariffs over time. |
| Primary bull signal | Backlog conversion | Q4 backlog of $51.2B was +71% YoY; roughly 62% expected within 12 months per transcript snippets. |
| Primary risk | Tariff margin drag | Q1 cost around $800M; FY2026 around $2.6B before planned mitigation actions. |
| Street setup | High expectations | The prior draft included consensus estimates, but they were not refreshed from Bloomberg/Visible Alpha in this worker scope; page avoids fabricated current market data. |
| Management transition | Joe Creed year one | Q1 is another test of execution under the new CEO after the May 2025 transition. |
Daloopa document search beta: CAT Q4 2025 transcript snippets. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Catalysts
| Catalyst | Upside Signal | Risk / Miss Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Backlog quality and conversion | Bullish if backlog rises from $51.2B and next-12-month deliverable backlog stays strong. | If backlog grows but delivery timing stretches, near-term revenue upside may be capped. |
| Power & Energy capacity | Bullish if management raises confidence in late-2026/2027 capacity step-ups. | Capacity constraints can make order growth look better than sales growth. |
| Tariff cost and mitigation | Q1 tariff cost guided around $800M, with full-year 2026 around $2.6B. | The key is whether price/cost/sourcing actions protect the margin framework. |
| Construction Industries retail demand | Dealer inventory should return to a more normal seasonal build after flattish Q1 2025. | A weak sales-to-users read would undermine the dealer inventory tailwind. |
| Resource Industries orders | Copper/mining demand and autonomous truck adoption remain positives. | Coal weakness and customer capex discipline are the offsetting risks. |
News Flow
| Date | Event | Detail | Preview Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | Q4 2025 / FY2025 results | Record FY2025 sales and revenues of $67.6B; Q4 revenue +18% YoY; backlog reached $51.2B. | Sets a high bar: the stock narrative is now about duration of orders, not whether demand exists. |
| Jan 2026 | AIP / Monarch Campus order | Large reciprocating gas generator order expected to enter Q1 2026 backlog and deliver from late 2026 through 2027. | Q1 backlog should show whether AI power demand keeps converting into firm orders. |
| Mar 2026 | Segment recast effective | Rail moves from Power & Energy into Resource Industries; current-quarter segment comparisons need recast discipline. | A reported segment surprise can be accounting-mix noise unless compared on the right basis. |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Official earnings date announced | CAT will release Q1 results at 5:30 a.m. CDT on Apr 30, with the call at 7:30 a.m. CDT / 8:30 a.m. ET. | This replaces the stale Apr 23 date in the prior draft. |
Caterpillar IR Apr 16, 2026 for earnings timing; Daloopa document search beta for Q4 call/10-K context; prior CAT draft for AIP/news watch items where not independently refreshed.
Beat / Miss Record
| Quarter | Consensus EPS | Actual EPS | Surprise | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2024 | $5.12 | $5.60 | +9.4% | BEAT |
| Q2 2024 | $5.53 | $5.99 | +8.3% | BEAT |
| Q3 2024 | $5.33 | $5.17 | -3.0% | MISS |
| Q4 2024 | $4.97 | $5.14 | +3.4% | BEAT |
| Q1 2025 | $4.30 | $4.25 | -1.2% | MISS |
| Q2 2025 | $4.88 | $4.72 | -3.3% | MISS |
| Q3 2025 | $4.52 | $4.95 | +9.5% | BEAT |
| Q4 2025 | $4.67 | $5.16 | +10.5% | BEAT |
Historical consensus from stale March CAT draft / Zacks; actual EPS linked in key metrics from Daloopa. Consensus was not refreshed in this worker scope.
Bottom Line
The right Q1 2026 framework is "demand visibility vs. tariff digestion." A simple EPS beat is not enough if it comes
with worse tariff language or weaker order quality. Conversely, a messy margin quarter can still work if backlog grows,
Power & Energy capacity timing improves, and management confirms the full-year margin bridge. The key underwrite is
whether CAT is becoming a structurally longer-cycle Power & Energy compounder while CI/RI stabilize, or whether the
market is capitalizing a temporary order surge at peak margins that tariffs have already reset lower.
Data sourced from Daloopa. Official earnings timing sourced from Caterpillar Investor Relations.