Financial Trends -- 5/10
BUD presents a mixed financial picture: EBITDA margins are expanding to 5-year highs (35.8%)
and underlying EPS continues to compound (+5.7% in 2025), supported by accelerating buybacks
($2.3B). However, reported revenue contracted for the first time since COVID (-0.7% in 2025)
and total volumes have declined for three consecutive years, worsening to -2.3% in 2025.
North America volumes are down 22% cumulatively since 2020, and China is deteriorating.
The premiumization strategy is working on margins but not offsetting volume erosion on the top line.
Weight: 25%
2025 Revenue
$59,320M
-0.7% YoY | first decline since COVID
2025 Underlying EPS
$3.73
+5.7% YoY | aided by buybacks
2025 EBITDA Margin
35.8%
+70bps YoY | 5-year high
2025 Total Volume
561M hls
-2.3% organic | near COVID-trough
Revenue Trajectory (Annual, USD M)
Revenue decelerating for 5 consecutive years, turning negative in 2025.
Revenue growth slowed from +15.8% (2021) to +6.4% to +2.8% to +0.7% to -0.7% (2025) -- five
consecutive years of deceleration with 2025 marking the first contraction since COVID. Revenue
per hectoliter grew +4.4% in 2025 but was more than offset by volume declines. Organic revenue
(ex-FX) grew ~+2%, modestly better than the headline number. Consensus expects a return to
low-single-digit growth in 2026-2027, aided by FIFA World Cup tailwinds and premiumization.
| Metric | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $46,881M | $54,304M | $57,786M | $59,380M | $59,768M | $59,320M |
| YoY Growth | — | 15.8% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 0.7% | -0.7% |
2026E ~$60.5B, 2027E ~$62B consensus. Organic revenue growth ~+2% in 2025 (ex-FX). Data sourced from Daloopa.
Normalized EBITDA and Margin (Annual)
EBITDA margins expanding to highest level since 2020, driven by premiumization.
EBITDA margin recovered from a 33.6% trough (2023) to 35.8% (2025), expanding in 4 of 5 regions.
Middle Americas leads at 50.0% margin. North America margin is recovering (33.0% vs 31.4% trough)
but remains structurally below the pre-crisis 39.5% level. EBITDA dollar growth decelerated to just
+1.3% in 2025 despite the margin expansion, reflecting the volume drag on revenues. Management
guides 4-8% organic EBITDA growth for 2026.
| Metric | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA ($M) | $17,321M | $19,209M | $19,843M | $19,976M | $20,958M | $21,223M |
| YoY Growth | — | 10.9% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 4.9% | 1.3% |
| EBITDA Margin | 36.9% | 35.4% | 34.3% | 33.6% | 35.1% | 35.8% |
2026 organic EBITDA growth guidance: 4-8%. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Quarterly Normalized EBITDA ($M)
Quarterly EBITDA showed sequential improvement through 2025.
After Q1 2025 declined -2.6% YoY and Q2 was flat, the trajectory improved to +3.1% in Q3 and
+4.3% in Q4 2025. This sequential improvement aligns with management guidance for 4-8% organic
EBITDA growth in 2026. Seasonal pattern shows Q3 (summer) as the strongest quarter and Q1 as
the weakest, consistent with beer consumption seasonality.
Quarterly EBITDA normalized. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Total Volume Trajectory (Annual, M hls)
Three consecutive years of volume decline, worsening to -2.3% in 2025.
Total volumes of 561M hls are approaching COVID-trough levels (531M in 2020). Organic volume
growth has been negative for three straight years: -1.7% (2023), -1.4% (2024), -2.3% (2025).
North America volumes are down 22% since 2020 (107M to 83M hls) driven by the Bud Light boycott
aftermath. Asia Pacific volumes fell from 93M (2023) to 79M (2025) on China weakness. Only Middle
Americas has held volume at 150M hls. Q4 2025 showed some narrowing of declines (-1.5% organic).
| Metric | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume (M hls) | 531 | 582 | 595 | 585 | 576 | 561 |
| Organic Growth | -5.7% | 9.6% | 2.3% | -1.7% | -1.4% | -2.3% |
Volume in millions of hectoliters. Organic growth excludes FX and scope. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Underlying EPS Trajectory
EPS is the key bright spot -- compounding at 6.7% CAGR since 2021.
Underlying EPS grew from $3.05 (2023) to $3.53 (2024, +15.7%) to $3.73 (2025, +5.7%).
Growth is decelerating but still positive and compounding. Diluted EPS grew +18.5% in 2025
($3.39 vs $2.86). Share buybacks accelerating from $362M (2023) to $937M (2024) to $2,301M
(2025) under a $6B program are a meaningful EPS tailwind. Quarterly EPS has been positive YoY
every quarter since Q1 2024, with Q2 2024 showing +25.0% growth. Consensus points to ~$3.95
(2026E) and ~$4.25 (2027E).
| Metric | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normalized/Underlying EPS | $1.9 | $2.9 | $3.2 | $3.0 | $3.5 | $3.7 |
| Underlying EPS YoY | — | — | — | — | 15.7% | 5.7% |
| Diluted EPS | — | — | — | — | $2.9 | $3.4 |
| Buybacks ($M) | — | — | — | $362M | $937M | $2,301M |
2020-2022 use Normalized EPS; 2023-2025 use Underlying EPS. 2026E ~$3.95, 2027E ~$4.25. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Regional Revenue Breakdown (Annual, USD M)
Middle Americas is the growth engine; North America and Asia Pacific are declining.
Middle Americas grew at an 11.6% 5-year CAGR to $17.4B, now the largest region (29% of revenue).
North America declined at -1.9% CAGR from $15.6B to $14.2B, reflecting the Bud Light boycott
aftermath and structural volume erosion. Asia Pacific (primarily China) slowed to a 0.2% CAGR
with revenue declining from $6.8B (2023) to $5.7B (2025). EMEA grew at a solid 6.8% CAGR.
South America grew at 8.1% CAGR but faces consumer pressure in Brazil.
| Metric | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 5yr CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | $15,622M | $16,257M | $16,566M | $15,072M | $14,655M | $14,207M | -1.9% |
| Middle Americas | $10,032M | $12,541M | $14,180M | $16,348M | $17,072M | $17,376M | +11.6% |
| South America | $8,092M | $9,494M | $11,599M | $12,040M | $12,423M | $11,954M | +8.1% |
| EMEA | $6,835M | $8,032M | $8,120M | $8,589M | $9,003M | $9,502M | +6.8% |
| Asia Pacific | $5,648M | $6,848M | $6,532M | $6,824M | $6,196M | $5,693M | +0.2% |
Regional revenue in USD millions. 5yr CAGR = 2020-2025. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Regional EBITDA Margins (%)
Margins expanding in 4 of 5 regions; Middle Americas at 50% is a standout.
Middle Americas EBITDA margin returned to 50.0% in 2025 -- the highest of any region and a testament
to pricing power in Mexico and Colombia. EMEA margin expanded +100bps to 32.6%. North America margin
is recovering slowly from 31.4% (2023 trough) to 33.0% but remains 650bps below the pre-crisis 39.5%
level. Asia Pacific is the sole margin headwind at 29.9% (-130bps), reflecting China deterioration.
South America margins are stable at 32.6%.
| Metric | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 39.5% | 37.7% | 36.6% | 31.4% | 32.7% | 33.0% |
| Middle Americas | 50.0% | 48.8% | 46.3% | 47.2% | 49.2% | 50.0% |
| South America | 39.3% | 32.9% | 30.3% | 32.3% | 32.6% | 32.6% |
| EMEA | 27.7% | 32.4% | 32.2% | 29.9% | 31.6% | 32.6% |
| Asia Pacific | 30.8% | 33.9% | 32.2% | 32.0% | 31.2% | 29.9% |
| Worldwide | 36.9% | 35.4% | 34.3% | 33.6% | 35.1% | 35.8% |
Regional EBITDA margins. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Capital Allocation: Buybacks and Leverage
Capital allocation improving: buybacks accelerating, leverage declining.
Share buybacks ramped from $362M (2023) to $937M (2024) to $2,301M (2025), with a $6B program
announced over 24 months in Q3 2025. Leverage reached 2.87x net debt/EBITDA, down from higher
levels, with no bonds maturing in 2026 and a 13-year average maturity. Dividend increased 15% YoY
with introduction of an interim dividend. FCF generation improved $0.5B YoY in H1 2025. The shift
from pure deleveraging to shareholder returns is a positive inflection in the capital allocation story.
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Share Buybacks ($M) | $362M | $937M | $2,301M |
$6B buyback program over 24 months announced Q3 2025. Leverage: 2.87x net debt/EBITDA. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Acceleration / Deceleration Analysis
| Signal | Detail | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +15.8% (2021) to -0.7% (2025); 5 consecutive years of deceleration, now contracting | Contracting |
| EBITDA Growth | +10.9% (2021) to +1.3% (2025); stable but decelerating; quarterly improving Q3-Q4 | Stable / Decelerating |
| Total Volumes | -1.7% (2023) to -2.3% (2025); 3 consecutive years of decline, worsening | Worsening |
| Underlying EPS | $3.05 to $3.53 to $3.73; +5.7% in 2025, decelerating but still compounding | Growing (decelerating) |
| EBITDA Margin | 33.6% trough (2023) to 35.8% (2025); +70bps in 2025, 4 of 5 regions expanding | Expanding |
| North America Volumes | 107M hls (2020) to 83M (2025); -22% cumulative, -3.5% in 2025 | Structural Decline |
| China / APAC | Revenue -15% in Q3 2025; volumes -6% FY; acknowledged underperformance | Deteriorating |
| Buybacks / Capital Return | $362M to $2,301M over 3 years; $6B program; leverage at 2.87x | Accelerating |
Score Derivation
| Factor | Assessment | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Base Score | Global market leader with diversified footprint; EBITDA margins expanding; EPS compounding | 6.0 |
| Revenue declining (reported) | 2025 revenue -0.7% YoY; first contraction since COVID | -0.5 |
| Persistent volume declines | 3 consecutive years: -1.7%, -1.4%, -2.3%; approaching COVID-trough levels | -1.0 |
| China deterioration | Revenue -15% in Q3 2025; volumes -6% FY; acknowledged execution gaps | -0.5 |
| North America structural erosion | 22% cumulative volume decline since 2020; revenue -9% from peak | -0.5 |
| EPS still compounding | Underlying EPS +5.7% in 2025; 6.7% CAGR since 2021 | +0.5 |
| Margin expansion resuming | +70bps in 2025 to 35.8%; 4 of 5 regions expanding | +0.5 |
| Accelerating buyback / deleveraging | $6B buyback program; leverage at 2.87x; dividend +15% | +0.5 |
| Q4 sequential improvement | Vol organic improved to -1.5%; EBITDA +4.3% YoY in Q4 2025 | +0.5 |
| Net Adjustment | -0.5 - 1.0 - 0.5 - 0.5 + 0.5 + 0.5 + 0.5 + 0.5 = -1.0 | -1.0 |
| Final Score | Base 6.0 minus 1.0 net adjustment | 5/10 |
Data sourced from Daloopa and BUD earnings transcripts (FY2024, FY2025). Calendar fiscal year, reports in USD.