Financial Trends -- 6/10
Margin-and-cash-flow improvement story on a flat-to-declining reported top line. Normalized
EBITDA margin expanded ~230bps off 2023 trough. Underlying EPS compounding ~+6%. FCF stepped up
sharply in 2024 and held. Share count slowly shrinking, gross debt coming down. But total volumes
declined every quarter YoY (-2% to -4%) -- 100% of organic revenue growth is price/mix, not units.
Weight: 25%
FY2025 Revenue
Flat
Organic +6% | Price/mix driven
EBITDA Margin
+230bps
Off 2023 trough | Expanding
Volume YoY
-2 to -4%
8 straight quarters negative | Structural headwind
Underlying EPS
+6%
Compounding | Capital allocation helping
Quarterly Financial Summary
Reported revenue noisy due to FX; organic growth positive every quarter but volumes negative for 8 straight.
Reported YoY zig-zags from +2.3% to -6.3% to +4.8% are FX/hyperinflation translation, not
underlying demand. Organic revenue contribution was positive every quarter but decelerated in
1H25 before re-firming into Q4. The entire top line is carried by price/mix and premiumization
while total volumes declined every quarter (-0.7% to -3.9%). EBITDA margins expanded YoY in 7
of 8 comparable quarters, with only Q4 2025 showing slight compression (-16bps).
| Quarter | Revenue | Rev YoY | Vol YoY | Gross Mgn | EBITDA Mgn | Underlying EPS | uEPS YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | $14,213M | — | — | 54.1% | 33.5% | $0.65 | — |
| 2023Q2 | $15,120M | — | — | 53.6% | 32.5% | $0.72 | — |
| 2023Q3 | $15,574M | — | — | 53.9% | 34.9% | $0.86 | — |
| 2023Q4 | $14,473M | — | — | 53.9% | 33.7% | $0.82 | — |
| 2024Q1 | $14,547M | +2.3% | -0.7% | 54.3% | 34.3% | $0.75 | +15.4% |
| 2024Q2 | $15,333M | +1.4% | -0.9% | 55.9% | 34.6% | $0.90 | +25.0% |
| 2024Q3 | $15,046M | -3.4% | -2.5% | 55.6% | 36.0% | $0.98 | +14.0% |
| 2024Q4 | $14,841M | +2.5% | -2.0% | 55.2% | 35.3% | $0.88 | +7.3% |
| 2025Q1 | $13,628M | -6.3% | -2.3% | 55.6% | 35.6% | $0.81 | +8.0% |
| 2025Q2 | $15,004M | -2.1% | -2.0% | 56.3% | 35.3% | $0.98 | +8.9% |
| 2025Q3 | $15,133M | +0.6% | -3.9% | 56.4% | 37.0% | $0.99 | +1.0% |
| 2025Q4 | $15,555M | +4.8% | -1.9% | 55.4% | 35.2% | $0.95 | +8.0% |
Quarterly data from Daloopa (company_id 52567, ABI:BB). Revenue in USD millions. EBITDA margin = Normalized EBITDA / Revenue. FYE December 31.
Annual Financial Summary (FY2021--FY2025)
Margins expanding and FCF stepping up despite flat-to-declining reported revenue.
Revenue peaked at $59,768M in 2024 and dipped -0.7% in 2025 (FX translation; organic growth
was mid-single-digit). EBITDA margin expanded from the 33.6% trough in 2023 to 35.8% in 2025.
FCF jumped +30% in 2024 ($8.6B to $11.2B) and held in 2025. Underlying EPS compounded at
a 6.7% CAGR from 2021 to 2025, supported by accelerating buybacks and a declining share count.
Gross debt fell from ~$80B to ~$73B over three years.
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $54,304 | $57,786 | $59,380 | $59,768 | $59,320 |
| Rev YoY | — | +6.4% | +2.8% | +0.7% | -0.7% |
| Volume (k hls) | 581,678 | 595,133 | 584,728 | 575,706 | 561,100 |
| Gross Margin | 57.5% | 54.5% | 53.9% | 55.3% | 55.9% |
| EBITDA Margin (Norm) | 35.4% | 34.3% | 33.6% | 35.1% | 35.8% |
| EBIT Margin (Norm) | 26.6% | 25.6% | 24.6% | 25.9% | 26.7% |
| Underlying EPS | $2.88 | $3.03 | $3.05 | $3.53 | $3.73 |
| FCF ($M) | $9,159 | $8,138 | $8,627 | $11,192 | $11,227 |
| FCF Margin | 16.9% | 14.1% | 14.5% | 18.7% | 18.9% |
| Wtd Avg Shares (M) | 2,007 | 2,013 | 2,016 | 2,003 | 1,984 |
| Gross IB Debt ($M) | — | $79,909 | $78,150 | $72,169 | $73,013 |
Annual data from Daloopa (company_id 52567). FCF = Operating cash flow minus capex. FYE December 31. Revenue in USD millions.
Acceleration / Deceleration Analysis
| Signal | Detail | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | Reported: +6.4% (2022) to -0.7% (2025); organic mid-single-digit but decelerated in 1H25 | Flat / Contracting |
| Total Volumes | -0.7% to -3.9% over 8 quarters; 3 consecutive years of decline, worsening | Worsening |
| EBITDA Margin | 33.6% trough (2023) to 35.8% (2025); +230bps, expansion in 7 of 8 comparable quarters | Expanding |
| Underlying EPS | $2.88 (2021) to $3.73 (2025); 6.7% CAGR; positive YoY every quarter since Q1 2024 | Compounding |
| Free Cash Flow | $8.6B (2023) to $11.2B (2024-25); +30% step-up then held; FCF margin ~19% | Stepped Up |
| Share Count | 2,016M (2023) to 1,984M (2025); -1.6% off peak, accelerating buybacks ($6B program) | Declining |
| Gross Debt | ~$80B (2022) to ~$73B (2025); net debt/EBITDA 2.87x | Deleveraging |
Score Derivation
| Factor | Assessment | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Margin expansion | EBITDA margin +230bps off 2023 trough to 35.8%; expansion in 4 of 5 regions | Positive |
| EPS compounding | Underlying EPS +5.7% in 2025; 6.7% CAGR since 2021; aided by buybacks | Positive |
| FCF generation | $11.2B FCF, ~19% margin; positive and growing over 5 years | Positive |
| Volume decline | 8 consecutive quarters of negative YoY volume (-0.7% to -3.9%); structural | Negative |
| Revenue stagnation | Reported revenue -0.7% in 2025; 100% of organic growth is price/mix, not units | Negative |
| Penalty modifiers | None apply: FCF positive/growing, share count declining, operating income rising, debt falling | None |
| Final Score | Strong profitability and cash generation, offset by stagnant top line and persistent volume declines | 6/10 |
Data sourced from Daloopa (company_id 52567, ABI:BB). FYE December 31. All figures in USD millions unless noted.