Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV -- 5.9/10 -- $71.30

Gate result: One PARTIAL (management volume delivery). Score normally but note the gap. Doukeris has executed well on EBITDA, premiumization, and capital returns, but the persistent volume declines (-2.3% organic in FY2025) and China underperformance are genuine misses. The strategic pivot around Bud Light was shrewd but North America volumes remain negative.

Anheuser-Busch InBev is the largest brewer in the world by volume, producing approximately 561 million hectoliters in FY2025 across five operating regions: North America, Middle Americas (Mexico, Colombia), South America (Brazil), EMEA (Europe, Africa), and Asia Pacific (China, South Korea). The company trades as an ADR on the NYSE (BUD) with primary listing on Euronext Brussels (ABI). Headquartered in Leuven, Belgium, with a calendar fiscal year.

The investment case rests on three pillars: (1) Premiumization -- mega brands (Corona, Michelob Ultra, Stella Artois) represent 57% of revenue and grew at a 10% CAGR since 2021. Corona has doubled volumes since 2018 and is the most valuable beer brand globally. Revenue per hectoliter grew +4.4% in FY2025 despite volume headwinds. (2) Emerging market exposure -- approximately 70% of EBITDA comes from emerging and developing markets, which are projected to account for over 80% of beer category volume growth through 2029. Middle Americas is the standout region with 50% EBITDA margins and stable volumes. (3) Digital ecosystem -- BEES captured $53B in GMV (+12% YoY) with the Marketplace reaching $3.5B (+61%), creating a platform that addresses the ~60-66% of retailer purchases that are non-beer.

The concerns are volume and geographic concentration of risk. Total volumes have declined for three consecutive years (-1.7%, -1.4%, -2.3%), approaching COVID-trough levels of 531mn hls. North America volumes are down 22% cumulatively since 2020 following the Bud Light boycott -- management has pivoted to growing Michelob Ultra and Busch Light around the hole, but absolute NA volumes keep shrinking. China is in clear deterioration with revenue down low-teens in FY2025 and acknowledged execution gaps. Reported revenue contracted -0.7% in FY2025, the first decline since COVID, though organic revenue (ex-FX) was modestly positive at ~+2%.

BUD receives a composite score of 5.9/10, reflecting strong thematic positioning (7) and solid management execution (7), offset by mixed financial trends (5), crowded sentiment (4), and a balanced risk profile (6). The oligopoly gate passes convincingly and FCF is improving, but management has not yet delivered on the volume growth aspiration.

Bull case (~$85-95, +19-33%): FIFA World Cup 2026 in the Americas drives meaningful volume uplift (historically 20-25bps). Premiumization continues compounding -- mega brands growing at 10% CAGR. BEES Marketplace inflects toward monetization. China stabilizes post inventory reset. Buyback program ($6B over 24 months) accelerates EPS growth. Stock re-rates toward 18-20x forward P/E on improving organic growth trajectory.

Base case (~$70-80, flat to +12%): Organic EBITDA grows 4-8% per guidance. Volume declines narrow but do not turn positive. EPS compounds mid-to-high single digits aided by buybacks. North America stabilizes with Michelob Ultra and Beyond Beer offsetting continued Bud Light erosion. Stock trades range-bound as investors wait for volume inflection evidence.

Bear case (~$50-60, -15-30%): Volume declines accelerate as consumer weakness spreads from China to Brazil and Mexico. Bud Light share loss proves fully permanent. Tariff escalation impacts EM currencies and compresses dollar-reported results. GLP-1 adoption accelerates moderation trends. Revenue decline deepens beyond -1%. Stock de-rates toward 13-14x forward P/E.

Bottom line: BUD is a high-quality franchise with unmatched global scale, executing a credible premiumization and margin expansion playbook. EPS continues to compound and capital allocation is improving. However, persistent volume declines, a structurally impaired US business, and China weakness prevent a higher score. The stock is reasonably valued at ~16x forward earnings but consensus is crowded bullish with limited contrarian setup. HOLD / Watchlist, and monitor for volume inflection -- that would be the catalyst to upgrade.

Key catalysts and monitoring points:

• Q1 2026 earnings (~May 2026): Watch organic volume trends -- any quarter of positive volume growth would be a significant inflection signal. Monitor China specifically for whether Q4 2025 share stabilization extends into sustained recovery.
• FIFA World Cup (June-July 2026): Hosted in the Americas (US, Mexico, Canada). Historically drives 20-25bps volume uplift. As the global beer sponsor, BUD is uniquely positioned. Pre-event marketing activation should be visible in Q2 2026 results.
• North America volume trajectory: FY2025 was -3.5%. Michelob Ultra (#1 US volume brand) and Busch Light (#2 share gainer) are growing but not yet offsetting total NA decline. Beyond Beer (Cutwater up triple digits) is the wildcard.
• China route-to-market restructuring: Management is shifting toward off-trade and O2O channels after acknowledging underperformance vs. industry. Revenue was down low-teens in FY25. Q4 share trend stabilized to flat -- watch for follow-through.
• BEES Marketplace monetization: GMV reached $3.5B (+61%). The transition from 1P to higher-margin 3P is the key profitability lever. Management sees 1.5-2x addressable revenue beyond beer -- any concrete margin contribution data would be a positive catalyst.
• Buyback execution: $6B program over 24 months announced Q3 2025, with $2.3B executed in FY2025. Pace of execution in 2026 will signal management confidence in cash generation.
• Tariff and FX risk: ~70% of EBITDA from EM. Brazilian real and Mexican peso weakness could compress dollar-reported results even if organic trends improve. US tariff policy on aluminum/steel impacts packaging costs.

For the full analysis, see the Financials, Thematics, and Management pages.