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AMAT
Applied Materials
Earnings
> FY2026Q2 Review
AMAT | Earnings Review
| Metric | FY24Q2 | FY24Q3 | FY24Q4 | FY25Q1 | FY25Q2 | FY25Q3 | FY25Q4 | FY26Q1 | FY26Q2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M, calc) | $6.6B | $6.8B | $7.0B | $7.2B | $7.1B | $7.3B | $6.8B | $7.0B | $7.9B |
| Revenue ($M, calc) YoY % | - | - | - | - | +6.9% | +7.9% | -3.3% | -2.0% | +11.4% |
| Non-GAAP gross margin | 47.5% | 47.4% | 47.5% | 48.9% | 49.2% | 48.9% | 48.1% | 49.1% | 50.0% |
| Non-GAAP operating income ($M) | $1.9B | $2.0B | $2.1B | $2.2B | $2.2B | $2.2B | $1.9B | $2.1B | $2.5B |
| Non-GAAP operating income ($M) YoY % | - | - | - | - | +13.1% | +15.0% | -5.6% | -3.8% | +16.3% |
| Non-GAAP operating margin | 29.0% | 28.8% | 29.3% | 30.6% | 30.7% | 30.7% | 28.6% | 30.0% | 32.1% |
| Non-GAAP diluted EPS | $2.09 | $2.12 | $2.32 | $2.38 | $2.39 | $2.48 | $2.17 | $2.38 | $2.86 |
| Non-GAAP diluted EPS YoY % | - | - | - | - | +14.4% | +17.0% | -6.5% | +0.0% | +19.7% |
| GAAP diluted EPS | $2.06 | $2.05 | $2.09 | $1.45 | $2.63 | $2.22 | $2.36 | $2.54 | $3.51 |
| GAAP diluted EPS YoY % | - | - | - | - | +27.7% | +8.3% | +12.9% | +75.2% | +33.5% |
AMAT is accelerating into the back half of FY26. Three of the last four quarters showed sequential growth, the GM line crossed 50% (a long-time bull-case milestone), and FY26Q3 guidance points to record revenue with operating leverage. Bull case (AI/leading-edge/advanced packaging) is in execution mode; bear case watches are China policy risk and DRAM cyclicality, but neither was a near-term headwind on this call.
Beat/Miss
Guidance
Catalysts
Street Q&A
Contradictions
Read-Throughs
| Metric | Consensus | Actual | Variance | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.68B Street | $7.91B (calc from op income) | +$230M / +3.0% | Beat |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $2.68 Street | $2.86 | +$0.18 / +6.7% | Beat |
| Non-GAAP gross margin | ~49.3% | 50.0% | +70bps vs Street | Beat |
| Non-GAAP operating margin | ~31.0% | 32.1% | +110bps vs Street | Beat |
Pattern: AMAT is in the middle of a clean acceleration. Non-GAAP EPS has beat each of the last 4 quarters with magnitudes ranging $0.05–$0.18; FY26Q2 was the largest beat magnitude of the last 12 quarters. GM crossing 50% is a structural milestone, not just a print — driven by leading-edge mix (etch/deposition for foundry-logic and DRAM) and advanced packaging.
| Metric | Prior Guide (Q1) | New Guide (Q2) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (FY26Q3) | n/a | $8.95B ± $500M | Implies +13% QoQ, +15% YoY — record high |
| Non-GAAP EPS (FY26Q3) | n/a | $3.36 ± $0.20 | Above $3.10–$3.20 Street ahead of print |
| Non-GAAP gross margin | ~49.0% guided last quarter | Guided ~50.1% for Q3 | ~110bps above prior trajectory |
| China revenue mix | Roughly stable/normalizing | Reaffirmed normalizing pattern | China policy still a watch item |
| FY26 capex / opex tone | Disciplined | Disciplined; sustainable margin expansion narrative | Supports thesis of structural margin step-up |
| Catalyst | Timing | Consensus / Watch | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leading-edge foundry/logic (GAA/N2) | 2H 2026 / 2027 | Multi-year capex cycle for advanced nodes | Drives Semi Systems revenue and mix |
| DRAM HBM capex | 2026 | AI memory demand pulling HBM capacity | Direct AMAT etch/dep TAM expansion |
| Advanced packaging (CoWoS / HBM) | 2026-2027 | TSMC 4x CoWoS, customer-funded buildouts | AMAT growing share in package equipment |
| China policy / export controls | Ongoing | Tightening restrictions, customer license risk | Headwind to monitor; mgmt language calm |
| FY26Q3 print (Aug 2026) | Aug 2026 | Guide $8.95B ± $500M, $3.36 ± $0.20 | Key tell for sustainability of inflection |
| Question | Management response | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Is 50% gross margin sustainable? | Yes — driven by leading-edge mix and pricing discipline; structural not cyclical. | Well answered |
| China sustainability vs export controls? | Pattern of normalization continues; restrictions priced in; long-term diversification ongoing. | Adequate |
| What is the AI-related share of bookings? | Did not quantify directly; leading-edge foundry/logic, DRAM HBM, advanced packaging all benefiting. | Partially deflected |
| Why guide so high for Q3? | Demand visibility from advanced-node customer roadmaps and existing backlog. | Well answered |
| Capital allocation / buybacks? | Continued buybacks and dividend; flexibility around M&A. | Well answered |
| Theme | Commentary | Read-through |
|---|---|---|
| WFE upcycle | AMAT inflecting alongside AI capex | Positive read-through for KLAC, LRCX, ASML, and TER |
| DRAM HBM | Memory equipment mix improving on HBM demand | Bullish for MU, HBM ecosystem, and memory equipment exposure |
| Leading-edge foundry/logic | Equipment demand strong for GAA/N2/3nm | Positive read-through for TSM capex and indirectly NVDA, AVGO roadmaps |
| Advanced packaging | CoWoS capex expansion benefiting AMAT | Positive for TSM CoWoS suppliers, BESI, and substrate ecosystem |
| China policy | Normalizing pattern, no acute incremental headwind cited | Slightly less bearish for KLAC, LRCX China exposure |
Data sourced from Daloopa. Document search is currently in beta; transcript and filing snippets may vary.