Built by Codex Sol 5.6Reports Wednesday, October 28, 2026, on the current FMP calendar; Align has not confirmed the date or time. Prepared Friday, September 25, 2026. This previews the unreported quarter ended September 30. The last reported quarter was Q2 2026 on July 29.
ALGN | Earnings Preview
| Q3 revenue guide | $1.000–1.020 billion | FMP Q3 revenue | $1.0147 billion; +1.9% YoY |
| Q3 Clear Aligner cases | Up mid-single digits YoY | Q3 GAAP gross margin | 67.5–68.5%; $20–30m of one-time charges |
| FY2026 revenue | +3–4% YoY; unchanged |
Align's Q2 release set Q3 revenue at $1,000 million to $1,020 million. FMP's September 24 estimate of $1,014.7 million is only $4.7 million above the midpoint. Against $995.7 million a year ago, consensus implies +1.9% growth, down about 240 basis points from Q2's +4.3%. The bar already assumes slower growth; the useful question is whether the cases, ASP, and Systems bridge is better or worse than management's July assumptions.
Q2 Clear Aligner cases grew +7.4% YoY. Management expects Q3 up mid-single digits and ASP down sequentially as geography and FX change. Systems & Services is expected to decline both sequentially and YoY. That segment's FY2026 growth outlook is down 6–8%, as the primary release states; a Daloopa growth tag dropped the negative sign. Full-year Clear Aligner volume was raised to about +6%, yet company revenue growth stayed at 3% to 4%. That mismatch is the quarter's central test.
FY2026 revenue growth remains 3–4%. FY2027 has no management revenue or EPS guide, and there is no internal estimate to show. The 67.5–68.5% Q3 GAAP gross-margin outlook includes $20–30 million of expected accelerated depreciation and restructuring charges; it should not be read as a clean run-rate margin. Source: Align's July release.
Management raised its case-volume view after Q2 but did not raise the revenue-growth range. That suggests confidence in demand with a deliberately cautious view of Systems revenue and ASP. The FY Systems forecast is the negative offset. The Elliott-linked operating review and board refresh announced in July could affect the 2027 margin path, but no completed review or revised guide was public in the September 24 research file. A company update on that work is a catalyst separate from the Q3 revenue print. The November U.S. ITC initial determination in the Angelalign patent case falls after the expected earnings date. Sources: Align's strategic-initiatives release, saved Task 5, and the Q2 release.
Across 2021–2025, revenue was $3.953bn, $3.735bn, $3.862bn, $3.999bn, and $4.035bn. Growth was −5.5%, +3.4%, +3.5%, then +0.9%. Clear Aligner case volume was 2.548m, 2.359m, 2.409m, 2.494m, and 2.611m, with growth improving to +4.7% in 2025. Volume recovered faster than revenue; ASP and Systems mix explain why 2026 revenue guidance still grows only 3–4%.
The last eight reported quarters show the same split. Revenue in Q3 2024 through Q2 2026 was $977.9m, $995.2m, $979.3m, $1,012.4m, $995.7m, $1,047.6m, $1,040.1m, and $1,056.2m. Case volume over those same quarters was 617.0k, 629.0k, 642.3k, 644.4k, 647.8k, 676.9k, 685.7k, and 691.8k. Case-volume YoY growth accelerated from 4.9% in Q3 2025 to 7.4% in Q2 2026, while Q2 Systems & Services revenue fell 10.8% YoY to $185.3m from $207.8m. Q3 guidance asks for slower volume growth, not a stronger consumer.
The saved twelve-quarter scorecard uses FMP estimates versus Daloopa non-GAAP diluted EPS and net revenue. Align beat EPS in 10 of 12 and revenue in 7 of 12; both are 4 of 4 in the latest four. The latest EPS beat was only $0.02 and the revenue beat $4.2 million, so the recent direction of surprise size is less favorable than the streak suggests. The Q3 2026 row has no actuals. The full quarter-by-quarter basis and source links are in the saved research workspace's task_7_beat_miss_record.md.