Financial Trends -- 7/10
Revenue YoY re-accelerating to +18% in Q1'26, gross margin durably ~78%, adj. EBITDA margin
holding ~35%, diluted share count declining via buybacks (-3.8% YoY). Blemishes: GAAP operating
income flat-to-down while revenue grew +10% in FY2025, FCF growth decelerated to +2.9% FY2025
and -4% Q1'26 YoY. The "revenue growing but operating income declining" penalty applies (-1).
Base 8 - 1 = 7/10.
Weight: 25%
FY2025 Revenue
$12.2B
+10.3% YoY | Re-accelerating to +18% in Q1'26
FY2025 Adj. EBITDA Margin
~35%
Holding steady | $4,297M
FY2025 FCF
$4.6B
+2.9% YoY | Growth stalling
Share Count
608M
-3.8% YoY | Declining via buybacks
Quarterly Financial Summary
| Quarter | Revenue ($M) | YoY | Gross Margin | GAAP Op Margin | Adj EBITDA ($M) | EPS | FCF ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'24 | $2,142 | — | 77.6% | 4.7% | $424 | $0.41 | $1,909 |
| Q2'24 | $2,748 | — | 81.6% | 18.1% | $894 | $0.86 | $1,043 |
| Q3'24 | $3,732 | — | 87.5% | 40.9% | $1,958 | $2.13 | $1,074 |
| Q4'24 | $2,480 | — | 82.8% | 17.3% | $765 | $0.73 | $458 |
| Q1'25 | $2,272 | +6.1% | 77.7% | 1.7% | $417 | $0.24 | $1,781 |
| Q2'25 | $3,096 | +12.7% | 82.4% | 19.8% | $1,043 | $1.03 | $962 |
| Q3'25 | $4,095 | +9.7% | 86.6% | 39.7% | $2,051 | $2.21 | $1,349 |
| Q4'25 | $2,778 | +12.0% | 82.5% | 9.7% | $786 | $0.56 | $521 |
| Q1'26 | $2,678 | +17.9% | 78.3% | 3.2% | $519 | $0.26 | $1,704 |
Quarterly data sourced from Daloopa. Revenue, Adj EBITDA, EPS, and FCF linked to source filings.
Key Trends
Revenue re-accelerating: +6.1% → +12.7% → +9.7% → +12.0% → +17.9%. GBV accelerating even faster (+19.2% Q1'26).
Gross margin durably ~78-87% (seasonal pattern, Q3 peak).
GAAP operating margin eroding: FY2025 20.8% vs FY2024 23.0% (-220bps) — investment in Services/Experiences outgrowing revenue.
Share count declining steadily: 654M → 608M (-7% over 2 years).
Gross margin durably ~78-87% (seasonal pattern, Q3 peak).
GAAP operating margin eroding: FY2025 20.8% vs FY2024 23.0% (-220bps) — investment in Services/Experiences outgrowing revenue.
Share count declining steadily: 654M → 608M (-7% over 2 years).
Regional Revenue (Q1'26)
Regional revenue data sourced from Daloopa.
Annual Financial Summary (FY2021-FY2025)
| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($M) | YoY | Gross Margin | Adj EBITDA ($M) | EBITDA Margin | FCF ($M) | Shares (M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $5,992 | — | 80.7% | $1,593 | 27% | $2,164 | 616 |
| FY2022 | $8,399 | +40.2% | 82.2% | $2,903 | 35% | $3,405 | 680 |
| FY2023 | $9,917 | +18.1% | 82.8% | $3,653 | 37% | $3,837 | 662 |
| FY2024 | $11,102 | +11.9% | 83.1% | $4,041 | 36% | $4,484 | 645 |
| FY2025 | $12,241 | +10.3% | 82.9% | $4,297 | 35% | $4,613 | 623 |
Annual data sourced from Daloopa. Revenue, Adj EBITDA, FCF, and share counts linked to source filings.
Scoring Penalty
"Revenue growing but operating income declining" penalty applies (-1).
FY2025 revenue grew +10.3% while GAAP operating income was essentially flat ($2,553M → $2,544M).
Investment in new verticals (Services, Experiences) is outpacing top-line growth on a GAAP basis.
Base score 8 - 1 penalty = 7/10.
Financial Trends score: 7/10. Weight: 25%. Data sourced from Daloopa.