Financial Trends -- 7/10
Revenue deceleration is narrowing sharply (-2,210 bps to -160 bps over 3 years), and GBV is
re-accelerating to +15.4% in Q4 2025 -- the strongest since post-COVID recovery. ADR inflected
from -0.9% to +5.9% YoY, signaling pricing power returning. FCF generation remains elite at
38% margin ($4.6B in 2025). EBITDA margin compressed 200bp over 2 years (37% to 35%) but this is
deliberate reinvestment, not deterioration. Management guides 2026 revenue growth to
"at least low double digits," implying potential re-acceleration.
Weight: 25%
FY25 Revenue
$12.2B
+10.3% YoY | Decel narrowing to -160 bps
FY25 GBV
$91.3B
+11.5% YoY | Q4 re-accel to +15.4%
FY25 Adj EBITDA
$4.3B
35% margin | -200bp vs FY23 peak
FY25 FCF
$4.6B
38% margin | Cumulative ~$19B since IPO
Annual Financial Summary ($M, FY ends December)
| Metric | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3,378M | $5,992M | $8,399M | $9,917M | $11,102M | $12,241M |
| Rev YoY | — | +77.4% | +40.2% | +18.1% | +11.9% | +10.3% |
| Rev Accel (bps) | — | — | — | -2,210 bps | -620 bps | -160 bps |
| GBV ($B) | $23.9B | $46.9B | $63.2B | $73.3B | $81.9B | $91.3B |
| GBV YoY | — | +96.2% | +34.8% | +16.0% | +11.7% | +11.5% |
| Nights Booked (M) | 193.2M | 300.6M | 393.7M | 448.2M | 491.5M | 533.0M |
| Nights YoY | — | +55.6% | +31.0% | +13.8% | +9.7% | +8.4% |
| ADR | ~$124 | ~$156 | ~$161 | ~$163 | ~$167 | ~$171 |
| ADR YoY | — | ~+26% | ~+3% | ~+1% | ~+2% | ~+3% |
| Take Rate | 14.1% | 12.8% | 13.3% | 13.5% | 13.6% | 13.4% |
| Gross Margin | 74.1% | 80.7% | 82.2% | 82.8% | 83.1% | 83.0% |
| Adj EBITDA | ($251M) | $1,593M | $2,903M | $3,653M | $4,041M | $4,297M |
| EBITDA Margin | NM | 27% | 35% | 37% | 36% | 35% |
| Net Income | ($4,585M) | ($352M) | $1,893M | $4,792M | $2,648M | $2,511M |
| Diluted EPS | -$16.12 | -$0.57 | $2.79 | $7.24 | $4.11 | $4.03 |
| FCF | ($667M) | $2,164M | $3,405M | $3,837M | $4,484M | $4,613M |
| FCF Margin | NM | 36% | 41% | 39% | 40% | 38% |
| Diluted Shares (M) | 284 | 616 | 680 | 662 | 645 | 623 |
| Share Count YoY | — | +117% | +10.4% | -2.6% | -2.6% | -3.4% |
Note: 2023 NI and EPS inflated by large tax benefit; 2024/2025 represent normalized run-rate.
Revenue deceleration is narrowing sharply: -2,210 bps (2023) to
-620 bps (2024) to just -160 bps (2025). The rate of deceleration has compressed by
93% in two years. GBV growth re-accelerated from +11.7% to +11.5% annually, but the quarterly
trajectory tells a stronger story -- from +9.4% in Q3 2024 to +15.4% in Q4 2025, a 600bp
improvement. Take rate stable at ~13.4-13.6%. Gross margin is a fortress at 83% for 3
consecutive years.
Quarterly Trends (YoY Growth)
| Metric | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY | +17.8% | +10.6% | +9.9% | +11.8% | +6.1% | +12.7% | +9.7% | +12.0% |
| GBV YoY | +12.6% | +11.0% | +9.4% | +14.1% | +6.6% | +10.8% | +14.4% | +15.4% |
| Nights YoY | +9.5% | +8.7% | +8.5% | +12.3% | +7.9% | +7.4% | +8.8% | +9.8% |
| ADR | $172.88 | $169.53 | $163.64 | $158.13 | $171.34 | $174.48 | $171.29 | $167.51 |
| ADR YoY | +2.6% | +2.1% | +1.4% | +0.9% | -0.9% | +2.9% | +4.7% | +5.9% |
| EBITDA Margin | 20% | 33% | 52% | 31% | 18% | 34% | 50% | 28% |
| EBITDA Mgn YoY chg | +600bp | 0bp | -200bp | -200bp | -200bp | +100bp | -200bp | -300bp |
| Diluted EPS | $0.41 | $0.86 | $2.13 | $0.73 | $0.24 | $1.03 | $2.21 | $0.56 |
| EPS YoY | +128% | -12% | -68% | NM | -41% | +20% | +4% | -23% |
| FCF ($M) | $1,909M | $1,043M | $1,074M | $458M | $1,781M | $962M | $1,349M | $521M |
GBV re-accelerated from +9.4% in Q3 2024 to +15.4% in Q4 2025
-- a 600 bps improvement and the strongest since post-COVID recovery. GBV is a
leading indicator as it captures future check-ins. Quarterly revenue acceleration inflected
positively: Q2 2025 vs Q1 2025 showed +660 bps acceleration, and Q4 2025 vs Q3 2025 added
+230 bps. The quarterly pattern shows a clear inflection in H2 2025 driven by product
initiatives (Reserve Now Pay Later, fee simplification, cancellation policy updates).
ADR inflected from -0.9% YoY in Q1 2025 to +5.9% in Q4 2025
($167.51).
This is driven by Reserve Now Pay Later shifting mix toward larger/higher-priced homes and
some FX benefit. Positive pricing power without requiring incremental volume growth. Nights
booked growth stabilized in mid-high single digits with a pickup in Q4 2025
(121.9M, +9.8% YoY).
Margin and Profitability Assessment
- Gross margin: Stable at ~83% for 3 consecutive years. Exceptional for a marketplace
- Adj EBITDA margin: Slight compression from 37% (2023) to 36% (2024) to 35% (2025). Management guiding stable margins in 2026 while reinvesting efficiencies into growth. This is deliberate, not deterioration
- FCF margin: Steady ~38-40%. Generated $4.6B in FCF in 2025 on $12.2B revenue. Cumulative FCF since IPO approaching $19B
- EPS trend: GAAP EPS complicated by 2023 tax benefit. Normalized EPS roughly flat at ~$4 for 2024-2025. Share count declining ~3-4% annually from buybacks, providing modest EPS support
EBITDA margin compressed 200bp from the 2023 peak (37% to 35%),
but this is deliberate reinvestment into growth -- not margin deterioration.
Management is channeling efficiency gains into product development, international expansion,
and new business lines (Experiences, Hotels). FCF margin at 38% remains elite and reflects
the capital-light nature of the marketplace model. CapEx is minimal at just
$33M in FY2025.
Free Cash Flow ($M, Annual)
FCF of
$4,613M in FY2025 represents a 38%
margin -- exceptional and consistent. The capital-light marketplace model requires
minimal CapEx (~$30-50M annually). OCF-to-FCF conversion is nearly 100%. Q1 is seasonally
the strongest FCF quarter due to unearned fees collected ahead of summer check-ins.
Share Count and Capital Return (Annual)
- Share count declining ~3-4% annually from buybacks, providing EPS accretion
- Repurchased $3.8B in 2025 (80%+ of FCF). $6.6B remaining on authorization
- Diluted shares down ~9% from 680M peak (2022) to 623M (2025)
- Tax rate expected to decline to mid-to-high teens from 2026 under new legislation
Acceleration / Deceleration Analysis
| Metric | 2023 vs 2022 | 2024 vs 2023 | 2025 vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth Accel | -2,210 bps | -620 bps | -160 bps |
| EBITDA Margin Change | +200 bps | -100 bps | -100 bps |
| GBV Growth Accel | -1,880 bps | -430 bps | -20 bps |
| Nights Growth Accel | -1,720 bps | -410 bps | -130 bps |
All key metrics are decelerating, but the rate of deceleration
has compressed dramatically. Revenue deceleration narrowed from -2,210 bps to just
-160 bps. GBV deceleration is nearly zero at -20 bps annually, and the quarterly trend is
clearly re-accelerating. This is a business approaching a growth inflection point -- the
annual numbers lag the quarterly signal.
Penalty / Modifier Assessment
| Factor | Impact | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue deceleration (annual) | -0.5 | 3 consecutive years of deceleration, though rate of decline is narrowing sharply |
| EBITDA margin compression | -0.5 | 200bp cumulative compression over 2 years (37% to 35%), though deliberate reinvestment |
| EPS flat/declining | -0.5 | Normalized EPS essentially flat at ~$4 for two years |
| Nights growth slowing | -0.5 | Volume growth narrowing to high-single digits |
| GBV re-acceleration | +0.5 | Strong leading indicator; Q4 2025 at +15.4% |
| ADR inflection | +0.5 | Positive pricing power returning after multi-quarter softness |
| FCF generation | +0.5 | Exceptional and consistent ~38% FCF margin; $4.6B in 2025 |
| Share count reduction | +0.5 | ~9% reduction since buyback program began; ongoing 80%+ FCF return |
Net penalty impact: 0 pts (4 negatives and 4 positives offset).
The penalties reflect real headwinds -- decelerating revenue, compressing margins, flat EPS.
But the positives are equally real -- GBV re-acceleration, ADR inflection, elite FCF, and
disciplined capital return.
Transcript Context
From the Q4 2025 earnings call: Management attributes the growth inflection
to specific product initiatives -- Reserve Now Pay Later (70% adoption among eligible guests),
fee simplification, and cancellation policy changes -- that delivered 200+ bps to nights growth
and 300+ bps to GBV growth in Q4 2025. 2026 guidance: revenue growth to accelerate to
"at least low double digits" with ambition to grow faster. EBITDA margin guided stable
YoY. Q1 2026 guided to 14-16% revenue growth (includes ~3pp FX tailwind). Major events
(FIFA World Cup, Winter Olympics) provide additional tailwinds.
International expansion showing results: Brazil moved from top-10 to top-5
market; India growing ~50% YoY; Japan domestic market ramping. Expansion markets growing at
2x core markets. New businesses (Experiences, Hotels) still early/immaterial
-- management says 3-5 years to material contribution. ~50% of experience bookers have no
Airbnb stay, indicating new customer acquisition channel. Capital return:
Repurchased $3.8B in 2025 (80%+ of FCF). $6.6B remaining on authorization.
Score Rationale
Score of 7/10 reflects a high-quality business with improving momentum that has not yet delivered a full year of re-accelerating revenue growth.
Positives (supporting 7):
- Revenue deceleration narrowing sharply (-2,210 bps to -160 bps), with clear product-driven inflection points visible in quarterly data
- GBV re-accelerating to mid-teens growth -- a strong leading indicator
- ADR inflection from negative to +6% YoY signals pricing power returning
- Exceptional FCF generation (~38% margin, $4.6B annually) with disciplined capital return
- Gross margin fortress at 83%
- Management has a credible, specific playbook for re-acceleration (not just hope)
- 2026 guidance for acceleration to low-double-digit+ growth is backed by visible levers
Factors preventing an 8+:
- Annual revenue growth still decelerating (10.3% in 2025 vs 11.9% in 2024)
- Volume growth (nights booked) narrowing to high-single digits -- harder to sustain
- EBITDA margin compressed 200bp over 2 years (deliberate, but still a headwind)
- Normalized EPS essentially flat for two years (~$4)
- New business initiatives (experiences, hotels, services) remain pre-revenue at scale
- Take rate stable but not expanding -- limited pricing power at the platform level
Data sourced from Daloopa (company_id: 11530) and Airbnb earnings releases (FY2020 through Q4 2025). All financials in USD. Fiscal year ends December.