Airbnb, Inc. — 6.95/10
| CEO | Brian Chesky (Co-Founder, since inception) |
| CFO | Ellie Mertz (since early 2024) |
| FY2025 Revenue | $12,241M (+10.3% YoY) |
| FY2025 Adj. EBITDA | $4,297M (~35% margin) |
| Global STR Share | ~44-50% (#1) |
| FY2025 FCF | $4,613M |
| Share Count Trend | 654M → 608M (-7% over 2 yrs) |
| Quality Gate | Partial Pass (1 NO: FCF not growing) |
| Dimension | Score | Weight | Weighted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Trends | 7 | 25% | 1.75 |
| Thematic Exposure | 8 | 35% | 2.80 |
| Management Quality | 8 | 20% | 1.60 |
| Investor Sentiment | 4 | 5% | 0.20 |
| Concerns & Risks | 4 | 15% | 0.60 |
| Composite | 6.95 | 100% | 6.95 |
Airbnb is the category leader in a growing theme: ~44-50% share of a global STR market consolidating toward the top 3 (~71% combined) and compounding ~9-12% CAGR, with pricing power and a brand-as-verb demand moat. Revenue re-accelerated to +18% in Q1'26 driven by GBV growth (+19%) and take-rate expansion. Management has a perfect beat-and-raise cadence (7/7 guidance hits), and the Summer Release 2026 launched a multi-category "super-app" pivot (Experiences, Services, car rentals, hotels).
The 6.95 composite reflects: (1) stalling FCF growth (+2.9% FY25, -4% Q1'26) and GAAP operating leverage erosion (-220bps), (2) a crowded consensus Buy with insiders selling and no management-street divergence, and (3) valuation at ~2x direct peers with no margin of safety.
Quality gate: PARTIAL PASS (1 NO). Oligopoly = YES; managementTrackRecord = YES; positiveGrowingFcf = NO.