Financial Trends -- 7/10
Strong revenue growth story. Product revenue grew 29% YoY in FY2026 to $4.5B, with quarterly
YoY rates oscillating in the 26-31% range and showing meaningful re-acceleration. RPO growth
is accelerating (34% to 42% YoY), the strongest leading indicator. Non-GAAP operating margin
expanded from ~6% to 10.5%. FCF of $1.12B (+27%) is real and growing. The headwinds are
well-known: massive SBC (34% of revenue), ongoing share dilution (+3.5%/yr), and GAAP losses
that make valuation on earnings impossible.
Weight: 25%
FY26 Product Revenue
$4,477M
+29.3% YoY | Re-accelerating ~30%
FY26 FCF
$1,120M
+26.7% YoY | ~24% FCF margin
Non-GAAP Op Margin
10.5%
FY26 avg | Up from ~6% in FY25
RPO
$9.8B
FQ4 FY26 | +42% YoY | Accelerating
Product Revenue Trajectory (USD M, Quarterly)
Revenue re-accelerating at scale. Product revenue (the key
metric for this consumption-based model) grew 29% YoY in FY2026, with FQ2 hitting +31.4% and FQ4
holding at +30.4%. FY27 guidance calls for $5.66B product revenue (+27% YoY including ~1pp from
Observe acquisition). Management signed 7 nine-figure deals and one $400M+ contract in Q4.
| Metric | FQ1 FY25 | FQ2 FY25 | FQ3 FY25 | FQ4 FY25 | FQ1 FY26 | FQ2 FY26 | FQ3 FY26 | FQ4 FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Product Rev ($M) | $789.6M | $829.3M | $900.3M | $943.3M | $996.8M | $1,090.0M | $1,160.0M | $1,230.0M |
| Product Rev YoY | — | — | — | — | 26.2% | 31.4% | 28.8% | 30.4% |
| Total Rev ($M) | $828.7M | $868.8M | $942.1M | $986.8M | $1,042.1M | $1,145.0M | $1,212.9M | $1,284.0M |
| Total Rev YoY | — | — | — | — | 25.7% | 31.8% | 28.7% | 30.1% |
FY25 Product Rev: $3,462M | FY26 Product Rev: $4,477M (+29.3%). FY25 Total Rev: $3,626M | FY26 Total Rev: $4,684M (+29.2%). Data sourced from Daloopa.
Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO)
RPO accelerating -- the strongest leading indicator. RPO
grew from $5.0B to $9.8B over FY25-FY26, with YoY growth accelerating from +34% in FQ1 to +42%
in FQ4. This reflects large multiyear contract signings and provides excellent forward revenue
visibility. The $9.8B in RPO represents ~2x the FY26 total revenue run rate.
Data sourced from Daloopa.
Operating Margin Expansion
Operating leverage emerging. Non-GAAP operating margin
expanded from 4% (FQ1 FY25) to 11% (FQ4 FY26) -- a 7-point improvement in 8 quarters. GAAP
operating margins improved from -42% to -25%, a 17-point improvement driven by revenue scale
outpacing SBC growth. The gap between GAAP and non-GAAP (~36 points) is almost entirely SBC.
FY27 guidance targets 12.5% non-GAAP operating margin (+200bps).
FY25 Non-GAAP Op Margin: ~6% avg | FY26 Non-GAAP Op Margin: 10.5% avg (+450bps). Data sourced from Daloopa.
Free Cash Flow Generation
FCF growing -- $884M to $1,120M (+27% YoY). FCF remains
highly seasonal (Q4-heavy due to annual contract renewals), but annual generation is strong and
growing. FCF margin of ~24% in FY26 significantly exceeds non-GAAP operating margin (10.5%),
reflecting strong working capital dynamics. The $1.1B remaining buyback authorization is insufficient
to offset SBC-driven dilution at current levels.
FY25 FCF: $884M (~24% margin) | FY26 FCF: $1,120M (~24% margin). Data sourced from Daloopa.
Customer Metrics
Healthy customer expansion across all cohorts. Total
customers grew +19% YoY to 13,328 in FQ4 FY26. Customers spending >$1M TTM grew +26% YoY
(580 to 733), confirming upmarket traction. NRR declined from 128% to 124% in FQ1 but
stabilized at 125% for the remaining three quarters -- still healthy for a consumption-based
model. Management noted NRR stabilization on the FQ4 call.
Data sourced from Daloopa.
Concerns: SBC and Share Dilution
SBC is $1.6B (34% of revenue) -- the primary reason SNOW is GAAP
unprofitable. SBC remains extreme, exceeding the -$1.33B GAAP net loss by a wide margin.
The positive trajectory is clear: SBC as a percentage of revenue declined ~780bps from 42% (FY25)
to 34% (FY26). Shares outstanding grew +3.5% YoY despite $150M in Q4 buybacks -- the $1.1B
remaining buyback program is insufficient to offset SBC-driven dilution. Non-GAAP product gross
margin is stable at 75-77%, with a slight 200bp compression over the 8-quarter period.
FY25 SBC: $1,518M (42% of rev) | FY26 SBC: $1,600M (34% of rev). Data sourced from Daloopa.
Acceleration / Deceleration Analysis
| Signal | Detail | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Product Revenue Growth | +26% in FQ1, re-accelerated to +31% in FQ2, holding at +30% in FQ4 | Re-accelerating |
| RPO Growth | +34% in FQ1 accelerated to +42% in FQ4; strongest leading indicator | Accelerating |
| Operating Margins | Non-GAAP 4% to 11% in 8 quarters; GAAP from -42% to -25% | Expanding |
| FCF Generation | $884M to $1,120M (+27% YoY); ~24% FCF margin; strong and growing | Growing |
| Customer Expansion | Total +19% YoY; >$1M customers +26% YoY (580 to 733) | Healthy |
| Net Revenue Retention | Declined from 128% to 124%, stabilized at 125%; still healthy | Stabilizing |
| SBC Burden | $1.6B (34% of rev); declining as % (-780bps) but still extreme in absolute terms | Elevated |
| Share Dilution | +3.5% YoY share count growth despite buybacks; net dilutive | Dilutive |
Score Derivation
| Component | Assessment | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Base Score | +29% product revenue growth at $4.5B scale, RPO accelerating to +42%, non-GAAP margin 4% to 11%, FCF $1.12B, 13K+ customers, 733 with >$1M spend | 8.5 |
| SBC Penalty | $1.6B SBC (34% of revenue); exceeds GAAP net loss; among highest in software; primary reason for GAAP unprofitability | -1.0 |
| Share Dilution Penalty | Shares +3.5% YoY (330M to 346M) despite $150M Q4 buybacks; buyback program insufficient to offset SBC dilution | -0.5 |
| Final Score | Base 8.5 less 1.5 in penalties = 7.0 | 7.0 / 10 |
Final Score: 7.0 / 10. Excellent top-line momentum and
margin expansion, penalized for substantial SBC and dilution overhang. Product revenue grew 29%
at $4.5B scale with re-acceleration. RPO growth is accelerating (42% YoY), non-GAAP margins
expanding (4% to 11%), and FCF growing to $1.12B. The trajectory is clearly positive --
SBC/revenue declining ~800bps/yr, GAAP operating margin improving ~15pp/yr -- but Snowflake
remains years from GAAP profitability. NRR stabilized at 125% after declining from 128%.
Key Risks to Score
Upside: Product revenue sustains +30% growth;
AI/Cortex products begin contributing material revenue; RPO conversion accelerates; SBC
declines below 30% of revenue; non-GAAP operating margin reaches 15%+; buyback program
expanded sufficiently to offset dilution. Score moves to 8.0.
Downside: Consumption growth decelerates as macro
weakens; Databricks competitive wins accelerate in lakehouse; NRR declines below 120%;
SBC remains above 30% of revenue for multiple years; new CEO Ramaswamy changes strategic
direction; gross margins compress further. Score drops to 6.0.