Financial Trends -- 7/10

Strong revenue growth story. Product revenue grew 29% YoY in FY2026 to $4.5B, with quarterly YoY rates oscillating in the 26-31% range and showing meaningful re-acceleration. RPO growth is accelerating (34% to 42% YoY), the strongest leading indicator. Non-GAAP operating margin expanded from ~6% to 10.5%. FCF of $1.12B (+27%) is real and growing. The headwinds are well-known: massive SBC (34% of revenue), ongoing share dilution (+3.5%/yr), and GAAP losses that make valuation on earnings impossible. Weight: 25%
FY26 Product Revenue
$4,477M
+29.3% YoY | Re-accelerating ~30%
FY26 FCF
$1,120M
+26.7% YoY | ~24% FCF margin
Non-GAAP Op Margin
10.5%
FY26 avg | Up from ~6% in FY25
RPO
$9.8B
FQ4 FY26 | +42% YoY | Accelerating
Product Revenue Trajectory (USD M, Quarterly)
Revenue re-accelerating at scale. Product revenue (the key metric for this consumption-based model) grew 29% YoY in FY2026, with FQ2 hitting +31.4% and FQ4 holding at +30.4%. FY27 guidance calls for $5.66B product revenue (+27% YoY including ~1pp from Observe acquisition). Management signed 7 nine-figure deals and one $400M+ contract in Q4.
MetricFQ1 FY25FQ2 FY25FQ3 FY25FQ4 FY25FQ1 FY26FQ2 FY26FQ3 FY26FQ4 FY26
Product Rev ($M)$789.6M$829.3M$900.3M$943.3M$996.8M$1,090.0M$1,160.0M$1,230.0M
Product Rev YoY26.2%31.4%28.8%30.4%
Total Rev ($M)$828.7M$868.8M$942.1M$986.8M$1,042.1M$1,145.0M$1,212.9M$1,284.0M
Total Rev YoY25.7%31.8%28.7%30.1%
FY25 Product Rev: $3,462M | FY26 Product Rev: $4,477M (+29.3%). FY25 Total Rev: $3,626M | FY26 Total Rev: $4,684M (+29.2%). Data sourced from Daloopa.

Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO)
RPO accelerating -- the strongest leading indicator. RPO grew from $5.0B to $9.8B over FY25-FY26, with YoY growth accelerating from +34% in FQ1 to +42% in FQ4. This reflects large multiyear contract signings and provides excellent forward revenue visibility. The $9.8B in RPO represents ~2x the FY26 total revenue run rate.
MetricFQ1 FY25FQ2 FY25FQ3 FY25FQ4 FY25FQ1 FY26FQ2 FY26FQ3 FY26FQ4 FY26
RPO ($B)$5.0B$5.2B$5.7B$6.9B$6.7B$6.9B$7.9B$9.8B
RPO YoY Growth34.3%32.7%38.2%41.6%
Data sourced from Daloopa.

Operating Margin Expansion
Operating leverage emerging. Non-GAAP operating margin expanded from 4% (FQ1 FY25) to 11% (FQ4 FY26) -- a 7-point improvement in 8 quarters. GAAP operating margins improved from -42% to -25%, a 17-point improvement driven by revenue scale outpacing SBC growth. The gap between GAAP and non-GAAP (~36 points) is almost entirely SBC. FY27 guidance targets 12.5% non-GAAP operating margin (+200bps).
MetricFQ1 FY25FQ2 FY25FQ3 FY25FQ4 FY25FQ1 FY26FQ2 FY26FQ3 FY26FQ4 FY26
Non-GAAP Op Margin4%5%6%9%9%11%11%11%
GAAP Op Margin-42%-41%-39%-39%-43%-30%-27%-25%
Non-GAAP Product GM77%76%76%76%76%76%76%75%
GAAP Product GM72%72%71%71%71%72%72%71%
GAAP Total GM67%67%66%66%67%68%68%67%
FY25 Non-GAAP Op Margin: ~6% avg | FY26 Non-GAAP Op Margin: 10.5% avg (+450bps). Data sourced from Daloopa.

Free Cash Flow Generation
FCF growing -- $884M to $1,120M (+27% YoY). FCF remains highly seasonal (Q4-heavy due to annual contract renewals), but annual generation is strong and growing. FCF margin of ~24% in FY26 significantly exceeds non-GAAP operating margin (10.5%), reflecting strong working capital dynamics. The $1.1B remaining buyback authorization is insufficient to offset SBC-driven dilution at current levels.
MetricFQ1 FY25FQ2 FY25FQ3 FY25FQ4 FY25FQ1 FY26FQ2 FY26FQ3 FY26FQ4 FY26
FCF ($M)$331M$61M$75M$414M$188M$57M$109M$770M
FCF Margin40%7%8%42%18%5%9%60%
FY25 FCF: $884M (~24% margin) | FY26 FCF: $1,120M (~24% margin). Data sourced from Daloopa.

Customer Metrics
Healthy customer expansion across all cohorts. Total customers grew +19% YoY to 13,328 in FQ4 FY26. Customers spending >$1M TTM grew +26% YoY (580 to 733), confirming upmarket traction. NRR declined from 128% to 124% in FQ1 but stabilized at 125% for the remaining three quarters -- still healthy for a consumption-based model. Management noted NRR stabilization on the FQ4 call.
MetricFQ1 FY25FQ2 FY25FQ3 FY25FQ4 FY25FQ1 FY26FQ2 FY26FQ3 FY26FQ4 FY26
Total Customers9,82210,24910,61811,15911,57812,06212,62113,328
Customers >$1M TTM485510542580606654688733
Net Revenue Retention128%127%127%126%124%125%125%125%
Data sourced from Daloopa.

Concerns: SBC and Share Dilution
SBC is $1.6B (34% of revenue) -- the primary reason SNOW is GAAP unprofitable. SBC remains extreme, exceeding the -$1.33B GAAP net loss by a wide margin. The positive trajectory is clear: SBC as a percentage of revenue declined ~780bps from 42% (FY25) to 34% (FY26). Shares outstanding grew +3.5% YoY despite $150M in Q4 buybacks -- the $1.1B remaining buyback program is insufficient to offset SBC-driven dilution. Non-GAAP product gross margin is stable at 75-77%, with a slight 200bp compression over the 8-quarter period.
MetricFQ1 FY25FQ2 FY25FQ3 FY25FQ4 FY25FQ1 FY26FQ2 FY26FQ3 FY26FQ4 FY26
SBC ($M)341364375438379404412404
SBC % of Revenue41.2%41.9%39.8%44.4%36.4%35.3%34.0%31.5%
Shares (M)334.8M335.2M330.1M334.1M333.7M338.8M342.2M345.7M
FY25 SBC: $1,518M (42% of rev) | FY26 SBC: $1,600M (34% of rev). Data sourced from Daloopa.

Acceleration / Deceleration Analysis
Signal Detail Direction
Product Revenue Growth +26% in FQ1, re-accelerated to +31% in FQ2, holding at +30% in FQ4 Re-accelerating
RPO Growth +34% in FQ1 accelerated to +42% in FQ4; strongest leading indicator Accelerating
Operating Margins Non-GAAP 4% to 11% in 8 quarters; GAAP from -42% to -25% Expanding
FCF Generation $884M to $1,120M (+27% YoY); ~24% FCF margin; strong and growing Growing
Customer Expansion Total +19% YoY; >$1M customers +26% YoY (580 to 733) Healthy
Net Revenue Retention Declined from 128% to 124%, stabilized at 125%; still healthy Stabilizing
SBC Burden $1.6B (34% of rev); declining as % (-780bps) but still extreme in absolute terms Elevated
Share Dilution +3.5% YoY share count growth despite buybacks; net dilutive Dilutive

Score Derivation
Component Assessment Score
Base Score +29% product revenue growth at $4.5B scale, RPO accelerating to +42%, non-GAAP margin 4% to 11%, FCF $1.12B, 13K+ customers, 733 with >$1M spend 8.5
SBC Penalty $1.6B SBC (34% of revenue); exceeds GAAP net loss; among highest in software; primary reason for GAAP unprofitability -1.0
Share Dilution Penalty Shares +3.5% YoY (330M to 346M) despite $150M Q4 buybacks; buyback program insufficient to offset SBC dilution -0.5
Final Score Base 8.5 less 1.5 in penalties = 7.0 7.0 / 10
Final Score: 7.0 / 10. Excellent top-line momentum and margin expansion, penalized for substantial SBC and dilution overhang. Product revenue grew 29% at $4.5B scale with re-acceleration. RPO growth is accelerating (42% YoY), non-GAAP margins expanding (4% to 11%), and FCF growing to $1.12B. The trajectory is clearly positive -- SBC/revenue declining ~800bps/yr, GAAP operating margin improving ~15pp/yr -- but Snowflake remains years from GAAP profitability. NRR stabilized at 125% after declining from 128%.

Key Risks to Score
Upside: Product revenue sustains +30% growth; AI/Cortex products begin contributing material revenue; RPO conversion accelerates; SBC declines below 30% of revenue; non-GAAP operating margin reaches 15%+; buyback program expanded sufficiently to offset dilution. Score moves to 8.0.
Downside: Consumption growth decelerates as macro weakens; Databricks competitive wins accelerate in lakehouse; NRR declines below 120%; SBC remains above 30% of revenue for multiple years; new CEO Ramaswamy changes strategic direction; gross margins compress further. Score drops to 6.0.