Financial Trends -- 5/10

Deep cyclical (crop inputs / fertilizer) that bottomed in FY24 and is in the early innings of a recovery. Same-quarter revenue YoY reaccelerating (+18.5% Q1'26, strongest in the window), margins expanding 100+bps YoY, share count declining ~1.5%/yr with no dilution, leverage improving to 1.8x, and FCF positive every year. But the quality of the recovery holds it at a 5: gains are measured off a depressed FY24 trough (EBITDA margin 22.5% still ~960bps below the FY22 peak), the Q1'26 strength is price-led on flat-to-down potash volumes, FCF is recovering rather than cleanly accelerating, and management reaffirmed -- not raised -- FY2026 guidance despite the strong start. No penalty modifiers. Weight: 25%

Q1'26 Sales

$6.0B

src | +18.5% YoY | Reaccelerating

Adj EBITDA Margin

22.5%

FY25, +185bps YoY | Below FY22 peak

FY25 FCF

~$2.0B

+45% YoY | Recovering off trough

Share Count

Declining

-1.5%/yr, buyback-driven | No dilution

Quarterly Metrics (2024Q1 – 2026Q1, same-quarter YoY)

Metric	Q1'24	Q2'24	Q3'24	Q4'24	Q1'25	Q2'25	Q3'25	Q4'25	Q1'26	YoY
Sales ($M)	5,389	10,156	5,348	5,079	5,100	10,438	6,007	5,340	6,046	+18.5%
Sales YoY	—	—	—	—	-5.4%	+2.8%	+12.3%	+5.1%	+18.5%	—
Gross margin %	28.5%	28.7%	28.0%	31.1%	25.9%	30.4%	32.7%	35.4%	27.2%	+135bps
Adj EBITDA ($M)	1,055	2,235	1,010	1,055	852	2,486	1,431	1,277	1,105	+29.7%
Adj EBITDA margin %	19.6%	22.0%	18.9%	20.8%	16.7%	23.8%	23.8%	23.9%	18.3%	+160bps
Adj EPS ($)	0.46	2.34	0.39	0.31	0.11	2.65	0.97	0.83	0.51	+364%
Diluted WASO (M)	494.8	494.9	494.9	492.9	489.5	487.6	485.8	483.2	481.6	-1.6%

Revenue YoY reaccelerating off a cyclical trough. Same-quarter YoY moved -5.4% (Q1'25) to +2.8% to +12.3% to +5.1% to +18.5% (Q1'26) -- the latest quarter is the strongest in the window. The lift is price-led: realized potash price +20.5% YoY on flat-to-down volumes, with nitrogen benefiting from higher benchmarks. Note the extreme seasonality -- Q2 is the ~40%-of-sales spring peak, so only same-quarter YoY is valid; sequential comparison is meaningless.

Annual Financial Summary (FY ends December)

Metric	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY25 YoY
Sales ($M)	27,712	37,884	29,056	25,972	26,885	+3.5%
Sales YoY	—	+36.7%	-23.3%	-10.6%	+3.5%	—
Gross margin %	34.0%	40.7%	29.2%	29.0%	31.0%	+205bps
Adj EBITDA ($M)	7,126	12,170	6,058	5,355	6,046	+12.9%
Adj EBITDA margin %	25.7%	32.1%	20.8%	20.6%	22.5%	+185bps
Adj EPS ($)	6.23	13.19	4.44	3.47	4.56	+31.4%
Operating CF ($M)	3,886	8,110	5,066	3,535	4,007	+13.4%
Capex ($M)	1,783	2,438	2,671	2,154	2,005	-6.9%
Free Cash Flow ($M)	2,103	5,672	2,395	1,381	2,002	+45.0%
Diluted WASO (M)	571.3	540.0	497.0	494.4	486.5	-1.6%
Total debt ($M)	10,846	11,928	12,566	12,807	12,019	-6.2%
Net debt/Adj EBITDA (x)	1.4	0.9	1.9	2.2	1.8	-0.4x

Key trends

Cyclical down-leg ended in FY24, FY25 inflected positive: Sales +36.7% (FY22 peak) → -23.3% → -10.6% → +3.5% (FY25); latest quarter +18.5% YoY is the strongest in the window
Margins expanding YoY off a depressed base: Gross +205bps and adj EBITDA margin +185bps in FY25 — but 22.5% EBITDA margin remains ~960bps below the FY22 peak of 32.1%; this is cycle recovery, not structural expansion
Share count declining ~1.5-1.6%/yr: Diluted WASO fell -15% over five years (571M → 486M), buyback-driven with no dilution
Leverage improving, debt down: Total debt -6.2% in FY25 while revenue rose; net debt/EBITDA improved to 1.8x from 2.2x
FCF positive every year but choppy: fell three straight years (FY22 $5.7B → FY23 $2.4B → FY24 $1.4B) before recovering +45% to ~$2.0B in FY25 — recovering, not cleanly accelerating

Segment Adj EBITDA -- Latest-Quarter YoY ($M, Non-GAAP)

Segment	2025Q1	2026Q1	YoY	Trend
Retail	46	108	+135%	Recovering (small base)
Potash	446	578	+29.6%	Price + volume tailwind
Nitrogen	408	482	+18.1%	Benchmark strength
Phosphate	61	57	-6.6%	Weak, under review

Segment Adj EBITDA -- Annual ($M, Non-GAAP)

Segment	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY25 YoY
Potash	2,736	5,769	2,404	1,848	2,254	+22.0%
Nitrogen	2,308	3,931	1,930	1,884	2,147	+14.0%
Retail	1,939	2,293	1,459	1,696	1,736	+2.4%
Phosphate	540	594	470	384	382	-0.5%

The Q1'26 lift is price-led, not volume-led. Realized potash price $264/t vs $219/t a year ago (+20.5%), while Potash NA volume was -2% (1.285 vs 1.312 MMT) and offshore +6.5% (2.225 vs 2.090 MMT). Retail crop-nutrient volume +6.9% (2.448 vs 2.290 MMT). Durability depends on fertilizer benchmarks holding through the Q2 peak -- and management reaffirmed rather than raised FY2026 guidance, capping the earnings-revision story.

Penalty Modifier Check

Modifier	Detail	Penalty
Negative FCF	No -- FCF positive all 5 years (FY21-FY25)	None
Share dilution >10%	No -- shares declining ~1.5%/yr, -15% over five years	None
Revenue up, op income down	No -- adj EBITDA up alongside revenue YoY	None
Debt > revenue growth 3+ qtrs	No -- debt down -6.2% YoY, leverage improving to 1.8x	None

Score Rationale

Score of 5/10 reflects a textbook mid-cycle recovery profile: improving on every line YoY, but driven by exogenous fertilizer benchmarks rather than structural per-unit improvement, and not yet durable enough to score above average. No penalty modifiers apply.

Supports the bull elements (would point toward 6-7):

Same-quarter revenue YoY reaccelerating, latest +18.5% (strongest in the window)
Margins expanding 100+bps YoY (gross +135-205bps, adj EBITDA margin +160-185bps) — clears the rubric's expansion bar
Share count steadily declining ~1.5%/yr via buybacks, no dilution
Leverage improving to 1.8x from 2.2x; debt down while revenue rose
FCF positive every year

What holds it at 5:

Revenue and margin gains measured against a depressed FY24 trough — FY25 EBITDA margin 22.5% is still ~960bps below the FY22 peak
Q1'26 strength is price-led (+20.5% potash price) on flat-to-down potash volumes
FCF is recovering, not cleanly accelerating (fell three straight years FY22→FY24 before the FY25 bounce)
Management reaffirmed — not raised — FY2026 guidance despite the strong start, signaling they are not extrapolating the inflection

Composite quality gate — positive & growing FCF: YES. FCF positive in all five years; recovered +45% to ~$2.0B in FY25 (OCF $4,007M − capex $2,005M).

Data sourced from Daloopa (company_id: 11163). Price/market cap from FMP (2026-06-29). Fiscal year ends December 31. All financials in USD; IFRS GAAP net earnings plus Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA framework.