Financial Trends -- 9.0/10
| Metric | FY24Q1 | FY24Q2 | FY24Q3 | FY24Q4 | FY25Q1 | FY25Q2 | FY25Q3 | FY25Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $1,890.6M | $2,009.9M | $2,038.1M | $2,413.5M | $2,253.4M | $2,440.0M | $2,505.1M | $2,866.2M |
| YoY Growth | — | — | — | — | +19.2% | +21.4% | +22.9% | +18.8% |
| I&A Revenue | $1,158.9M | $1,244.4M | $1,264.2M | $1,411.5M | $1,367.7M | $1,474.1M | $1,518.8M | $1,658.3M |
| YoY Growth | — | — | — | — | +18.0% | +18.4% | +20.1% | +17.5% |
| Systems Revenue | $418.2M | $448.2M | $445.0M | $654.6M | $522.7M | $574.7M | $590.4M | $785.9M |
| YoY Growth | — | — | — | — | +25.0% | +28.2% | +32.7% | +20.0% |
| Services Revenue | $313.5M | $317.3M | $328.9M | $347.4M | $363.0M | $391.2M | $395.9M | $422.0M |
| YoY Growth | — | — | — | — | +15.8% | +23.3% | +20.4% | +21.5% |
- Total revenue grew 19-23% YoY in every quarter of FY2025, with Q3 the strongest at +22.9% driven by system placements ramping
- I&A (58-61% of rev): Steady 17-20% growth reflects expanding installed base and higher utilization; the most durable revenue stream
- Systems (22-27% of rev): Strongest growth segment at 20-33% YoY, driven by da Vinci 5 launch cycle. Q3 peaked at +32.7% before moderating
- Services (14-16% of rev): Accelerated from +15.8% in Q1 to +21.5% in Q4, driven by growing installed base requiring service contracts
- Revenue mix remains healthy: recurring streams (I&A + Services) account for ~81% of total, providing visibility and stability
- Gross margins compressed ~150bps YoY (69.1% FY2024 avg to 67.6% FY2025) due to tariffs, new facility depreciation, and higher-cost dV5/Ion mix
- Operating margins expanded despite GM pressure, reaching 38-39% in Q2-Q3 FY2025, as revenue scale drove OpEx leverage
- Non-GAAP EPS grew 15-30% YoY in every FY2025 quarter, with Q3 the standout at +30.4%
- GAAP EPS tracked Non-GAAP closely, ranging $1.81-$2.21, confirming limited adjustments between the two measures
- Path to GM recovery requires dV5 manufacturing cost-downs and facility utilization leverage -- management guides 67-68% for FY2026
| Metric | FY24Q1 | FY24Q2 | FY24Q3 | FY24Q4 | FY25Q1 | FY25Q2 | FY25Q3 | FY25Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Da Vinci Procedure Growth | 16% | 17% | 18% | 18% | 17% | 17% | 20% | 18% |
| US Procedure Growth | 14% | 14% | 16% | 15% | 13% | 14% | 16% | 15% |
| OUS Procedure Growth | 20% | 22% | 24% | 25% | 24% | 23% | 24% | 21% |
| Ion Procedures | 19,500 | 23,200 | 25,000 | 28,000 | 30,700 | 35,300 | 37,900 | 40,200 |
| Da Vinci Installed Base | 8,887 | 9,203 | 9,539 | 9,902 | 10,189 | 10,488 | 10,763 | 11,106 |
| Ion Installed Base | 604 | 678 | 736 | 805 | 853 | 905 | 954 | 995 |
| Da Vinci Placements | 313 | 341 | 379 | 493 | 367 | 395 | 427 | 532 |
| Placements YoY | — | — | — | — | +17.3% | +15.8% | +12.7% | +7.9% |
| System ASP ($M) | $1.38M | $1.44M | $1.51M | $1.59M | $1.62M | $1.50M | $1.60M | $1.68M |
- Procedure growth of 17-20% in FY2025 remained in the high teens, the most critical leading indicator for I&A revenue durability
- OUS outpaced US in every quarter (21-24% vs 13-16%), reflecting earlier-stage penetration curves internationally
- Ion procedures grew from 19,500 to 40,200 over the 8-quarter period -- a 2x increase -- validating the lung biopsy platform
- Da Vinci installed base crossed 11,000 systems, adding 1,204 systems in FY2025 vs 1,296 in FY2024
- Placements grew 7-17% YoY, decelerating through the year as dV5 availability ramped and some customers awaited broader clearance
- System ASP trended higher from $1.38M to $1.68M, reflecting dV5 premium pricing partially offset by trade-in credits
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $5,710M | $6,222M | $7,124M | $8,352M | $10,065M |
| YoY Growth | +31.0% | +9.0% | +14.5% | +17.2% | +20.5% |
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 71.2% | 69.2% | 68.1% | 69.1% | 67.6% |
| Non-GAAP Op. Margin | 40.5% | 34.5% | 33.6% | 36.7% | 37.4% |
| GAAP Net Income ($M) | $1,728M | $1,344M | $1,817M | $2,338M | $2,877M |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $4.96 | $4.68 | $5.71 | $7.34 | $8.93 |
| EPS YoY | — | -5.6% | +22.0% | +28.5% | +21.7% |
| Da Vinci Installed Base | 6,730 | 7,544 | 8,606 | 9,902 | 11,106 |
| Ion Installed Base | 129 | 321 | 534 | 805 | 995 |
| Da Vinci Placements | 1,347 | 1,264 | 1,370 | 1,526 | 1,721 |
| CFO ($M) | $2,089M | $1,491M | $1,814M | $2,415M | $3,031M |
| Est. FCF ($M) | ~$1,790 | ~$1,190 | ~$1,273 | ~$1,298 | ~$2,500 |
- Revenue nearly doubled from $5.7B to $10.1B over 5 years (15.2% CAGR), with growth re-accelerating to 20%+ in FY2025
- Non-GAAP EPS compounded at 15.8% CAGR ($4.96 to $8.93), with three consecutive years of 20%+ growth after a soft FY2022
- Gross margins compressed from 71.2% to 67.6% as the product mix shifted toward newer, higher-cost platforms (dV5, Ion)
- Operating margins recovered from the 33-34% trough in FY2022-2023 to 37.4% in FY2025, demonstrating OpEx discipline
- Da Vinci installed base grew from 6,730 to 11,106 (+65%), while Ion surged from 129 to 995 (7.7x) over the same period
- FCF inflected sharply in FY2025 (~$2.5B vs ~$1.3B in FY2024) as the heavy facility capex cycle wound down
- CFO grew from $2.1B to $3.0B (9.7% CAGR), providing ample funding for R&D reinvestment and $2.3B in buybacks in FY2025
| Metric | FY2025A | FY2026E | FY2027E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.1B | ~$11.7B | ~$13.4B |
| Revenue YoY | +20.5% | ~16% | ~14% |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $8.93 | ~$10.22 | ~$11.68 |
| EPS YoY | +21.7% | ~14% | ~14% |
- Consensus expects revenue growth to decelerate from 20% to ~16% in FY2026E, still well above MedTech peers
- EPS growth of ~14% implies some margin expansion as dV5 costs come down and facility leverage improves
- FY2026E revenue of ~$11.7B implies ~$2.9B per quarter on average, consistent with FY2025 Q4 run-rate
- At ~44x FY2026E EPS, the stock prices in durable mid-teens growth but leaves limited room for disappointment
- Street models likely underappreciate: MIA+ digital subscription renewals (begin mid-2026), cardiac surgery ramp, ASC/XiR opportunity, and Force Feedback instrument uplift
Intuitive delivered FY2025 revenue of $10.1B (+20.5% YoY), Non-GAAP EPS of $8.93 (+21.7%), and FCF of ~$2.5B (nearly 2x FY2024). This marks the third consecutive year of 20%+ EPS growth, a rare feat for a $161B market cap company. Procedure growth of 18% -- the single most important leading indicator -- remained in the high teens, driven by both US and OUS adoption across general surgery, urology, gynecology, and thoracic specialties.
The revenue model is exceptionally durable: 81-85% of revenue recurs through instruments, accessories, and service contracts tied to the 11,106-system installed base. Each placed system generates $200K+ per year in recurring revenue, creating a growing annuity stream. The da Vinci 5 launch cycle is driving both system ASP uplift and higher utilization per system.
Gross margins compressed ~150bps YoY due to tariffs, new facility depreciation, and higher-cost dV5/Ion manufacturing. This is the primary near-term financial concern. However, operating margins expanded to 37.4% as OpEx leverage offset the GM headwind, and management guides 67-68% GM for FY2026 with a path toward recovery as dV5 costs come down.
FCF inflected sharply as the heavy capex cycle from new manufacturing facilities peaked. Capital allocation is sound: $2.3B in buybacks, $9B cash/investments, zero debt, and sustained R&D reinvestment. The 5-year revenue CAGR of 15.2% and EPS CAGR of 15.8% with re-accelerating growth earn this the highest financial score.
Score: 9.0/10 -- Accelerating revenue growth, 20%+ EPS growth for three consecutive years, durable 80%+ recurring revenue model, and FCF inflection. Deducted one point for gross margin compression and elevated valuation multiples leaving limited margin for error.