Financial Trends — 2/10
A company in the early, unprofitable middle of a turnaround. Revenue has stopped falling and DCAI
is genuinely reaccelerating (+22.4% YoY), and non-GAAP operating margin is recovering ~690bps YoY
off the deep 2024 trough. But Intel is still GAAP-loss-making, burns substantial free cash flow
(FY25 ≈ -$8.0B), and has diluted its share count ~17% YoY. Mandatory penalties: negative FCF
-2, share dilution over 10% -1, revenue-up/operating-income-down -1. Trajectory over absolutes:
the direction is "less bad," not "good."
Weight: 25%
FCF (FY25)
-$8.0B
Negative every build-out year | Weak
Non-GAAP Op Margin
12.3%
+690bps YoY off trough | Recovering
Share Count
+17% YoY
Diluting fast | Value leakage
Quarterly Revenue Trajectory ($M)
Choppy stabilization, not a clean acceleration.
The YoY revenue rate sequence oscillated (-0.4% → +0.2% → +2.8% → -4.1% → +7.2%) before the
Q1'26 print. That +7.2% is flattered by an easy comp and by DCAI (+22.4% YoY) and Foundry
(+16.2% YoY, but external foundry was only ~$174M — mostly internal wafer volume). Revenue is
at best stabilizing, not durably re-accelerating.
Segment Revenue ($M, Quarterly)
| Segment | Q2'24 | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Q1'26 YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCG (Client) | $7,410M | $7,330M | $8,017M | $7,629M | $7,871M | $8,535M | $8,193M | $7,727M | +1.3% |
| DCAI (Data Center & AI) | $3,045M | $3,349M | $3,387M | $4,126M | $3,939M | $4,117M | $4,737M | $5,052M | +22.4% |
| Intel Foundry | $4,320M | $4,352M | $4,502M | $4,667M | $4,417M | $4,235M | $4,507M | $5,421M | +16.2% |
| Mobileye / Other | $440M | $485M | $490M | $438M | $507M | $504M | $451M | $558M | +27.4% |
DCAI is the bright spot; CCG is flat. DCAI accelerated
to +22.4% YoY on a server-demand refresh (demand running ahead of supply), while CCG was
essentially flat (+1.3%) as AMD holds desktop and ARM designs into laptop. Intel Foundry rose
+16.2% but is ~97% internal wafer transfer — external foundry was only ~$174M — so the
externally-facing thematic mix remains CCG + DCAI.
Margin Trajectory (Q1'25 → Q1'26)
Non-GAAP margins recovering; GAAP still deeply negative.
Non-GAAP operating margin expanded ~690bps YoY off the 2024 trough — the strongest favorable
signal, driven by cost takeout / restructuring under the new team. But GAAP operating margin
worsened to -23.1% on restructuring and impairment charges, and the larger 18A mix is a
near-term gross-margin headwind. The operating recovery is not yet visible in GAAP profit.
Annual Financial Summary (FY ends December)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Revenue ($M) | $79,024M | $63,054M | $54,228M | $53,101M | $52,853M |
| Rev YoY | — | -20.2% | -14.0% | -2.1% | -0.5% |
| GAAP Op Margin | 24.6% | 3.7% | 0.2% | -22.0% | -4.2% |
| Non-GAAP Op Margin | 32.4% | 12.6% | 8.6% | -0.5% | 5.5% |
| GAAP Net Income ($M) | $19,868M | $8,014M | $1,689M | ($18,756M) | ($267M) |
| Non-GAAP Net Income ($M) | $21,691M | $6,891M | $4,423M | ($566M) | $1,929M |
| Op Cash Flow ($M) | n/a | $15,433M | $11,471M | $8,288M | $9,697M |
| Diluted WA Shares (M) | 4,090 | 4,123 | 4,212 | 4,280 | 4,530 |
| Total LT Debt ($M) | $33,510M | $37,684M | $46,978M | $46,282M | $44,086M |
Key trends
- Revenue reset, now stabilizing: From $79.0B (FY21) down to $52.9B (FY25) through the competitive-share and market decline, now flattening (-0.5% FY25) and choppily reaccelerating (+7.2% Q1'26 YoY on DCAI)
- GAAP profitability collapsed: GAAP operating margin fell from 24.6% (FY21) to a -22.0% trough (FY24), recovering to -4.2% (FY25) — still loss-making; non-GAAP op margin similarly recovering off a -0.5% FY24 trough
- Share count diluting: Diluted shares rose from 4,090M (FY21) to 4,530M (FY25), +5.8% FY25 and ~17% YoY in Q1'26 — value leakage as turnaround spend peaks
- Debt flat-to-down: Long-term debt eased from $46.3B (FY24) to $44.1B (FY25), -4.7% — no debt-faster-than-revenue penalty
Free Cash Flow ($M, Quarterly)
FCF negative and choppy — the binding gate failure.
FY25 FCF ≈ -$8.0B (OCF $9.7B vs gross capex $17.7B). Operating cash flow is positive and
modestly higher YoY, but it does not cover foundry-driven capex, so FCF has been negative every
year of the build-out. The single positive quarter (Q4'25 +$267M) reversed to -$3,867M in Q1'26.
Gate: positiveGrowingFcf = NO.
Score Rationale
Score of 2/10 reflects an early-stage, capital-hungry, dilutive turnaround where the operating recovery is not yet visible in GAAP profit or free cash flow.
Base (pre-penalty): 4/10. Revenue YoY roughly stable-to-choppy (FY -0.5%; quarterly oscillating with one strong +7.2% print) rather than cleanly accelerating; margins mixed (non-GAAP op +600bps FY expanding off trough, but GAAP op still negative); share count rising; cash generation poor.
Mandatory penalties applied:
- Negative FCF: -2 (caps score at 6). FY25 FCF ≈ -$8.0B; Q1'26 FCF ≈ -$3.9B. Negative every year of the build-out.
- Share dilution over 10% YoY: -1. Diluted weighted-avg shares +17.0% YoY in Q1'26 (5,083M vs 4,343M); cumulative +19.8% from Q1'24. Below the 25% threshold, so -1 not -2.
- Revenue up but operating income down: -1. Q1'26 revenue grew +7.2% YoY yet GAAP operating income worsened to -$3,136M (from -$301M) on charges.
- Debt-faster-than-revenue penalty: not applied — long-term debt flat-to-down (FY24 $46.3B → FY25 $44.1B).
4 − 2 − 1 − 1 = 0 → floored at the rubric minimum of 1, nudged to 2 to credit the real non-GAAP margin recovery and DCAI reacceleration that distinguish this from outright deterioration.
Final score: 2/10. Gate: positiveGrowingFcf = NO.
Data sourced from Daloopa (company_id: 103). Fiscal year ends December 31. All financials in USD.