Financial Trends -- 4/10
Intel scores 4/10 on financial trends. Revenue has been essentially flat for three consecutive years
(~$53B), gross margins remain compressed at ~37% non-GAAP (vs. 44% in 2023), GAAP EPS is barely
breakeven (-$0.06 in FY2025), and adjusted FCF has been negative for three straight years. Share
dilution of +15.8% YoY from strategic equity raises (SoftBank, NVIDIA) is severe. However, trajectory
is improving: 5 consecutive quarters beating guidance, non-GAAP operating income turned meaningfully
positive in 2025, OpEx cut 15% YoY, debt reduced by $3.4B, and 2H 2025 FCF was positive at $3.1B.
Penalties: -2 for negative full-year FCF, -1 for dilution above 10%. Turnaround credit: +3.
Weight: 25%
FY2025 Revenue
$52.9B
-0.5% YoY | flat 3 years
Non-GAAP GM
36.7%
Down from 43.5% in FY2023
FY2025 GAAP EPS
-$0.06
Non-GAAP $0.42 | 120x P/E
FY2025 Adj. FCF
-$1.6B
2H 2025 positive at +$3.1B
Revenue Trajectory -- Flat at ~$53B for 3 Years
Revenue essentially flat for 3 consecutive years around $53B.
YoY growth turned slightly positive in Q3 2025 (+2.8%) but Q4 2025 reverted to -4.1% due to
supply constraints and Altera deconsolidation. Management claims demand exceeds supply on Intel 7
and Intel 10 nodes, limiting $1B+ of potential revenue. FY2026 consensus of ~$57.5B implies
+8.8% growth -- the first meaningful acceleration since 2021.
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue ($M) | $54,228M | $53,101M | $52,853M |
| YoY Growth | — | -2.1% | -0.5% |
| CCG - Client | $29,258M | $31,042M | $32,228M |
| DCAI - Data Center | $15,521M | $13,781M | $16,919M |
| Mobileye | $2,079M | $1,654M | $1,900M |
FY2023 $54.2B, FY2024 $53.1B (-2.1%), FY2025 $52.9B (-0.5%). Fifth consecutive quarter above guidance in Q4 2025. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Segment Revenue -- DCAI Strongest, CCG Largest
DCAI is the standout -- grew +22.5% FY2025 YoY, the fastest sequential growth this decade.
Q4 2025 DCAI revenue of $4.7B was +8.9% YoY, driven by AI head nodes and Granite Rapids ramp.
Custom ASIC revenue hit $1B annualized run rate. CCG (55% of revenue) grew +3.9% FY2025 but
is being mixed down by older Raptor Lake at lower ASPs. Mobileye recovered from the 2024
inventory correction but remains below 2023 levels. Intel Foundry (not shown) includes ~$4B/quarter
intercompany revenue but external foundry was only $222M in Q4 2025 -- it remains a massive
cost center losing $2-3B per quarter.
| Metric | Q1 24 | Q2 24 | Q3 24 | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCG ($M) | $7,533M | $7,410M | $7,330M | $8,769M | $7,629M | $7,871M | $8,535M | $8,193M |
| DCAI ($M) | $3,036M | $3,045M | $3,349M | $4,351M | $4,126M | $3,939M | $4,117M | $4,737M |
| Intel Foundry ($M) | $4,369M | $4,320M | $4,352M | $4,340M | $4,667M | $4,417M | $4,235M | $4,507M |
| Mobileye ($M) | $239M | $440M | $485M | $490M | $438M | $507M | $504M | $451M |
Segment definitions recast in 2025; Foundry includes intercompany (~$4B+/qtr). Altera deconsolidated Q3 2025 (Silver Lake 51% stake). Data sourced from Daloopa.
Gross Margin -- Compressed, Not Recovering
Non-GAAP gross margin of 36.7% in FY2025 is well below the 43.5% in FY2023 and semiconductor peer averages.
Margins collapsed in Q3 2024 (massive impairments) and have not recovered. Q4 2025 non-GAAP GM
of 37.9% remains 11 points below the Q4 2023 peak of 48.8%. Intel 18A ramp costs, Lunar Lake
outsourcing (memory in package), and foundry startup costs are structural headwinds. Management
targets 40% as the near-term goal.
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-GAAP GM % | 43.5% | 36.0% | 36.7% |
| GAAP EPS | 0.4% | -4.4% | -0.1% |
GAAP results heavily distorted by $10B+ restructuring charges, asset impairments (especially Q3 2024). Non-GAAP strips restructuring, SBC, and impairments. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Operating Income -- Recovering from 2024 Disaster
Non-GAAP operating income recovered to +$2.9B in FY2025 from -$254M in FY2024.
The improvement is driven more by OpEx cuts ($16.5B in 2025 vs. $19.4B in 2024, -15%) than revenue
growth. FY2025 non-GAAP op margin of 5.5% remains well below FY2023 at 8.7%. GAAP operating
income swung wildly due to restructuring charges -- Q3 2024 GAAP op loss was -$9.1B alone.
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-GAAP Op Margin | 8.7% | -0.5% | 5.5% |
| FY GAAP EPS | 0.4% | -4.4% | -0.1% |
GAAP includes $10B+ restructuring charges in FY2024, segment restatements. OpEx reduced 15% YoY to $16.5B. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Earnings Per Share -- Barely Breakeven on GAAP Basis
GAAP EPS essentially breakeven in FY2025 (-$0.06) -- massive improvement from FY2024 (-$4.38) but still below FY2023 ($0.40).
Non-GAAP EPS was $0.42 in FY2025, up $0.55 YoY driven by cost cuts. At $50.38, the stock trades
at ~120x non-GAAP EPS, pricing in significant earnings growth. Consensus non-GAAP EPS of ~$1.25
for FY2026 implies a 40x forward P/E -- still demanding for a turnaround story with compressed margins.
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY26E | FY27E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAAP EPS | $0.40 | $-4.38 | $-0.06 | — | — |
| Non-GAAP EPS | — | — | $0.42 | $1.25 | $2.10 |
FY2025 non-GAAP EPS of $0.42 per management (Q4 2025 call). FY26/27 consensus estimates approximate (Bloomberg). At $50.38, stock trades ~120x trailing non-GAAP EPS. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Free Cash Flow -- Negative 3 Years, 2H 2025 Inflection
FCF has been negative for 3 straight years due to $18B+ annual gross CapEx for foundry buildout.
FY2023: -$11.9B, FY2024: -$2.2B, FY2025: -$1.6B. The trajectory is clearly improving. Critically,
2H 2025 adjusted FCF was positive at +$3.1B ($896M in Q3 + $2,222M in Q4) -- a key milestone.
Gross CapEx was $17.7B in FY2025 with ~$6.5B in offsets (CHIPS Act, partner contributions).
Management guided positive adjusted FCF for full year 2026 as CapEx moderates and revenue grows.
Penalty: -2 for negative full-year FCF.
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adj. FCF ($M) | $-11,853M | $-2,228M | $-1,612M |
FCF improving: FY2023 -$11.9B, FY2024 -$2.2B, FY2025 -$1.6B. 2H 2025 positive at +$3.1B. Guided FCF positive for full year 2026. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Share Dilution -- Severe at +15.8% YoY
Diluted shares grew from 4,154M in Q1 2023 to ~5,000M in Q4 2025 -- +20.4% dilution over 3 years.
The Q4 2024 to Q4 2025 dilution was +15.8% (4,319M to ~5,000M), driven by SoftBank ($5B investment),
NVIDIA ($5B investment), SBC, and other equity issuances. Management guided Q1 2026 share count of
5.1B shares growing in line with stock-based compensation. This severely erodes per-share economics.
Penalty: -1 for dilution above 10%.
SoftBank invested $5B, NVIDIA invested $5B. Diluted shares guided to 5.1B for Q1 2026. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Debt -- Declining but Still $46.6B on $53B Revenue
Debt reduced by ~$3.4B in 2025 to $46.6B -- positive deleveraging signal.
Management committed to continued deleveraging as a top priority, with plans to retire all $2.5B
of 2026 maturities. However, $46.6B total debt on $52.9B revenue is still very high leverage
(0.88x debt/revenue). The no-penalty assessment is appropriate since debt declined -6.9% while
revenue declined only -0.5%.
$4.3B repayment in Q3 2025, $3.7B total for the year. Plan to retire all $2.5B of 2026 maturities. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Score Calculation -- Penalties and Turnaround Credit
| Factor | Assessment | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY | Flat/slightly declining (-0.5% FY2025 vs FY2024) | 4/10 |
| Non-GAAP GM | +70bps YoY but well below 2023; 36.7% vs. 43.5% | 4/10 |
| Share Dilution | Severe: +15.8% YoY | 2/10 |
| Adjusted FCF | Negative full-year but improving; 2H positive | 4/10 |
| Non-GAAP Op Margin | Recovered to 5.5% from -0.5% | 5/10 |
| Weighted Base Score | ~4/10 | |
| Penalty: Negative FCF | FY2025 adj. FCF = -$1.6B | -2 |
| Penalty: Share Dilution >10% | +15.8% YoY dilution | -1 |
| Pre-Floor Score | 1/10 | |
| Turnaround Credit | 5 consecutive beats, OpEx -15%, debt declining, 2H FCF positive | +3 |
| FINAL SCORE | #C0392B |
Score methodology: weighted base score with penalty modifiers for negative FCF (-2), dilution >10% (-1), and turnaround credit (+3). Calendar FY. Data sourced from Daloopa.