Thematic Exposure -- 7/10

DexCom operates in a CGM duopoly with Abbott (FreeStyle Libre). The theme is continuous glucose monitoring -- a secularly growing category expanding from T1 insulin-dependent into T2 non-insulin, GLP-1 monitoring, and OTC wellness. Oligopoly gate PASS. But DexCom is the #2 player, not the leader -- Abbott has gained US share with Libre 3/4. Held from 8-10 because it is the #2, not the dominant player. Weight: 35%

CGM Duopoly -- DexCom + Abbott

Oligopoly Gate: PASS

The CGM market is effectively a duopoly: DexCom (G7, Stelo) and Abbott (FreeStyle Libre). Medtronic is a distant third. Combined DexCom + Abbott control ~85-90%+ of the market. High-accuracy medical devices with FDA/CE approval create barriers. Oligopoly gate: PASS.

Secular Growth -- T2 Non-Insulin, GLP-1, OTC

Expanding Beyond T1 Diabetes

The CGM theme is expanding beyond T1 diabetes. T2 non-insulin (the largest addressable population) is the growth engine. Stelo is the first OTC CGM for the general wellness market. GLP-1 monitoring integration adds another vector. CMS coverage decisions are key catalysts.

#2 Behind Abbott -- Share Pressure

Key Structural Caveat

DexCom is the #2 player. Abbott's FreeStyle Libre has gained meaningful US share with lower-cost, competitive-accuracy devices. The "leaders remain leaders" principle argues for the #1, not the #2. This is the key structural caveat on the thematic score.

Oligopoly Gate

PASS. DexCom + Abbott ~85-90%+ of CGM. Effective duopoly.

Data sourced from Daloopa (company_id: 6704).