Financial Trends -- 6.5/10
Cummins presents a bifurcated financial profile: a structurally strong Power Systems/Distribution
business (driven by data center power generation) delivering accelerating revenue and margin expansion,
offset by meaningful declines in Engine and Components segments as on-highway truck markets weaken.
Total consolidated revenue is flat-to-down at
$33.7B, but the quality of earnings is
improving as high-margin power gen mix shifts upward. Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded +170 bps YoY
to 17.4%, and Power Systems EBITDA margins reached 22.7% in FY2025. However, Engine segment revenue
declined 7% YoY with compressing margins, Components fell 13% YoY, and Accelera losses widened to $896M.
Weight: 25%
FY2025 Adj. EBITDA Margin
17.4%
+170 bps YoY | Strongest annual improvement in series
FY2025 Power Systems EBITDA Margin
22.7%
+430 bps YoY | +800 bps over 2 years
FY2025 Adj. Diluted EPS
$23.78
+21% vs FY2023 adj. EPS of $19.69 (2-yr CAGR ~10%)
FY2025 Consolidated Revenue
$33.7B
-1.3% YoY | Flat-to-down despite strong power gen
Annual Financial Summary (USD M, FYE December 31)
| Metric | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Sales | 19,811M | 24,021M | 28,074M | 34,065M | 34,102M | 33,670M |
| Rev YoY | — | +21.3% | +16.9% | +21.3% | +0.1% | -1.3% |
| Gross Margin | 4,894M | 5,695M | 6,719M | 8,249M | 8,439M | 8,516M |
| Gross Margin % | 24.7% | 23.7% | 23.9% | 24.2% | 24.7% | 25.3% |
| Adj. EBITDA (excl SI) | — | 3,521M | 3,965M | 5,195M | 5,369M | 5,843M |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | — | 14.7% | 15.1% | 15.3% | 15.7% | 17.4% |
| GAAP Diluted EPS | $12.01 | $14.61 | $15.12 | $5.15 | $28.37 | $20.50 |
| Adj. Diluted EPS | — | — | — | $19.69 | — | $23.78 |
| Capital Expenditures | (528M) | (734M) | (916M) | (1,213M) | (1,208M) | (1,235M) |
| Capex % of Revenue | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% |
| Diluted Shares | 149.0M | 145.9M | 142.3M | 142.7M | 139.1M | 138.7M |
Note: Cummins reports under US GAAP in USD. Calendar fiscal year ends December 31. All figures in
millions of USD except per-share data and percentages. FY2023 GAAP EPS was depressed by the $2.0B
EPA penalty (agreement in principle). FY2024 GAAP EPS was inflated by reversal/gain effects. Adj.
EBITDA excludes special items including EPA penalty, Atmus separation, and Accelera write-downs.
Revenue peaked at ~$34.1B in 2023-2024 and turned negative in 2025.
Total revenue of
$33,670M declined -1.3% YoY despite strong
power gen growth. Five-year CAGR (2020-2025) is +11.2%, but the 2-year CAGR (2023-2025) is -0.6%.
Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded +170 bps to
17.4%, the strongest annual improvement in
the series -- remarkable given declining revenue. Adjusted EPS of
$23.78 grew ~21% vs FY2023. Diluted shares
reduced -7% over 5 years via consistent buybacks.
Segment Revenue (USD M, Annual)
Distribution is now the largest segment at $12.4B; Power Systems is the growth star at +16.5% YoY.
Distribution grew from
$7,136M (FY2020) to
$12,405M (FY2025), driven by power gen demand.
Power Systems accelerated from +13% to +16.5%, reaching
$7,463M. Engine declined -7.1% to
$10,875M, worst since COVID. Components fell
-13.1% for the second consecutive year (partly Atmus divestiture, partly cyclical).
Segment EBITDA and Margins (USD M, Annual)
| Metric | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Engine EBITDA | 1,235M | 1,411M | 1,541M | 1,630M | 1,653M | 1,382M |
| Engine Margin | 15.4% | 14.2% | 14.1% | 14.0% | 14.1% | 12.7% |
| Distribution EBITDA | 665M | 731M | 888M | 1,209M | 1,378M | 1,808M |
| Distribution Margin | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 14.6% |
| Components EBITDA | 961M | 1,180M | 1,346M | 1,840M | 1,591M | 1,398M |
| Components Margin | 16.0% | 15.4% | 13.8% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 13.8% |
| Power Systems EBITDA | 343M | 496M | 596M | 836M | 1,180M | 1,694M |
| Power Systems Margin | 9.4% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 14.7% | 18.4% | 22.7% |
| Accelera EBITDA | (172M) | (223M) | (340M) | (443M) | (764M) | (896M) |
Power Systems EBITDA margin at 22.7% is exceptional -- up +430 bps YoY and +800 bps over 2 years.
Power Systems EBITDA grew from
$343M (FY2020) to
$1,694M (FY2025), a nearly 5x increase.
Distribution margin expanded +250 bps to
14.6%. Engine margin compressed -140 bps to
12.7% due to lower volumes, EPA 2027 launch
costs, and tariff impacts. Accelera losses widened to
($896M) on just $460M of revenue.
Quarterly Trends (CY24Q1 through CY25Q4)
| Metric | CY24Q1 | CY24Q2 | CY24Q3 | CY24Q4 | CY25Q1 | CY25Q2 | CY25Q3 | CY25Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Sales | 8,403M | 8,796M | 8,456M | 8,447M | 8,174M | 8,643M | 8,317M | 8,536M |
| Rev YoY | -0.6% | +1.8% | +0.3% | -1.1% | -2.7% | -1.7% | -1.6% | +1.1% |
| Gross Margin | 2,041M | 2,193M | 2,171M | 2,034M | 2,155M | 2,281M | 2,129M | 1,951M |
| Adj. EBITDA (excl SI) | 1,303M | 1,345M | 1,389M | 1,332M | 1,460M | 1,587M | 1,427M | 1,369M |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | 15.5% | 15.3% | 16.4% | 15.8% | 17.9% | 18.4% | 17.2% | 16.0% |
| GAAP EPS | $14.03 | $5.26 | $5.86 | $3.02 | $5.96 | $6.43 | $3.86 | $4.27 |
| Diluted Shares | 142.1M | 137.9M | 138.1M | 138.4M | 138.3M | 138.5M | 138.8M | 139.0M |
Margin expansion is decelerating: from +310 bps YoY (Q2) to only +20 bps (Q4).
Quarterly revenue was flat-to-slightly-negative for 8 consecutive quarters. Q4 2025 showed the first
positive YoY at +1.1%, a potential stabilization signal. Adj. EBITDA margin peaked at
18.4% in Q2 2025 before declining to
16.0% in Q4, coinciding with EPA 2027 launch
costs flowing through the Engine segment and India tariff impacts.
Quarterly Segment Revenue (USD M)
| Metric | CY24Q1 | CY24Q2 | CY24Q3 | CY24Q4 | CY25Q1 | CY25Q2 | CY25Q3 | CY25Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Engine | 2,928M | 3,151M | 2,913M | 2,720M | 2,771M | 2,899M | 2,605M | 2,600M |
| Distribution | 2,535M | 2,829M | 2,952M | 3,068M | 2,907M | 3,041M | 3,172M | 3,285M |
| Components | 3,332M | 2,982M | 2,724M | 2,641M | 2,670M | 2,705M | 2,329M | 2,445M |
| Power Systems | 1,389M | 1,589M | 1,687M | 1,743M | 1,649M | 1,889M | 1,996M | 1,929M |
| Accelera | 93M | 111M | 110M | 100M | 103M | 105M | 121M | 131M |
Quarterly Segment EBITDA (USD M)
Engine EBITDA margin collapsed from 16.5% (Q1) to 10.1% (Q4) -- a dramatic H2 deterioration.
Engine quarterly EBITDA fell from
$458M (Q1 2025) to
$263M (Q4 2025). Power Systems EBITDA peaked
at
$457M in Q3 2025. Accelera losses included
significant Q3 write-downs of
($336M) and a Q4 loss of
($374M).
Acceleration / Deceleration Analysis
| Signal | Detail | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue Growth | From +21% in 2023 to -1.3% in 2025; peaked at $34.1B | Decelerating |
| Power Gen Revenue | From +47% peak Q3 2024 to +14% Q4 2025; still healthy high-teens growth | Decelerating from Peak |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | +170 bps FY to 17.4%, but Q4 YoY improvement only +20 bps vs Q2 at +310 bps | Plateauing |
| PS EBITDA Margin | +430 bps FY to 22.7%, still +370 bps in Q4 -- clear structural expansion | Accelerating |
| Engine Revenue | -7.1% FY, peaked at -10.6% in Q3 2025; EPA 2027 uncertainty ahead | Decelerating Sharply |
| Gross Margin | +60 bps to 25.3%, a 5-year high -- favorable power gen mix shift | Accelerating |
| Accelera Losses | $896M EBITDA loss in 2025 vs $764M in 2024; ~260 bps drag on consolidated margin | Worsening |
| Share Buybacks | -7% reduction over 5 years; pace slowed to -0.3% in 2025 vs -2.5% in 2024 | Decelerating |
Penalty / Modifier Assessment
| Factor | Impact | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Flat/declining total revenue | -1.0 | Consolidated revenue -1.3% despite strong power gen growth. |
| Engine cyclical decline | -0.5 | -7.1% with margin compression; EPA 2027 launch cost overhang. |
| Accelera losses widening | -0.5 | $896M drag, nearly 2x revenue; unclear path to breakeven. |
| Power gen growth decelerating | -0.5 | From +47% to +14% quarterly YoY; base effect growing. |
| Components structural decline | -0.5 | -13% for 2 consecutive years (Atmus divestiture + cyclical). |
| Exceptional margin expansion | +1.0 | Adj EBITDA +170 bps on declining revenue = strong execution. |
| PS margin quality | +0.5 | 22.7% EBITDA margin with continued expansion trajectory. |
| Consistent share reduction | +0.5 | -7% diluted share reduction over 5 years via buybacks. |
Final Score: 6.5 / 10. Base of 7.0 for a company with strong
margin expansion, a powerful secular growth engine in power gen, and improving earnings quality.
Penalties: total revenue declining (-1.0), engine cyclical weakness and EPA 2027 uncertainty (-0.5),
Accelera losses widening (-0.5), power gen growth decelerating (-0.5), components declining (-0.5).
Credits: adj. EBITDA margin expansion on declining revenue (+1.0), PS margin quality at 22.7% (+0.5),
consistent share reduction (+0.5). The score reflects a company in transition -- the legacy on-highway
engine business is in cyclical decline while the power generation business (data center driven) is
delivering exceptional growth and margin expansion. A score of 7+ would require reacceleration in
total revenue and a clear path to Accelera loss reduction.
Transcript Context (Q3 2024 - Q4 2025 Earnings Calls)
Data Center Demand: Total company data center revenue of ~$3.5B in 2025, up 30-35%
YoY. Two-year backlog for large engines with orders being taken into 2027. Management described this
as a "low-risk weighted play on the AI boom." Capacity being added for power gen.
EPA 2027 Pre-Buy Uncertainty: Regulations under review. If unchanged, engine product
launches proceed in 2026. Parallel operating systems running (old and new engine platforms), creating
cost headwinds. Engine EBITDA margins compressed -140 bps as a result.
Accelera Restructuring: Electrolyzer demand described as "sharp and dramatic" decline.
Q3 2025 included significant non-cash charges. Management stated they are "not comfortable sitting at
the losses" and are executing cost actions. Restructuring expected to improve 2026 loss trajectory.
Aftermarket/Distribution Opportunity: Emerging long-term opportunity as installed base
of power gen units grows. Backup power units have minimal aftermarket demand today, but the installed
base is building. Distribution segment is the clear aftermarket beneficiary.
Tariff Impacts: India tariffs impacted Q4 2025 Power Systems margins. For 2026, tariff
pass-through on revenue is ~EPS neutral at midpoint but dilutive to EBITDA margin by ~50 bps.
Daloopa (company_id: 344) and Cummins Inc. earnings call transcripts (Q3 2024 - Q4 2025)