Financial Trends -- 8/10

• FY2025 revenue of $25.5B vs $23.6B in FY2024, up 8.3% YoY
• YoY growth accelerated from +10.2% (Q1 2025) to +12.9% (Q4 2025), with Q3 2025 a seasonal flat quarter
• Revenue is relatively stable given pass-through dynamics; growth reflects higher power pricing and PPA volumes
• FY2026E consensus revenue of ~$27.2B implies continued mid-single-digit growth plus Calpine contribution

• FY2025 full-year Adj. Operating EPS of $9.39, up 8.3% from $8.67 in FY2024 and 50% from $6.28 in FY2023
• Three consecutive quarters of double-digit YoY growth (Q1-Q3 2025: +17.6%, +13.7%, +10.9%)
• Q4 2025 showed -5.7% YoY softness, driven by timing items (stock compensation, ZEC seasonality) -- not structural
• Seasonal pattern: Q3 is the strongest quarter (summer peak power pricing), Q2 is the weakest

• FY2025 adj. operating earnings of $2,944M vs $2,735M in FY2024, up 7.6% YoY
• Q3 2025 was the standout quarter at $952M, reflecting peak summer generation and pricing
• Q4 2025 declined 6.0% YoY, tracking the same timing items that impacted EPS
• Earnings trajectory supports the 20%+ EPS CAGR target through 2029

• The CFO inflection is the most important financial development: from ($2,464M) in FY2024 to +$4,237M in FY2025
• This represents a $6.7B year-over-year swing driven by hedging book unwind and collateral release
• FY2022 through FY2024 showed persistently negative CFO (($2.4B), ($5.3B), ($2.5B)) from collateral postings
• The swing to sustained positive FCF generation unlocks the $5B share buyback authorization and growth capex
• At least $2B of annual incremental FCF expected from Calpine starting FY2026

• Capacity factor ranged from 93.1% to 96.8% over the 8-quarter period -- consistently above 93%
• Q3 2025 peak of 96.8% reflects strong summer operations with minimal outage activity
• Q4 2025 dip to 93.1% reflects normal refueling outage timing, not operational deterioration
• Industry average nuclear capacity factor is ~90-91%; CEG operates ~4 points above peers

• Quarterly nuclear generation is remarkably stable at 45,100-46,500 GWh per quarter
• FY2025 total of 182,690 GWh vs 181,711 GWh in FY2024 (+0.5% YoY) -- fleet running at full capacity
• Q3 2025 was the peak quarter at 46,477 GWh, consistent with fewer planned outages in summer
• Fleet capacity of ~22,069 MW is effectively unchanged since FY2023 -- growth will come from TMI restart (+835 MW)

• Revenue recovered to $25.5B in FY2025 after a dip to $23.6B in FY2024 -- relatively stable given pass-through dynamics
• Operating income peaked at $4.4B in FY2024, then moderated to $3.1B in FY2025 (mark-to-market hedging swings)
• Adj. Operating EPS compounded at ~22% CAGR from $6.28 (FY2023) to $9.39 (FY2025) -- the cleanest growth metric
• CFO trajectory tells the real story: ($2.4B), ($5.3B), ($2.5B), +$4.2B -- a structural inflection
• Nuclear generation grew from 173,350 GWh (FY2022) to 182,690 GWh (FY2025), +5.4% over 3 years
• Fleet capacity factor held above 94% every year -- world-class operational reliability

• FY2026 guidance of $11-$12 Adj. Operating EPS includes ~$2 of Calpine accretion
• Consensus at ~$11.63 sits roughly mid-range -- management has beaten guidance every year since spin-off
• 20%+ base EPS CAGR through 2029 is grounded in contracted cash flows, not heroic assumptions
• No buyback is assumed in the 20% CAGR -- $5B authorization is purely additive (CFO noted $0.50 upside)
• Calpine adds $2B+ annual incremental FCF despite higher-than-expected DOJ divestitures and purchase accounting headwinds

Adj. Operating EPS compounded at ~22% since FY2023, from $6.28 to $9.39 -- a 50% cumulative increase in two years. The massive CFO swing from ($2.5B) in FY2024 to +$4.2B in FY2025 reflects the hedging book unwind and marks a structural inflection to sustainable free cash flow generation. The nuclear fleet operates consistently above 94% capacity factor, ~4 points above the industry average, providing a reliable earnings base.

The Calpine combination adds significant gas/geothermal earnings and at least $2B annual incremental FCF, while management targets 20%+ base EPS CAGR through 2029 -- with no buyback assumed. FY2026 guidance of $11-$12 Adj. Operating EPS includes ~$2 of Calpine accretion. Q4 2025 showed some YoY softness in Adj. EPS (-5.7%), driven by timing items (stock compensation, ZEC seasonality), not structural deterioration. Revenue growth is modest but appropriate for a generation company with pass-through dynamics.

Score: 8/10 -- Strong and accelerating financial trajectory with a real FCF inflection, but the revenue growth profile is inherently lower than high-growth tech and the Q4 2025 EPS softness warrants monitoring. The 20%+ EPS CAGR target and Calpine accretion provide a clear path to continued earnings compounding.