Financial Trends -- 4/10
Peabody Energy is the largest private-sector coal producer. Revenue declined -22% from the FY2023
peak ($4,947M) to FY2025 ($3,862M) as seaborne thermal export prices normalized from the
2022-2023 energy crisis. Adj. EBITDA collapsed -67% from $1,364M to $455M. EPS went from $5.00
to -$0.43. FCF turned negative in FY2025 due to $750M Centurion met coal investment. However,
sequential Q4 2025 showed early stabilization with EBITDA improving 19% QoQ from the Q2 2025 trough.
The decline is almost entirely price-driven -- volumes have been stable to growing.
Weight: 25%
FY2025 Revenue
$3,861M
-8.9% YoY | price-driven decline
FY2025 Adj EBITDA
$455M
-47.9% YoY | Q4 up 19% QoQ
FY2025 Diluted EPS
-$0.43
vs $2.73 in FY2024 | $5.00 in FY2023
Cash / Net Cash
$575M / $254M
LT Debt ~$321M | convertibles due 2028
Total Revenue (Quarterly, USD M)
Revenue declined -22% from FY2023 peak to FY2025 -- sustained decline, narrowing.
Revenue declines reflect normalization from 2022-2023 energy crisis pricing, particularly in
seaborne thermal export prices (Newcastle benchmark down ~40% from peak). Volume has been
stable-to-growing; the decline is almost entirely price-driven. YoY declines ranged from
-27.9% (Q1 2024) to -4.7% (Q1 2025), with the trend narrowing but still negative across
all recent quarters.
| Quarter | Q1 23 | Q2 23 | Q3 23 | Q4 23 | Q1 24 | Q2 24 | Q3 24 | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue ($M) | $1,364M | $1,269M | $1,079M | $1,235M | $984M | $1,042M | $1,088M | $1,123M | $937M | $890M | $1,012M | $1,022M |
| YoY Growth | — | — | — | — | -27.9% | -17.9% | 0.8% | -9.1% | -4.7% | -14.6% | -7.0% | -9.0% |
Revenue peaked at $4,947M in FY2023 (calendar year). FY2024: $4,237M (-14.3%). FY2025: $3,861M (-8.9%). Data sourced from Daloopa.
Segment Revenue (Quarterly, USD M)
Seaborne Met is the one segment showing recovery -- Q4 2025 at $305M was highest since Q4 2023.
Driven by Centurion development tons and improving PLV pricing. Seaborne Thermal fell sharply
(Q2 2025 trough at $195M vs Q2 2023 peak at $400M). PRB volumes grew 6% YoY in FY2025 but
pricing is flat (~$13.50/ton). Other US Thermal is in steady decline.
| Segment | Q1 23 | Q2 23 | Q3 23 | Q4 23 | Q1 24 | Q2 24 | Q3 24 | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seaborne Thermal | $347M | $400M | $297M | $286M | $284M | $308M | $313M | $309M | $265M | $195M | $243M | $206M |
| Seaborne Met | $288M | $373M | $247M | $394M | $247M | $294M | $243M | $272M | $220M | $252M | $259M | $305M |
| PRB | $305M | $260M | $313M | $320M | $254M | $222M | $305M | $318M | $276M | $276M | $301M | $300M |
| Other US Thermal | $249M | $200M | $228M | $211M | $192M | $202M | $217M | $212M | $169M | $155M | $192M | $192M |
| Total Revenue | $1,364M | $1,269M | $1,079M | $1,235M | $984M | $1,042M | $1,088M | $1,123M | $937M | $890M | $1,012M | $1,022M |
Segment totals may not sum exactly due to corporate/other eliminations. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Adjusted EBITDA (Quarterly, USD M)
EBITDA still declining YoY but rate of decline is narrowing and sequential trend improving.
YoY decline narrowed from -70% (Q2 2025) to -33% (Q4 2025). Sequential improvement from
Q2 2025 trough ($93M) to Q4 2025 ($118M) -- up 19% QoQ in Q4 -- suggests the bottom may
be forming. FY2025 EBITDA of $455M was down -48% from $873M (FY2024) and -67% from the
$1,364M peak (FY2023).
| Quarter | Q1 23 | Q2 23 | Q3 23 | Q4 23 | Q1 24 | Q2 24 | Q3 24 | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adj EBITDA ($M) | $391M | $358M | $270M | $345M | $161M | $310M | $225M | $177M | $144M | $93M | $100M | $118M |
| YoY Growth | — | — | — | — | -59% | -13% | -17% | -49% | -10% | -70% | -56% | -33% |
FY totals: FY2023 $1,364M, FY2024 $873M (-36%), FY2025 $455M (-48%). Data sourced from Daloopa.
Diluted EPS (Quarterly)
Severe earnings compression: FY2025 EPS of -$0.43 vs $2.73 (FY2024) vs $5.00 (FY2023).
EPS turned negative in Q2 2025 (-$0.22) and Q3 2025 (-$0.57) before recovering to $0.09
in Q4 2025. The earnings decline tracks the EBITDA collapse but is amplified by fixed costs,
depreciation, and Centurion-related charges. Forward P/E ~10x on consensus suggests the
market expects meaningful earnings recovery in 2026-2027.
| Quarter | Q1 23 | Q2 23 | Q3 23 | Q4 23 | Q1 24 | Q2 24 | Q3 24 | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diluted EPS ($) | $1.7 | $1.2 | $0.8 | $1.4 | $0.3 | $1.4 | $0.7 | $0.3 | $0.3 | $-0.2 | $-0.6 | $0.1 |
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diluted EPS ($) | $5.0 | $2.7 | $-0.4 |
| YoY Growth | — | -45.4% | -115.8% |
FY2025 EPS of -$0.43 includes Centurion investment-period drag. Forward P/E ~10x on consensus. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Balance Sheet and Cash Flow (Quarterly)
Cash declined $394M over 2 years (YE23 $969M to YE25 $575M) -- driven by $750M Centurion investment.
LT debt is essentially flat at ~$321M (convertible notes due 2028). Net cash position of ~$254M
at YE25. FCF turned negative in FY2025 (-$77M) due to elevated capex ($411M vs $349M in FY2023).
Centurion investment is now substantially complete -- capex should drop $150M+ in 2026, which
would restore positive FCF.
| Quarter | Q1 23 | Q2 23 | Q3 23 | Q4 23 | Q1 24 | Q2 24 | Q3 24 | Q4 24 | Q1 25 | Q2 25 | Q3 25 | Q4 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash ($M) | $892M | $1,081M | $989M | $969M | $856M | $622M | $773M | $700M | $697M | $586M | $603M | $575M |
| LT Debt ($M) | $322M | $322M | $321M | $321M | $323M | $323M | $324M | $332M | $331M | $329M | $322M | $321M |
| Shares (M) | 144.7 | 132.8 | 131.1 | 128.4 | 125.8 | 125.9 | 121.5 | 121.6 | 121.6 | 121.6 | 121.6 | 121.7 |
| OpCF ($M) | $386M | $353M | $13M | $282M | $119M | $8M | $360M | $120M | $120M | $23M | $122M | $69M |
| Capex ($M) | $56M | $67M | $68M | $158M | $61M | $106M | $99M | $136M | $70M | $94M | $116M | $131M |
| FCF ($M) | $330M | $286M | $-55M | $124M | $58M | $-98M | $261M | $-16M | $50M | $-71M | $6M | $-62M |
Share count declined 15.9% from 144.7M (Q1 2023) to 121.7M (Q4 2025) via aggressive buybacks. Buybacks paused in 2025 as FCF turned negative. Data sourced from Daloopa.
Share Count Reduction and Capital Return
Shares declined 15.9% from 144.7M to 121.7M over 3 years -- aggressive buybacks.
The share count reduction was concentrated in 2023 (144.7M to 128.4M) with further reduction
in H1-H2 2024 (to 121.5M). Buybacks stabilized in 2025 as FCF turned negative due to
Centurion investment. No dilution penalty -- shares declined consistently.
Acceleration / Deceleration Analysis
| Signal | Detail | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue YoY | Sustained decline across all quarters; narrowing from -27.9% (Q1 24) to -4.7% (Q1 25) | Declining but Narrowing |
| Adj EBITDA | YoY decline narrowing: -70% (Q2 25) to -33% (Q4 25); sequential up 19% QoQ in Q4 | Bottom Forming |
| EPS | $5.00 to $2.73 to -$0.43 over FY23-FY25; Q4 25 turned positive ($0.09) | Severe Compression |
| Seaborne Thermal | Declined from $400M (Q2 23) to $195M (Q2 25); price normalization from energy crisis | Declining |
| Seaborne Met | Q4 25 at $305M -- highest since Q4 23; Centurion ramp + PLV pricing | Recovering |
| PRB | Volume +6% YoY but flat pricing (~$13.50/ton); stable-ish | Stable |
| Cash / FCF | Cash down $394M over 2 years; FCF negative in FY25 due to Centurion capex (now complete) | Negative FCF |
| Share Reduction | -15.9% over 3 years; aggressive buybacks concentrated in 2023-2024; paused in 2025 | Positive (Paused) |
Score Derivation
| Factor | Assessment | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Base Score | Revenue YoY decelerating, EBITDA declining sharply, EPS negative -- 3-4 range | 3.5 |
| Sequential improvement | Q4 2025 EBITDA up 19% QoQ; decline rate narrowing; bottom forming | +0.5 |
| Decline is price-driven, not volume | Volumes stable-to-growing; decline reflects energy crisis price normalization | +0.5 |
| Share count reduction | -15.9% over 3 years; aggressive buybacks; no dilution | +0.5 |
| Negative FCF penalty | FY2025 FCF of -$77M; rubric mandates -2 penalty for negative FCF | -2.0 |
| Partial penalty relief | Negative FCF entirely explained by $750M Centurion investment (now complete, $2.1B NPV) | +1.0 |
| Net Adjustment | +0.5 + 0.5 + 0.5 - 2.0 + 1.0 = +0.5 | +0.5 |
| Final Score | Base 3.5 plus +0.5 net adjustment | 4/10 |
2026 outlook: Centurion ramp + capex drop $150M+ should dramatically improve FCF. Commodity-driven business -- score sensitive to coal prices. Calendar FY. Data sourced from Daloopa.