Financial Trends -- 2/10
Cyclical commodity producer in structural decline. Across every core trajectory metric the trend is
decelerating/deteriorating: revenue down three of the last four years and four of the last five quarters
YoY, Adjusted EBITDA collapsing (~2,520 bps margin compression from the 2022 peak), GAAP net income now in a
loss position, and free cash flow turning negative on a TTM basis as the Centurion met-coal project consumes
capital. The only positives are a steadily declining share count and flat/net-cash debt. A textbook
"trajectory over absolutes" red flag, partly cushioned by a fortress balance sheet. Mandatory negative-FCF
penalty applied.
Weight: 25%
Adj EBITDA Margin
8.5%
-2,520 bps from 2022 peak | Compressing
FCF
Negative
TTM negative (Centurion build) | Reversed
Share Count
Declining
-14% since 2022 peak | No dilution
Quarterly Metrics ($M) -- last 9 quarters, YoY
| Metric | Q1'24 | Q2'24 | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Latest YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 983.6 | 1,042.0 | 1,088.0 | 1,123.1 | 937.0 | 890.1 | 1,012.1 | 1,022.3 | 973.3 | +3.9% |
| Revenue YoY % | — | — | — | — | -4.7% | -14.6% | -7.0% | -9.0% | +3.9% | bounce |
| Tons sold (M) | 27.4 | 25.6 | 31.9 | 33.1 | 28.9 | 28.7 | 32.5 | 31.9 | 29.6 | +8.0% |
| Adjusted EBITDA | 160.5 | 309.7 | 224.8 | 176.7 | 144.0 | 93.3 | 99.5 | 118.1 | 82.5 | -42.7% |
| Adj EBITDA margin | 16.3% | 29.7% | 20.7% | 15.7% | 15.4% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 8.5% | -780 bps |
| Net income to common | 39.6 | 199.4 | 101.3 | 30.6 | 34.4 | (27.6) | (70.1) | 10.4 | (32.4) | loss |
| Wtd-avg basic shares (M) | 128.1 | 126.0 | 124.9 | n/a | 121.7 | 121.7 | 121.7 | n/a | 122.0 | -4.8% |
| Long-term debt | 323.3 | 323.2 | 323.7 | 332.3 | 331.2 | 329.2 | 321.8 | 321.2 | 320.9 | -3.1% |
No clean acceleration. Sequential revenue YoY rates ran
-4.7% → -14.6% → -7.0% → -9.0% → +3.9%. The Q1'26 +3.9% is a single print off a
depressed comp (Q1'25 was already -4.7%), driven by met/PRB volume, not price. Adjusted EBITDA margin
compressed ~2,520 bps from the 2022 peak (37.0% → 11.8% FY25) and sits at 8.5% in Q1'26 -- far
beyond the 100 bps "1" anchor. Volume up while revenue/EBITDA fall = realized-price collapse.
Segment Revenue ($M, quarterly)
Segment Adjusted EBITDA ($M, quarterly)
Seaborne Met is the swing segment and the source of weakness.
Per the Q1'26 transcript, the met segment posted an adjusted EBITDA loss of ~$7M (a ~$80M Centurion
ramp drag), with met volume 400k tons below plan. FY26 Centurion sales were cut to 2.5M tons (from 3.5M)
and the longwall move pushed to early 2027.
Annual Metrics (5-year, FY ends December)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | 5yr direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,318.3 | 4,981.9 | 4,946.7 | 4,236.7 | 3,861.5 | Peaked 2022, declining |
| Revenue YoY % | — | +50.1% | -0.7% | -14.4% | -8.9% | Decelerating |
| Tons sold (M) | 130.1 | 123.7 | 126.2 | 118.0 | 122.0 | Flat-to-down |
| Adjusted EBITDA | 916.7 | 1,844.7 | 1,363.9 | 871.7 | 454.9 | Collapsing |
| Adj EBITDA margin | 27.6% | 37.0% | 27.6% | 20.6% | 11.8% | -2,520 bps vs '22 |
| Net income to common | 360.1 | 1,297.1 | 759.6 | 370.9 | (52.9) | Into net loss |
| Available free cash flow | 288.5 | 1,144.9 | 724.1 | ~neg* | ~neg* | Sharply declining |
| Operating cash flow | 420.0 | 1,173.6 | 1,035.5 | — | — | Declining |
| Wtd-avg basic shares (M) | 111.1 | 142.1 | 137.6 | 125.1 | 121.8 | Declining since '22 (good) |
| Long-term debt | 1,078.2 | 320.6 | 320.7 | 332.3 | 321.2 | De-levered, now flat |
* Daloopa's "Available free cash flow" series is populated only through 2024Q3 (cumulative FY2024-YTD through
Q3 was just $37.6M), after which the
company shifted capital into the Centurion build. With an FY2025 GAAP net loss (-$42.5M total),
an ~$80M/qtr Centurion EBITDA drag, and a TTM net-loss P/E, FCF is judged declining and negative on a TTM
basis. This is the single most important fact for the score.
Key trends
- Revenue peaked in 2022 and is declining: $4.98B (2022) to $3.86B (2025), down three of four years; Q1'26 +3.9% is a weak bounce off a depressed comp, not a re-acceleration
- Adjusted EBITDA collapsing: $1.84B (2022) to $455M (2025), a ~2,520 bps margin compression (37.0% to 11.8%), 8.5% in Q1'26
- GAAP into net loss: net income to common swung from +$370.9M (FY24) to -$52.9M (FY25); Q1'26 -$32.4M
- FCF negative on a TTM basis: fell from over $1.1B (2022) as Centurion consumes capital -- the load-bearing fact for the score
- Share count declining (positive): down ~14% since the 2022 peak, no dilution; long-term debt flat ~$320M on a net-cash balance sheet
Acceleration / Deceleration read
Revenue: YoY -4.7% → -14.6% → -7.0% → -9.0% →
+3.9% -- no clean acceleration; a single bounce off a depressed comp on volume, not price.
Margins: Adj EBITDA margin -2,520 bps from the 2022 peak, at
8.5% in Q1'26 -- compressing far more than the 100 bps "1" anchor.
Share count: declining ~4-5% YoY, down ~14% since 2022 -- a
genuine positive. FCF: decelerating from $1.14B (2022) to
negative TTM as Centurion consumes capital. Debt: flat ~$320M
for three-plus years; net-cash balance sheet -- not a red flag.
Score Rationale
Score of 2/10 reflects a cyclical commodity producer in structural decline across every core trajectory metric.
Drives 2/10:
- Revenue decelerating (down three of four years, four of five quarters YoY) + margins compressing 100+bps + FCF declining places BTU at the 1-2 anchor
- Adjusted EBITDA collapsed ~2,520 bps from the 2022 peak; GAAP into a net loss
- Mandatory negative-FCF penalty of -2 applied (and hard cap at 6, not binding)
Only offsets (lift raw read to ~3 before the FCF penalty):
- Declining share count, down ~14% since 2022 peak, no dilution
- Flat/declining long-term debt on a net-cash balance sheet -- fortress liquidity is the one genuine cushion
Quality gate -- positiveGrowingFcf: NO. BTU's FCF is neither positive nor growing on a TTM basis; historical positive FCF (2021-2023) has reversed as Centurion consumes cash and GAAP earnings turned to losses.
Data sourced from Daloopa (fundamentals) and FMP (market data). Fiscal year ends December 31. All financials in USD millions unless noted.