Financial Trends -- 6/10
Revenue accelerating (FY26 quarters: +8.2%, +8.1%, +8.4%) on mega-hub build-out and commercial
momentum (+10.4% DIFM). But operating margin compressing (20.5% FY24 to 19.1% FY25, quarters as
low as 16.3%). FCF declining four straight years ($2.9B FY21 to $1.8B FY25) as capex doubled.
Revenue growing but operating income declining triggers -1 penalty. Base 7 - 1 = 6/10.
Weight: 25%
Quarterly Performance (FY25Q1 -- FY26Q3)
| Fiscal Qtr | Net Sales ($M) | YoY | Gross Margin | Op Margin | Dom Comm ($M) | Comm YoY | Total SSS | Diluted EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY25Q1 | $4,280M | +2.1% | 53.0% | 19.7% | $1,128M | +3.2% | 0.4% | $32.52 |
| FY25Q2 | $3,952M | +2.4% | 53.9% | 17.9% | $1,052M | +7.3% | 0.5% | $28.29 |
| FY25Q3 | $4,464M | +5.4% | 52.7% | 19.4% | $1,270M | +10.7% | 3.2% | $35.36 |
| FY25Q4 | $6,243M | +0.6% | 51.5% | 19.2% | $1,762M | +6.0% | 4.5% | $48.71 |
| FY26Q1 | $4,629M | +8.2% | 51.0% | 16.9% | $1,292M | +14.5% | 5.5% | $31.04 |
| FY26Q2 | $4,274M | +8.1% | 52.5% | 16.3% | $1,155M | +9.8% | 5.2% | $27.63 |
| FY26Q3 | $4,841M | +8.4% | 52.1% | 19.1% | $1,403M | +10.4% | 5.5% | $38.07 |
Key Trends
Revenue accelerating from +2% to +8%+ driven by total SSS
reacceleration (0.4% to 5.5%) and commercial gains (+10%+). Domestic commercial sales running
+10-14% YoY across recent quarters on mega-hub build-out.
Margins compressing: operating margin fell from 20.5% FY24 to
19.1% FY25, with FY26 quarters running as low as 16.3%. FCF declining 4 straight years ($2.9B to
$1.8B) as capex doubled ($622M to $1,327M). Share count declining ~3%/yr via buyback.
Data sourced from . FYE late August. All figures linked to source records.
Annual Performance (FY2021 -- FY2025)
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $14,630M | $16,252M | $17,457M | $18,490M | $18,939M |
| Rev YoY | — | +11.1% | +7.4% | +5.9% | +2.4% |
| Gross Margin | 52.8% | 52.1% | 52.0% | 53.1% | 52.6% |
| Op Margin | 20.1% | 20.1% | 19.9% | 20.5% | 19.1% |
| Diluted EPS | $95.19 | $117.19 | $132.36 | $149.55 | $144.87 (-3.1%) |
| FCF ($M) | $2,897M | $2,539M | $2,144M | $1,931M | $1,790M |
| Capex ($M) | $622M | $672M | $797M | $1,073M | $1,327M |
| Diluted Shares (K) | 22,799 | 20,733 | 19,103 | 17,803 | 17,245 |
Data sourced from . FYE late August.
Score Derivation
| Factor | Assessment | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Base Score | Revenue growing, SSS reaccelerating (0.4% to 5.5%), commercial momentum strong (+10%+), store growth accelerating | 7.0 |
| Revenue up, Op Income down | FY25 revenue +2.4% but operating income -4.9%. FY26 Q1/Q2 operating income also declined YoY. Automatic penalty. | -1.0 |
| Net Adjustment | Base 7 - 1 penalty for revenue/op income divergence | -1.0 |
| Final Score | Base 7.0 minus 1.0 penalty | 6/10 |
Data sourced from (company_id: 285). FYE late August.